Round 5 Trades

[ubeaut]

Pick 2 of:
Option A) Billings -> Gray
Option B) Brayshaw -> Guelfi (via Garlett)
Option C) J Kelly -> Zerrett
Option D) J Kelly -> Fyfe/Macrae
Option E) Goldstein -> Grundy

I can afford any of these options individually as I have $150k in the bank. However I'd prefer to use 2 trades this week, as I need to get the issue sorted. (Kind of forced to keep Hibberd at this stage)

Leaning towards C/D as Kelly has a BE of 160 and coming off an injury I think he could drop quite dramatically. He's unlikely to play this week and I cannot afford another tight loss in my cash league to due having one less premo than my opponent (lost by 20 points last week). He just didn't look the same in his first 3 games compared to last year, his ball use is of much lower quality.

Billings has been ruining me, and with Gray tearing it up in the midfield and looking likely to reach 600k very soon, I feel like now is the time to cut my losses and make the upgrade. Goldy to Grundy is a similar situation tho, however I feel like this is less necessary as Goldy looks more likely to score than Billings, and Grundy won't keep pulling out 140s.

Option B could wait one more week as Guelfi's price doesn't increase until Round 6, and Brayshaw should hopefully make his BE of 56 and retain his current price.

I feel like Merrett could be back to his norm next week as he gets a 10 day break due to Anzac Day, which should see his TOG increase. However there is the worry that Sidebottom goes to him.

Overall, A and C are looking the most appealing at the moment, as going early on Merrett could pay off big time and save me 100k.

Forget B. A great trade but do it next week.
I'd love to have the luxury of Billings > Gray, too many other issues. Do it.
That leaves how much u want Grundy vs trading Kelly.
If he misses, trade. If not, see how he and Merrett go and get Grundy.
Merrett will still be cheap next week.
So A+C or A + E depending on Kelly playing.

[crowls]

Hey crew.

Made 75k on Fisher and now he has a BE of 75.
Do we think it is a definite trade?

Was thinking trading out Fisher to Guilfi (week early) and Brayshaw (BE 55) to Menegola. Leaving me with 33k

Would like to know your thoughts here. Variations are welcome

Menegola is a good option,  with Gaz and Scotty out he should continue to get good mid time.  Great POD option who can pump out consistent 100's.

[Ringo]

Just keep an eye on ZGL who is listed as test and may play this week.  So you can trade in a player on the bubble if you do not have him.

[enzedder]

Just keep an eye on ZGL who is listed as test and may play this week.  So you can trade in a player on the bubble if you do not have him.

"Langdon is ahead of schedule and could be a surprise inclusion against St Kilda."

Great. I need him. When I checked yesterday, it still said 2 weeks.

[no eye deer]

Contemplating a straight swap of Billings to Heeney/Gray. Down to 26 trades already, but I can’t put up with Billings any longer and need one of these two ASAP I reckon. Too sideways?

[ubeaut]

Contemplating a straight swap of Billings to Heeney/Gray. Down to 26 trades already, but I can’t put up with Billings any longer and need one of these two ASAP I reckon. Too sideways?

It's only sideways if Billings starts pumping out regular 95-100s.
Can't see it happening anytime soon.

[jvalles69]

Contemplating a straight swap of Billings to Heeney/Gray. Down to 26 trades already, but I can’t put up with Billings any longer and need one of these two ASAP I reckon. Too sideways?

It's only sideways if Billings starts pumping out regular 95-100s.
Can't see it happening anytime soon.

I watched some of the Saints game and it wasn't for lack of trying, it seemed every time Billings got the ball, his teammates weren't moving or spreading so he just had to throw it on the boot before he got tackled.  I'm persisting with him, but Saints are going to have to make some big improvements asap.

[RaisyDaisy]

Have a look at Billings score last year

Same thing, first 4-5 weeks were poor then he hit his straps

[jvalles69]

Have a look at Billings score last year

Same thing, first 4-5 weeks were poor then he hit his straps

Did this coincide with Saints being crap too?

[Gigantor]

Have a look at Billings score last year

Same thing, first 4-5 weeks were poor then he hit his straps

Did this coincide with Saints being crap too?

11 Loses @ 85
11 Wins  @ 100.3

Pre bye  10 @ 86.2 (5W 5L)
Post bye 12 @ 98.1 (6W, 6L)

5 of his 6 highest scores were in wins but 2 of his lowest 3 scores where also in Wins, including a 57 when they pumped the Tiges in rd 16

So he scored better in wins and the second half of the year.

My Team is shower so I think I'll still take the punt and trade in Gray  ;)

Billings 2017

Rnd	Opponent		DT		SC		W/L
1	Melbourne		75		75		L
2	West Coast		61		67		L
3	Brisbane		47		53		W
4	Collingwood		119		97		W
5	Geelong		72		55		L
6	Hawthorn		86		93		W
7	GWS		116		114		W
8	Carlton		151		136		W
9	Sydney		113		104		L
10	W. Bulldogs		67		68		L
12	Adelaide		86		106		L
13	North Melb.		105		110		W
14	Gold Coast		111		130		W
15	Fremantle		102		88		W
16	Richmond		55		57		W
17	Essendon		76		66		L
18	Sydney		91		75		L
19	Pt Adelaide		82		103		L
20	West Coast		119		130		W
21	Melbourne		135		112		L
22	North Melb.		102		96		W
23	Richmond		110		104		L

[Bully]

At worst Billings can hold down F7, think this is the week to dump him if no other problems present. Switching to Gray is a decent option but upgrading next week much more of a concern for me.

[jvalles69]

So what you're saying is, none of us should've started with him based on those stats.  :'(

[Gigantor]

So what you're saying is, none of us should've started with him based on those stats.  :'(

Yeah I wish I did this research earlier  :-[

[Bully]

So what you're saying is, none of us should've started with him based on those stats.  :'(

I'm actually taking solace in those stats, heard quite a bit that Billings is a flat track bully but his record against the 2017 finalists is pretty good.

[Ricochet]

Just keep an eye on ZGL who is listed as test and may play this week.  So you can trade in a player on the bubble if you do not have him.

"Langdon is ahead of schedule and could be a surprise inclusion against St Kilda."

Great. I need him. When I checked yesterday, it still said 2 weeks.

Might need to look at bringing him back in with Venables being long term :-X