Thinking About 2019

[Torpedo10]

Will Grundy & Gawn keep up their 125+ averages? Probably not.
Will they go 110ish and still be the top scoring rucks in 2019? At this stage, I think it's more likely than not.

It's the Danger question of 2019.

[_wato]

Let's consider Gawn and Grundy though

Gawn is a monster, 208cm and has a great midfield at his feet. When not injured he is the best ruck in the comp, so a drop off shouldn't really occur. He has great scoring history too.

Grundy is a 4th midfielder on top of his rucking, a ruck who not only averages 38 hitouts but also 21 touches, 13 CP's, 5 tackles, 5.5 clearances. He won't lose his ability to hunt the footy and dominate against the less mobile rucks. At 24 he will only get better.

I think both of these guys are a different story to Goldy. Goldy doesn't have the best mids at his feet, isn't the tallest ruck in the comp but when he was scoring well he was fit, had extreme work rate and dominated in the ruck. He's showing that ability again but his drop off can probably be acclaimed to his loss of passion for footy, the outside mental stuff he went through, and North not being as good a team among other reasons.

Anyway

I'll be locking in

Defence - Sam Docherty, Rory Laird, Zac Williams, Jake Lloyd

Mid - Tom Mitchell, Nathan Fyfe, Clayton Oliver (my only definite three mids), Tom Liberatore

Ruck - Gawn / Grundy

Forward - All dependent on who makes it.

[enzedder]

Let's consider Gawn and Grundy though

Gawn is a monster, 208cm and has a great midfield at his feet. When not injured he is the best ruck in the comp, so a drop off shouldn't really occur. He has great scoring history too.

Grundy is a 4th midfielder on top of his rucking, a ruck who not only averages 38 hitouts but also 21 touches, 13 CP's, 5 tackles, 5.5 clearances. He won't lose his ability to hunt the footy and dominate against the less mobile rucks. At 24 he will only get better.

I think both of these guys are a different story to Goldy. Goldy doesn't have the best mids at his feet, isn't the tallest ruck in the comp but when he was scoring well he was fit, had extreme work rate and dominated in the ruck. He's showing that ability again but his drop off can probably be acclaimed to his loss of passion for footy, the outside mental stuff he went through, and North not being as good a team among other reasons.

Anyway

I'll be locking in

Defence - Sam Docherty, Rory Laird, Zac Williams, Jake Lloyd

Mid - Tom Mitchell, Nathan Fyfe, Clayton Oliver (my only definite three mids), Tom Liberatore

Ruck - Gawn / Grundy

Forward - All dependent on who makes it.

And further to that on Gawn and Grundy, here's the yearly Hitouts to Advantage stats after R17...
Gawn 264 @ 35.5%
Grundy 187 @ 31.0%
Goldy 184 @ 31.0%
Bellchambers 178 @ 37.9%
Martin 170 @ 30.4%
Jacobs 161 @ 27.5%
Witts 142 @ 24.0%
Sinclair 123 @ 25.4%
Nankervis 120 @ 30.5%
Ryder 110 @ 32.0%
Simpson 74 @ 41.1% (from 6 games)

Gawn is a lock and Grundy as second best plus his mobile midfield work is too.

Dawson Simpson as #1 starting ruck week in week out is food for thought. he got 36 hotouts at 47% this week and 122pts. His end of season now comes with a big watch on him. He is averaging 90 atm...12th best ruck ave, potentially the best of the cheaper options.

[Gigantor]

Grundy has also been durable over the last three years

Missed rd1 2016 then played 21 straight
Missed 2 rds in 2017 from suspension
Played every game so far this year.

Ruck coverage will probably be slim again next year so durability is worth the extra cash

[enzedder]

Grundy has also been durable over the last three years

Missed rd1 2016 then played 21 straight
Missed 2 rds in 2017 from suspension
Played every game so far this year.

Ruck coverage will probably be slim again next year so durability is worth the extra cash

If Grundy goes down between now and the end of the SC year it will be all your fault.

[Gigantor]

Grundy has also been durable over the last three years

Missed rd1 2016 then played 21 straight
Missed 2 rds in 2017 from suspension
Played every game so far this year.

Ruck coverage will probably be slim again next year so durability is worth the extra cash

If Grundy goes down between now and the end of the SC year it will be all your fault.

;D ;D ;D

This year has been such a disaster I've actually started looking forward to the carnage each week haha

[Holz]

Let's consider Gawn and Grundy though

Gawn is a monster, 208cm and has a great midfield at his feet. When not injured he is the best ruck in the comp, so a drop off shouldn't really occur. He has great scoring history too.

Grundy is a 4th midfielder on top of his rucking, a ruck who not only averages 38 hitouts but also 21 touches, 13 CP's, 5 tackles, 5.5 clearances. He won't lose his ability to hunt the footy and dominate against the less mobile rucks. At 24 he will only get better.

I think both of these guys are a different story to Goldy. Goldy doesn't have the best mids at his feet, isn't the tallest ruck in the comp but when he was scoring well he was fit, had extreme work rate and dominated in the ruck. He's showing that ability again but his drop off can probably be acclaimed to his loss of passion for footy, the outside mental stuff he went through, and North not being as good a team among other reasons.

Im very likely starting Gawn Grundy but just a opinion on that comment in bold.

Cunnington is 3rd in the AFL in Clearances and top 10 in center clearances.  Going top 5 in contested possessions. IN terms of best mids for rucks he is one of the elite.

Far better then anyone the pies have in this role. Higgins isnt too shabby either, probably better then everyone at the pies bar Adams.

Gawn is locked as Viney leads the comp in center clearances and Oliver is very good too.

Grundy value is in his possessions, as a actual ruck i think Goldy has a slight edge. Grundy smashes him as a mid though at this point in Goldy's career.

[RaisyDaisy]

I reckon the mids have flower all impact on their scores

Gun rucks have HOTA rates and get around the ground well

I don't buy into the better mids at their feet argument

Obviously it doesn't hurt having them, but I don't honestly think it has a big influence on the rucks SC scoring

[Peter]

Agree entirely with RD and Wato, take the top two are save the trades and points. Clearances for Cunnington and Higgins don’t equate to points because they don’t carry the ball or hit targets often enough, compared to Fyfe, Mitchell, Beams etc. same starting philosophy for 2019 - four gun mids, though not sure on Fyfe yet, Gaff may take his spot.

[Spite]

If Preuss leaves for a starting gig at another club, then he will be too much value to ignore at R2.

[Ricochet]

If Preuss leaves for a starting gig at another club, then he will be too much value to ignore at R2.

Agreed

[shaker]

If Preuss leaves for a starting gig at another club, then he will be too much value to ignore at R2.

Agreed

Yep Norf have a tough decision to make Preuss ain't going to keep playing VFL and be happy and Goldy is playing very well but getting nearer to the end 31 next year ......  watch this space.

[RaisyDaisy]

If Preuss leaves for a starting gig at another club, then he will be too much value to ignore at R2.

Agreed

Yep Norf have a tough decision to make Preuss ain't going to keep playing VFL and be happy and Goldy is playing very well but getting nearer to the end 31 next year ......  watch this space.

Weren't we saying the same thing about Currie? Look how that turned out...

[shaker]

If Preuss leaves for a starting gig at another club, then he will be too much value to ignore at R2.

Agreed

Yep Norf have a tough decision to make Preuss ain't going to keep playing VFL and be happy and Goldy is playing very well but getting nearer to the end 31 next year ......  watch this space.

Weren't we saying the same thing about Currie? Look how that turned out...

True but if Preuss did move on I wouldn't be using him as R2 but he would be very handy on the bench  ;)

[crowls]

Grundy has also been durable over the last three years

Missed rd1 2016 then played 21 straight
Missed 2 rds in 2017 from suspension
Played every game so far this year.

Ruck coverage will probably be slim again next year so durability is worth the extra cash

If Grundy goes down between now and the end of the SC year it will be all your fault.

Not that I want it to happen but gee that would make the finals better for me.    I only play one cash league and currently about I am undefeated and 1000 points clear.  Come finals time none of it matters.   


As an aside my research indicated that over the past 3/4 years there is 500-600 point difference between top 2/3 rucks and the rest.     Getting your rucks right has a huge impact on your overall due to the point difference and the additional captain and VC options you have.    This year not having Grundy hurt big time.