Brownlow 2018

[R.Griffen]

Just out of curiosity does everyone else have Mitchell winning comfortably!?

have seen some where its very close

I have Titch winning by like 6 I think but have severely underrated Cripps got him on less then 20 votes

Ive got Mitchell winning by one on 28, from Grundy 27, and Yeo/Gaff/Gawn all 23. Grundy and Gawn are hard ones to quantify, but historically umpires dont notice hit outs as much as they do around the ground work. Thats wjy I think Grundy is ahead of Hawn and can win it, as he gets his 20 touches and is top 10-15 in the comp for contested balls and clearances. Whereas Gawns greatest influence is in dominating hit outs which I dont think catches the eye of umpires as much. I habe Cripps back on 18 but I also find him hard to place, could be anywhere from 14 to 28 i think.

Because I generally follow history and predict what umps think. Then added media hype. I have the ruckman flying home but both missing top 10.

Found myself surprised when Oliver come third in my count

[dmac07]

ADELAIDE

12
M.Crouch
11
R.Laird
6
R.Sloane
5
B.Gibbs
P.Seedsman
R.Douglas
4
T.Walker
H.Greenwood
3
R.Atkins
T.Lynch
C.Ellis-Yolam
E.Betts
J.Jenkins
2
B.Smith
M.McGovern

I really like Crouch in the outright market at $5.50. The half backs that accumulate just dont attract votes. Will be in a lot of my multis. Can back Crouch in the without Laird market as a fairly sure thing. Whatever you do just dont back Laird at <1.20

[dmac07]

BRISBANE

20
D.Beams

9
D.Zorko

4
S.Martin

3
J.Berry

2
T.Cutler
L.Hodge
H.Andrews
E.Hipwood
H.McLuggage

1
C.Rayner
A.Witherdan

Zorko at 1.14 in the withiut Beams market should easily get it. Worth adding into the short multis.

[dmac07]

CARLTON

18
P.Cripps

4
K.Simpson

3
E.Curnow

2
C.CurnoW
D.Thomas
M.Murphy

Not much value here, maybe E.Curnow at $10 in without Cripps market but probably will avoid.

[dmac07]

COLLINGWOOD

27
B.Grundy

14
S.Pendlebury

12
S.Sidebottom

10
J.DeGoey

7
A.Treloar
T.Adams

6
T.Phillips

2
M.Scharenberg
J.Howe
J.Thomas
J.Stephenson

1
M.Cox
J.Crisp

I may habe Grundy slightly high and Sidebottom slightly low but should still be an easy Grundy win. Good for the shorter multis at 1.25.

[jvalles69]

Good stuff dmac, making me more confident in my own count.  Grundy already into $1.25?? I got on the day multi's were released and had him at $2.50!

[dmac07]

Good stuff dmac, making me more confident in my own count.  Grundy already into $1.25?? I got on the day multi's were released and had him at $2.50!

Pretty upset I didnt jump on sooner, was just busy and put it off. I got him at 1.40.

[dmac07]

16
D.Heppell

14
Z.Merrett

11
D.Smith

4
D.Zaharakis
O.Fantasia

3
D.Myers
S.McKerna
J.Stringer
A.Mcdonald-Tiungwuti

2
A.Saad

1
A.Francis
M.Hurley

Probably a two horse race between Heppell and Merrett who will poll well late. Heppell 1.33, Merrett 3.25, probably about right, not a heap of value. Saw a predictor count with Heppell on 23 votes, Merrett 20  :o Seems way overs.

[dmac07]

FREMANTLE

19
N.Fyfe

12
L.Neale

5
D.Mundy

4
M.Walters

3
E.Langdon
A.Cerra

2
B.Cox
B.Hill

1
L.Ryan
C.Blakely
N.Wilson

Fyfe takes it easily, even at $1.10 can add to multis for a little extra value. Seen one count with Neale only one votes behind bit think thats way off. Mpst of Neales good games were when Freo was getting hammered.

[dmac07]

GEELONG

18
P.Dangerfield

13
G.Ablett

12
J.Selwood

10
T.Kelly

9
T.Hawkins

6
S.Menegola
M.Duncan

3
B.Parfitt
T.Stewert

2
D.Menzel

1
J.Henry
G.Horlin-Smith

Dangerfield at $1.14 for the shorter multis. Saw one predictor with Danger/Selwood both hitting 20+, can see Selwood getting close to that.

[dmac07]

GOLD COAST

5
J.Lyons
A.Young
B.Fiorini

4
D.Swallow

3
T.Lynch

2
S.May
T.Miller

1
J.Witts

Who the hell knows on Gold Coast, could be anyone and could be won with as little as 4 votes. Fiorini only potential value at $12 maybe worth a small bet.

[jvalles69]

Fiorini super value, him and Ben Brown are 2 sneaky single bets I have placed.

[dmac07]

Fiorini super value, him and Ben Brown are 2 sneaky single bets I have placed.

Ill get to the rest of the temas later but Westhoff is my sneaky value!

[RaisyDaisy]

Struggling to find a lot of value

Beams Top 5 and Yeo Top 5 I might have a dabble on

Crouch most Ade votes $4.50 a sneaky chance

Hoff at $15 for the lulz why not

Other than that, can't see too much I like  :-\

Titch/Dusty Quinella $3.50 and Titch/Gawn Quinella $5 maybe worth a bet too

[dmac07]

GWS

17
S.Coniglio

15
J.Kelly

13
C.Ward

12
L.Whitfield

3
T.Greene
M.Deboer
D.Shiel
T.Taranto

2
J.Cameron

1
H.Shaw

Probably Coniglio, maybe Ward. Kelly is easy to pick as his votes are pretty clear, will get within one or two of that prediction. Coniglio should get it but Ward a better poller. Still stick with Coniglio at $1.70, good multi value. Wouldnt surprise if he goes 20-22 votes.