LaHug's Captains 2018 - Round 5

[LaHug]

Captains for Cancer Council.
https://myownway.everydayhero.com/au/will-huggett-s-2018-fundraising

Please pledge funds to help fight cancer! Examples of ways you can help:
1.   Pledge an amount (e.g. $5) for every time LaHug nails the top captain of the round.
2.   Pledge an amount (e.g. $5) for every time LaHug's POD cracks the 120 mark.
3.   Pledge an amount (e.g. $5) for every time LaHug gets egg on his face and his number 1 scores under 100.
4.   Make a once off donation.

Pledges:
LaHug - $10 every time my number 1 doesn't crack the ton.
LaHug - $50 if my POD ever cracks 150.

[LaHug]

Each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week.

THE TAG IS BACK!
Ben Jacobs, Bailey Banfield, Scott Selwood, Harry Cunningham, Brad Ebert, Tom Rockliff, Nathan Jones. 7 different players tagged opponents last weekend. You can kinda count Steele Sidebottom too to make it 8. But, basically, it's not a good time to be a taggable midfielder.

Your biggest threats seem to be the first three guys as they're likely to tag every week. I'd assume at least one tag if you're playing Port too. I'll take this into account in my analysis but, basically, if you're stuck on a 50/50 decision, choose the guy not matched up against a tagger!

The other question to ask yourself is "will my premo get tagged?". I like to look at three points:
1.   Is my premo taggable? Dusty, for example, is too strong and too dominant up forward to be taggable. Whitfield is an outside runner and easily shut down with attention.
2.   Is there someone in my premo's team more likely to be tagged? Jack Macrae didn't get tagged last week because Lachie Hunter is more of an outside player that's easier to tag. Now Hunter is suspended so Macrae is much more likely to get attention.
3.   Did my premo get tagged last time these teams played? Tom Mitchell was shown to be taggable just last week but Collingwood will happily let him rack up 50+ disposals whenever they play each other.

The facts & thoughts:

Laird
Last 3: 115, 120, 141 (125 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 116, 94, 88 (99 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 69 (69 avg)

Speaking of tags, why doesn't Laird ever get one? I'm assuming the Swans will stick with the successful approach of shutting down Sloane this week so Laird can continue dominating. Prediction - 125

Gibbs
Last 3: 113, 129, 113 (118 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 95, 102, 131 (109 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 95, 131, 118 (115 avg)

Gibbs is another Crow that's dominating each week and not getting any attention. I can't see why that won't happen again. Prediction - 120

Coniglio
Last 3: 121, 111, 120 (117 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 115, 123, 132 (123 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 88, 115, 72 (92 avg)

Highly likely to get a 120 each week and could get more against the lowly Saints. Prediction - 125

Dangerfield
Last 3: 97, 102, 118 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 125, 115, 90 (110 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 121, 112, 129 (121 avg)

I'm not sold on Danger this week due to his recent form. I think Selwood gets tagged ahead of him but Port tried the double tag last week so don't count out some attention. Too many risk factors. Prediction - 105

Fyfe
Last 3: 91, 144, 123 (119 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 110, 54, 109 (91 avg)
Last 3 at Perth: 144, 123 (134 avg)

Fyfe was down last week for no obvious reason and I'm starting to think he might be a home-ground-only captain. Fortunately, he's at home this week and has killed it there twice already. Prediction - 130

Macrae
Last 3: 128, 116, 134 (126 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 116, 107, 97 (107 avg)
Last 3 at Perth: N/A

My gut tells me that Bailey Banfield will tag Macrae this week. I don't know how Macrae will handle a tag so that's enough to scare me away this week. Still one to consider though based on form. Prediction - 100

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 83, 148, 137 (123 avg)
Last 3 against North: 118, 97, 163 (126 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 120, 143, 90 (118 avg)

Tom Mitchell vs. Ben Jacobs is a matchup we haven't seen before. Last year, Mitchell beat Dumont's tag for 118, but Jacobs is a stronger tagger. After getting smashed by Jones last week, I'm worried. Prediction - 120

Gawn
Last 3: 127, 114, 78 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 142, 69, 43 (85 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 127, 114, 138 (126 avg)

Big Max loves to play the Tigers and is in good form right now. I'm strongly considering him as a POD. Prediction - 125

D. Martin
Last 3: 111, 67, 127 (102 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 125, 82, 84 (97 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 111, 67, 127 (102 avg)

Dusty was good against the Dees last time they played and I can't see why he won't be again. I doubt they use Jones on him when Cotchin is more taggable. Prediction - 120

Sidebottom
Last 3: 137, 130, 96 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 108, 90, 144 (114 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 130, 96, 108 (111 avg)

That form plus ANZAC Day? Sidebottom is your number one option this week (sorry Titch) and I'm confident he'll top the round. Prediction - 140

Grundy
Last 3: 126, 141, 127 (131 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 72, 86, 92 (83 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 141, 127, 84 (117 avg)

Very very hard to ignore Grundy's form right now but his history against the Bombers sucks. I think form wins out but I'm not overly confident. Prediction - 120

LAHUG'S POD!

Steven
Last 3: 65, 99, 112 (92 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 113, 100, 136 (116 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 99, 112, 133 (115 avg)

GWS are not tagging people this year so Jack Steven will go big! Well... biggish. Saints will get smashed so that caps his ceiling somewhat. Prediction - 130

The verdict:
1.   Steele Sidebottom (140)
2.   Nat Fyfe (130)
3.   Tom Mitchell (120)
4.   Stephen Coniglio (125)
5.   Rory Laird (125)

[kilbluff1985]

Lahug could i request Duncan please

[LaHug]

Duncan
Last 3: 93, 110 (102 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 109, 110, 101 (107 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 110, 104, 66 (93 avg)

Not overly confident with his start to the year and thought he'd be higher last week with Ablett out of the team. There's so many options scoring for Geelong this season with Danger, Selwood, and either Ablett or Menegola in the mids. Kelly and now Parfitt taking the scores too just makes it really tough so be confident in any individual. The stats say he'll be good but there's both a high ceiling and a huge risk not shown in the numbers. Prediction - 110

[kilbluff1985]

ty got him vs Titch in ADT and bxv is all

[Ricochet]

Tossing up between TMitch and Gibbs atm

[Toga]

Tossing up between Big Max and Macrae at the moment. Possibility of a tag turning me off Macrae.

[jvalles69]

Treloar and Zerrett are both tempting me!  :o

[fanTCfool]

Hello Huggy, I'd like to request Jarryd Lyons should time permit.

[Ricochet]

Gibbs VC was a flop in RDT.

Have Titch, Zerrett, Beams :-X, Gawn, Treloar.

All have risk/uncertainty apart from probably Gawn so think i'll run with him.

Now watch him spud :-\

[iZander]

my AF is so shower this year i went with Stefan captain as a POD, lets wait and see how that turns out :/

[fanTCfool]

Decided to captain Coniglio to uphold the rule that you can't captain someone (Sidebum) the week you bring them in, not displeased.

[Ricochet]

Gibbs VC was a flop in RDT.

Have Titch, Zerrett, Beams :-X, Gawn, Treloar.

All have risk/uncertainty apart from probably Gawn so think i'll run with him.

Now watch him spud :-\

Did not spud