Round 22 Trades/Advice

[dmac07]

So its the big prelim final week in my cash league. Have narrowed it down to a few options. Have 4 premiums confirmed out and a question mark over Walters.

Def - Laird, Yeo, Lloyd, Hurley, HOWE, RYAN (Lienert, Redman)
Mid - Mitchell, Cripps, Macrae, Oliver, Merrett, Martin, Crouch, GAFF (KELLY, Giro, Barry)
Ruck - Grundy, Gawn (Olango)
Fwd - Heeney, Franklin, McLean, Westhoff, Boak, Walters* (Ahern, T.Smith)

So I need to make one trade in the backline to avoid a zero, and one in the midfield to avoid playing Giro. If Ahern has to cover forward I figure its not as many lost ppints as playing Giro.

So its Howe to Crisp/Hurn/Witherdan or Ryan to Andrews/Webster
And
Kelly to Danger/Fyfe or Gaff to Beams/Heppell/Ward/Adams/Bont.

Currently leaning to Howe to Crisp and Gaff to Beams. Keeping Kelly to come back next week, but I'd habe to field Lienert again. Thoughts?

[crowls]

So its the big prelim final week in my cash league. Have narrowed it down to a few options. Have 4 premiums confirmed out and a question mark over Walters.

Def - Laird, Yeo, Lloyd, Hurley, HOWE, RYAN (Lienert, Redman)
Mid - Mitchell, Cripps, Macrae, Oliver, Merrett, Martin, Crouch, GAFF (KELLY, Giro, Barry)
Ruck - Grundy, Gawn (Olango)
Fwd - Heeney, Franklin, McLean, Westhoff, Boak, Walters* (Ahern, T.Smith)

So I need to make one trade in the backline to avoid a zero, and one in the midfield to avoid playing Giro. If Ahern has to cover forward I figure its not as many lost ppints as playing Giro.

So its Howe to Crisp/Hurn/Witherdan or Ryan to Andrews/Webster
And
Kelly to Danger/Fyfe or Gaff to Beams/Heppell/Ward/Adams/Bont.

Currently leaning to Howe to Crisp and Gaff to Beams. Keeping Kelly to come back next week, but I'd habe to field Lienert again. Thoughts?

Good that you still have trades.    Gaff to Beams and Ryan to Andrews.     Beams has a good an upside an any of them.   Andrews just because he was my last prem in def I selected.   At this stage of the year it is not about avgs etc it is about winning.  So what is your preference, someone who has a consistent score around average ie StdDev of 1 or someone who has high highs and low lows,  StdDev of 3.    With enough data you could do a monte carlo simulation and go with that.  Doesn't mean you will win this week though.     

[shaker]

Ryan has a hammy Howe a corkie so Howe would have to be a chance for next week , as you said Kelly should be back next week so Dangers out of the picture in my eyes so Beams with GC and a home game against WC seems the one to get