Thinking About 2019

[frenzy]

If Preuss leaves for a starting gig at another club, then he will be too much value to ignore at R2.

Agreed

Yep Norf have a tough decision to make Preuss ain't going to keep playing VFL and be happy and Goldy is playing very well but getting nearer to the end 31 next year ......  watch this space.

Preuss is contracted til 2020, so Norf is in the box seat.

[_wato]

I know it’s super early but I have a donut in defence because of Savage so my rank will plummet and no chance in any leagues.

Next year I am going super safe, don’t give a shower if there’s a midpiced guy who’s tempting just look at Armo Cyril Bonner etc none worked out.
Will look at byes before starting my team too, got crunched this year not taking them into account.

DEF - Docherty, Laird, Lloyd
MID - Danger, Titch, Crouch, Oliver, Kelly/Zerrett/Zorko
RUC - Gawn, Grundy
FWD: No idea

[quinny88]

I know it’s super early but I have a donut in defence because of Savage so my rank will plummet and no chance in any leagues.

Next year I am going super safe, don’t give a shower if there’s a midpiced guy who’s tempting just look at Armo Cyril Bonner etc none worked out.
Will look at byes before starting my team too, got crunched this year not taking them into account.

DEF - Docherty, Laird, Lloyd
MID - Danger, Titch, Crouch, Oliver, Kelly/Zerrett/Zorko
RUC - Gawn, Grundy
FWD: No idea

Can't argue with much there. I'll still look at guys returning from injury like Libba, Brad Crouch and Zac Williams but definitely no "potential breakouts" I already think Short and Gresham could be great pickups back and forward but it's not worth the risk.
No injury prone premos either. As much as I love guys like Fyfe it's just not worth it for the money when he never plays a full season.

So far my team will look something like

D: Docherty, Laird, Lloyd, Z.Williams
M: Danger, Mitchell, Oliver, Cripps, B.Crouch/Libba
R: Gawn, Grundy
F: Dusty, Bont (probably dreaming here)

[_wato]

I know it’s super early but I have a donut in defence because of Savage so my rank will plummet and no chance in any leagues.

Next year I am going super safe, don’t give a shower if there’s a midpiced guy who’s tempting just look at Armo Cyril Bonner etc none worked out.
Will look at byes before starting my team too, got crunched this year not taking them into account.

DEF - Docherty, Laird, Lloyd
MID - Danger, Titch, Crouch, Oliver, Kelly/Zerrett/Zorko
RUC - Gawn, Grundy
FWD: No idea

Can't argue with much there. I'll still look at guys returning from injury like Libba, Brad Crouch and Zac Williams but definitely no "potential breakouts" I already think Short and Gresham could be great pickups back and forward but it's not worth the risk.
No injury prone premos either. As much as I love guys like Fyfe it's just not worth it for the money when he never plays a full season.

So far my team will look something like

D: Docherty, Laird, Lloyd, Z.Williams
M: Danger, Mitchell, Oliver, Cripps, B.Crouch/Libba
R: Gawn, Grundy
F: Dusty, Bont (probably dreaming here)

ZWilliams is a lock actually, simply because he is young and has had premium years in the past, one shock injury shouldn't change much. BCrouch I won't touch, 56 games since 2013 means he's missed 76 games in that period and what's his role? A lot of Adelaide mids. Libba is probably the only other guy I'd touch but depends on his price.. Could be a handy stepping stone.

[Gigantor]

Toby Greene anyone?

If he doesn't play again will be priced 360k if they give him a discount. Only 400k without a discount which is still good

[Bully]

Toby Greene anyone?

If he doesn't play again will be priced 360k if they give him a discount. Only 400k without a discount which is still good

At that price definitely.

For defence I'd be giving Whitfield serious consideration.

[_wato]

Actually Whitfield at around 550k makes much more sense than Lloyd at 600k.

Greene would be a great pickup, but he won't play 22.

[SilverLion]

Def: Docherty, Z. Williams, Whitfield, Laird?
Mid: Titch, Oliver, Cripps, Liberatore, Zerrett?
Ruck: Gawn or Grundy + hopefully a Preuss type.
Fwd: Dangerfield, Martin, Bontempelli, Dunkley?, De Goey?, Daniher?, Greene?

[_wato]

Found this on the Flogfooty forum. Thought I'd use it here.

Pattern:
Every 18 points average difference = ~100k price difference.
Every 5 points = ~28k
Every 2.5 points = ~14k
Every 1 point = ~5k

2017 Ave - 2018 starting price:
136 - 750k
118.4 - 650k
114.7 - 630k
111 - 610k
110 - 605k
109 - 599k
107.5 - 591k
105 - 577k
102.5 - 564k
101.5 - 558k
100 - 550k
97.5 - 535k
95 - 522k
92.5 - 508k
90 - 494k
87.5 - 481k
85 - 467k
82.5 - 454k
80 - 440k

So based on this and current players averages

Titch - 728k
Grundy - 707k
Gawn - 700k
Macrae - 686k
Cripps - 665k
Kelly - 653k
Danger/Fyfe - 645k
Oliver - 632k
Treloar 602k
Lloyd/Yeo - 600k
Gaff/Neale - 595k
Laird/Duncan - 590k
Sicily - 577k
Dusty - 565k
Bont - 555k
Zorko/Zerrett/M Crouch/Goldy/Gray - ~550k
Docherty (with 15%)/TMac/Heeney/Menegola - 535-540k
JPK - 525k
Sloane - 518k
Hurley - 515k
Ryder - 485k
ZWilliams (15%)/Kreuzer - 440k
Billings 430k
T Lynch/Dahlhaus - 425k
JJK - 405k
Greene - 398k 7 games so injury discount? Could be as low as 360k.
Houli - 390k
Tex Walker - 355k
Dan Hannebery - 340k!!!

Anyway thought this was interesting! Opening my eyes to some prospective bargains and guys to steer clear of.
Also I'm sure some of these calculations are out but ball park figure.

[Gigantor]

Found this on the Flogfooty forum. Thought I'd use it here.

Pattern:
Every 18 points average difference = ~100k price difference.
Every 5 points = ~28k
Every 2.5 points = ~14k
Every 1 point = ~5k

The magic number this year was 5497
That means $5497 for every point of average

Danger 5497*136.4 = $749,800

If a player has played 7 or less then discounts get applied

The magic number used to be around the 5400 mark but really jumped this year, will be interesting to see what they set it at for 2019

Interesting note is they use a lower magic number during the year to calculate price changes.
So if Danger had scored 136.6 in every match this year his price still would have slowly gone down

[RaisyDaisy]

D: Docherty, Laird, Lloyd (One of Williams, Simmo and Sicily)
M: Titch, Danger, Oliver, Kelly, Cripps (Crouch if I need a cheaper option)
R: Gawn, Grundy (Doesn't matter what they cost - set and forget)
F: No idea yet, Gray and Hoff solid but probably have the crap bye again

[Spite]

Found this on the Flogfooty forum. Thought I'd use it here.

Pattern:
Every 18 points average difference = ~100k price difference.
Every 5 points = ~28k
Every 2.5 points = ~14k
Every 1 point = ~5k

The magic number this year was 5497
That means $5497 for every point of average

Danger 5497*136.4 = $749,800

If a player has played 7 or less then discounts get applied

The magic number used to be around the 5400 mark but really jumped this year, will be interesting to see what they set it at for 2019

Interesting note is they use a lower magic number during the year to calculate price changes.
So if Danger had scored 136.6 in every match this year his price still would have slowly gone down

It’s a rolling magic number, it’s not set. It drops because the 123k rookies rocket in price and there is a finite amount of money in the game. The magic number keeps the numbers balanced, as all risers each week will equal the fallers.

There’s a few extra things too, but ill let them go for now. :)

[Gigantor]

Found this on the Flogfooty forum. Thought I'd use it here.

Pattern:
Every 18 points average difference = ~100k price difference.
Every 5 points = ~28k
Every 2.5 points = ~14k
Every 1 point = ~5k

The magic number this year was 5497
That means $5497 for every point of average

Danger 5497*136.4 = $749,800

If a player has played 7 or less then discounts get applied

The magic number used to be around the 5400 mark but really jumped this year, will be interesting to see what they set it at for 2019

Interesting note is they use a lower magic number during the year to calculate price changes.
So if Danger had scored 136.6 in every match this year his price still would have slowly gone down

It’s a rolling magic number, it’s not set. It drops because the 123k rookies rocket in price and there is a finite amount of money in the game. The magic number keeps the numbers balanced, as all risers each week will equal the fallers.

There’s a few extra things too, but ill let them go for now. :)

Haha I thought that finite money thing was a myth  :P

But yeah I've noticed the magic number varies a fair bit, 4800-5200 range
What I was trying to explain was it's tough for a premo to maintain their starting price

[crowls]

Going to be hard to find def keepers under 500.
Grundy and Gawn really is set and forget.  Just too much difference to the next ruck down.  Only possibility is a youngun getting a crack or someone who has been backup for years getting first ruck (eg Witts).     

Still comes down to money.   Balancing the risk v reward.    This year didnt start Dusty,  too high a price and always variable.  Bought him in round 3. (Sucked in again).   Danger has been only reasonable and poor investment if you started him.

2019 Framework

1 of (Laird, Docherty) probably Doc,  ZWilliams,  1 of LLoyd, Simmo, Sicily,   Then depends on funds.
Titch, Danger, Kelly, Oliver, Cripps are the stand outs,  you cannot really start all of them.   

Gawn, Grundy, Goldy as backup

Fwds.
Dusty Heeney Bont, Sicily

[enzedder]

Laird Andrews Docherty ZWilliams....3 pick themselves. Harris wont be discounted but due to a slowish start, injury affected score and a need to hit form again he's going to be the best value at the top end premo level. Witherden is another I like.
Titch Fyfe Cripps JKelly Oliver... The best IMO.
Grundy...or Gawn... but maybe just the one and get a cheapie who will make $ and play at R2. We'll see.
Danger Heeney Greene...will Danger get it? Probably not. Forwards will be interesting again. They killed me this year. Greene has only played 7 to date and averaging 72. No matter what he'll be value. Heeney is locked.