2019 Locks

[LaHug]

I  Wouldn't be worrying about play on %. The man on the mark is going to be an extra 10 metres back or something so 9/10 kick ins the player is going to move past the square no matter who it is. The guys that take the most kick ins reguardless of weather they usually play on or not will all benefit from it. The backline could become as good as the midfield in terms of scoring if it goes how I think it will

Take two players and assume everyone will play on 90% of the time next season.

Player A takes 6.6 kick ins a game and plays on 2.7 times. If he increases that to 5.9 times and all kicks are effective, that's (5.9 - 2.7) * 4 = 12.8 points increase.

Player B takes 5.6 kick ins a game but never plays on. If he increases that to 5.0 times and all kicks are effective, that's (5.0 - 0) * 4 = 20 points increase.

The players above are Witherden and Ryan based on this article and assuming 19 games played to this point (cbf confirming all the numbers). http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-08-22/kings-of-the-kickin

Based on their averages last year, Witherden would improve from 88.4 to 101.2. Luke Ryan would improve from 89.5 to 109.5. I know who I would be picking based on that...

[shaker]

I  Wouldn't be worrying about play on %. The man on the mark is going to be an extra 10 metres back or something so 9/10 kick ins the player is going to move past the square no matter who it is. The guys that take the most kick ins reguardless of weather they usually play on or not will all benefit from it. The backline could become as good as the midfield in terms of scoring if it goes how I think it will

Take two players and assume everyone will play on 90% of the time next season.

Player A takes 6.6 kick ins a game and plays on 2.7 times. If he increases that to 5.9 times and all kicks are effective, that's (5.9 - 2.7) * 4 = 12.8 points increase.

Player B takes 5.6 kick ins a game but never plays on. If he increases that to 5.0 times and all kicks are effective, that's (5.0 - 0) * 4 = 20 points increase.

The players above are Witherden and Ryan based on this article and assuming 19 games played to this point (cbf confirming all the numbers). http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-08-22/kings-of-the-kickin

Based on their averages last year, Witherden would improve from 88.4 to 101.2. Luke Ryan would improve from 89.5 to 109.5. I know who I would be picking based on that...

That AFL article is very handy Huggie but do we really think that the kick from inside the square that scores 0 still is going to totally disappear surely there are still going to be a lot of times when the advantage for the team is to do this ? gotta remember players and coaches don't care about SC  ;D

[jvalles69]

I  Wouldn't be worrying about play on %. The man on the mark is going to be an extra 10 metres back or something so 9/10 kick ins the player is going to move past the square no matter who it is. The guys that take the most kick ins reguardless of weather they usually play on or not will all benefit from it. The backline could become as good as the midfield in terms of scoring if it goes how I think it will

Take two players and assume everyone will play on 90% of the time next season.

Player A takes 6.6 kick ins a game and plays on 2.7 times. If he increases that to 5.9 times and all kicks are effective, that's (5.9 - 2.7) * 4 = 12.8 points increase.

Player B takes 5.6 kick ins a game but never plays on. If he increases that to 5.0 times and all kicks are effective, that's (5.0 - 0) * 4 = 20 points increase.

The players above are Witherden and Ryan based on this article and assuming 19 games played to this point (cbf confirming all the numbers). http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-08-22/kings-of-the-kickin

Based on their averages last year, Witherden would improve from 88.4 to 101.2. Luke Ryan would improve from 89.5 to 109.5. I know who I would be picking based on that...

That AFL article is very handy Huggie but do we really think that the kick from inside the square that scores 0 still is going to totally disappear surely there are still going to be a lot of times when the advantage for the team is to do this ? gotta remember players and coaches don't care about SC  ;D

Heath Shaw would beg to differ and pretty sure he will demand the kick ins.  :P

[RaisyDaisy]

So with the new kick in rule anytime a player runs outside of the square and kicks it that will count as a disposal (no longer need to kick to self) and if they handball it whilst in the square that will now also count as a disposal

The player on the mark now has to be 10m away from the top of the square, so you'd think this is certainly going to encourage players to run out of the square and kick long more often

Laird, Whitfield and Williams are very popular this year, but don't feature in the kick outs much

Lloyd, Hurn and Witherden were the Top 3 for kick outs last year, and Hurn/Withers had high % for the amount of time they kicked to themselves

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2019-01-17/champion-data-clarifies-disposal-stats-for-kickins

If we assume that everyone will play on 90% of the time, we should be looking for the players that took the most kick ins without playing on! Those players will now start playing on because it's the logical thing to do and get way more bonus points for it. If Hurn and Witherden were typically playing on already, there's no bonus points to be had.

90% could be a stretch but you raise a good point nevertheless

Lloyd had the most kick outs, but only played on 28% of the time so scarily enough there could be upside there

Luke Ryan is the one I'm eyeing. Ryan vs Blakely my decision and I'm seriously looking to pick Ryan. Had him last year as a major pod and he could ramp up the kick outs now too

You just want players who take the most kickouts. Basically nobody plays on even 50% of the time (and if so, barely gets that), so even with Hurn and WitherGOAT having higher % numbers, they still have a showerload of kickouts where they're not playing on to give them a lot of room for improvement.

Ryan is an interesting option though, took a lot of kickouts and basically never played on. Wish I could start just Danger up forward and then 5 defence premos.

I'm going to toy around with Danger Heeney rookies haha

Regretting I mentioned Ryan now too!

[LaHug]

I  Wouldn't be worrying about play on %. The man on the mark is going to be an extra 10 metres back or something so 9/10 kick ins the player is going to move past the square no matter who it is. The guys that take the most kick ins reguardless of weather they usually play on or not will all benefit from it. The backline could become as good as the midfield in terms of scoring if it goes how I think it will

Take two players and assume everyone will play on 90% of the time next season.

Player A takes 6.6 kick ins a game and plays on 2.7 times. If he increases that to 5.9 times and all kicks are effective, that's (5.9 - 2.7) * 4 = 12.8 points increase.

Player B takes 5.6 kick ins a game but never plays on. If he increases that to 5.0 times and all kicks are effective, that's (5.0 - 0) * 4 = 20 points increase.

The players above are Witherden and Ryan based on this article and assuming 19 games played to this point (cbf confirming all the numbers). http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-08-22/kings-of-the-kickin

Based on their averages last year, Witherden would improve from 88.4 to 101.2. Luke Ryan would improve from 89.5 to 109.5. I know who I would be picking based on that...

That AFL article is very handy Huggie but do we really think that the kick from inside the square that scores 0 still is going to totally disappear surely there are still going to be a lot of times when the advantage for the team is to do this ? gotta remember players and coaches don't care about SC  ;D

Definitely something to monitor in the pre season but I'd have thought the advantage of playing on with the defender moved back so far will far outweigh a quick or short kick, meaning the majority of players will play on the majority of the time. Only time will tell though.

[shaker]

I  Wouldn't be worrying about play on %. The man on the mark is going to be an extra 10 metres back or something so 9/10 kick ins the player is going to move past the square no matter who it is. The guys that take the most kick ins reguardless of weather they usually play on or not will all benefit from it. The backline could become as good as the midfield in terms of scoring if it goes how I think it will

Take two players and assume everyone will play on 90% of the time next season.

Player A takes 6.6 kick ins a game and plays on 2.7 times. If he increases that to 5.9 times and all kicks are effective, that's (5.9 - 2.7) * 4 = 12.8 points increase.

Player B takes 5.6 kick ins a game but never plays on. If he increases that to 5.0 times and all kicks are effective, that's (5.0 - 0) * 4 = 20 points increase.

The players above are Witherden and Ryan based on this article and assuming 19 games played to this point (cbf confirming all the numbers). http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-08-22/kings-of-the-kickin

Based on their averages last year, Witherden would improve from 88.4 to 101.2. Luke Ryan would improve from 89.5 to 109.5. I know who I would be picking based on that...

That AFL article is very handy Huggie but do we really think that the kick from inside the square that scores 0 still is going to totally disappear surely there are still going to be a lot of times when the advantage for the team is to do this ? gotta remember players and coaches don't care about SC  ;D

Definitely something to monitor in the pre season but I'd have thought the advantage of playing on with the defender moved back so far will far outweigh a quick or short kick, meaning the majority of players will play on the majority of the time. Only time will tell though.

Yeah looking forward to JLT to see the impact of rule changes but Lloyd has definitely come back into the picture along with Ryan

[RaisyDaisy]

@FantasyFreako
Looking at the past 3 H&A seasons, the Swans are the hardest side in the AFL to convert scoring shots agst (53.8% scoring acc. agst). They have also given up 66 fewer goals from the corridor zone than any other side, forcing teams to go wide. This makes Jake Lloyd a mush have.

This little exchange is quite funny too

Rory Laird @rorylaird
Can someone please give totals of our kick ins last year please

Adelaide Crows@Adelaide_FC
Brown 100
Mackay 29
Milera 26
Laird 19
Kelly 18

Brodie smith @Brodiesmith33
2019
Laird 184
Rest combined 2

Brodie smith @Brodiesmith33
@rorylaird just went outside to do extra kick in practise #statman

[jvalles69]

Gold.  ;D

[RaisyDaisy]

Just having a closer look at Whitfield's numbers

No doubt he will be a Top 6 defender or there about's, but I'm not convinced that I need to start him

The big appeal I can see is that he has a high floor - rarely ever goes below 80 which is what you want from a defender, but at the same time he doesn't bang out huge scores either. Most of his tons are generally low, below 110

Like I said, will definitely be in my final side, but I'm just not sure he needs to be started. I'm looking at the idea of spending the extra 60k and grabbing Lloyd because he's ceiling is much higher, and it hurts a lot when you don't have those big scores

[Peter]

Agree RD, just a choice between Lloyd and Sicily. Big decision by Round 1.

[frenzy]

Nah Lloyd has had 1 good year, too much risk of going backwards to his previous ave. Pass, maybe an upgrade target, but noway starter.

[_wato]

Re Whitfield

He also didn’t have a fit Z Williams to play the dashing defender role and they’ve just lost Shiel and Scully so plenty of mid time available. That’s the reason he’s a lock from the start, only 540k.

[RaisyDaisy]

Re Whitfield

He also didn’t have a fit Z Williams to play the dashing defender role and they’ve just lost Shiel and Scully so plenty of mid time available. That’s the reason he’s a lock from the start, only 540k.

Wasn't he a full time mid the year before and only average 97?

I understand players improve, and I expect him to as well but all I'm saying is I just don't think he is an absolute lock must starter

[ubeaut]

Re Whitfield

He also didn’t have a fit Z Williams to play the dashing defender role and they’ve just lost Shiel and Scully so plenty of mid time available. That’s the reason he’s a lock from the start, only 540k.

Wasn't he a full time mid the year before and only average 97?

I understand players improve, and I expect him to as well but all I'm saying is I just don't think he is an absolute lock must starter

"only" 97 plus expected improvement from a defender sounds pretty good to me.
No Scully and Williams back means he's a lock for that wing role.

[ubeaut]

In regards to Lloyd, he's had one premo season. Previous high of 87. In fact I'd say he's had 2/3 of a premo season if u look at his first 7 games. Is it just a coincidence that he started to kill it when Mills went down? He's 600k+.

Starting teams are about value for money, points per dollar (and the right rookies)
For that price you look for a 110 average regardless of position. Fyfe and Neale are similar prices, Laird and Simpson are cheaper and all have solid scoring history.
Williams is 200k cheaper. Whitfield is a lock to play midfield with more points on offer with no Sheil or Scully. Blakely is 460k and should play mid with Neale's points on offer.

Remember when Goddard had an out of the box season and started as the most expensive player in SC and as a defender? He reverted to normal scoring,lost a heap of cash and this is a guy that had solid premo scoring history.

Finally he could get more attention given his prolific accumulation as we saw in the elimination final vs GWS, where he was tagged by DeBoer and got 80.

Upgrade target for me.