Year of the expensive rookies??

[DCAK]

This is the important question this season.

Every year I fight like heck to run with a Guns-'n-Rookies set-up:

12-13 premiums
1-2 mid-pricers
8 Rookies (with a maximum of 3 160k+ Rookies)

This season my lack of faith in the 102K â€" 149K Rookies is forcing me to consider a mid-pricer approach (with more cash invested in top-tier Rookies). I feel very uncomfortable with the side I'm currently sitting on; but I think I have to trust my read.

11 Premiums
3 Mid-Pricers
8 Rookies (with 5 160K+ Rookies)

i.e. -1 prem/+1 mid-pricer to allow for two additional 160K+ Rookies.

I can't tell you how much I want to reverse this. But my gut-feel is to take the short-term pain for a guaranteed cash cow return. I'd rather over-invest and correct down, than end up with three Rookies who're struggling to put together five games.

+1 This is exactly how I view selection each year.

[DCAK]

Those who try to skim this year on rookies are going to get destroyed.
Money making is the number one priority.

Rather go more mid pricers to be honest.

Cos that always works out well  ???

[Bully]

Those who try to skim this year on rookies are going to get destroyed.
Money making is the number one priority.

Rather go more mid pricers to be honest.

Cos that always works out well  ???

Sometimes is does mate, Oliver, Murphy & Kelly for example. Or in the forwards, Ryder, Nankervis & Higgins. Or Witts in the ruck.

Need to look beyond starting prices & attempt to estimate scoring potential & $$ generation. Reckon you should post a more current team and explain your selections.

[Keeper27]

Cos that always works out well  ???

Sometimes is does mate, Oliver, Murphy & Kelly for example. Or in the forwards, Ryder, Nankervis & Higgins. Or Witts in the ruck.

Need to look beyond starting prices & attempt to estimate scoring potential & $$ generation. Reckon you should post a more current team and explain your selections.

[Colley Dogs]

Those who try to skim this year on rookies are going to get destroyed.
Money making is the number one priority.

Rather go more mid pricers to be honest.

Cos that always works out well  ???

Sometimes is does mate, Oliver, Murphy & Kelly for example. Or in the forwards, Ryder, Nankervis & Higgins. Or Witts in the ruck.

Need to look beyond starting prices & attempt to estimate scoring potential & $$ generation. Reckon you should post a more current team and explain your selections.

I believe the answer lies somewhere between these two arguments.

I agree there aren't enough Rookies in the 102K - 149K range this season. Normally I take around two (no more than three!) 150K - 249K Rookies; but this year I'm sitting on six!

(By my definition a mid-pricer is 250K - 450K)

As much as I'd prefer to weight my team with mid-pricers, there isn't the same depth of quality as there was last year.

Witts was manner-from-heaven; but I think it's generally accepted this is a set-'n-forget Ruck season.

Ryder offered extreme value (low 400s I think) as an F3/R option; you could compare him to Sicily this season.

Oliver (380K I think) & Kelly (I forget) were freakish options (I didn't have the courage to start with either, even though both were brightly lit on my radar); and M. Murphy (NOT MID-PRICER!). Coniglio is the only low 400K option that comes close in potential, but I don't believe he'll finish anywhere near the top 8 mids come season's end.

O'Meara, Watson, and Beams, were the low 300K options last season. I started with Beams & Swallow (280K I think). This season we have O'Meara again, and Armitage. I'm not tempted by either. Neither of these will do what Beams did last season.

Only Sicily entices me as someone who can become a keeper.

(Although Coniglio could be suitable for M8, I already have Cripps; and I don't want Cripps & Coniglio occupying M7 & M8 in my completed team: it's strong now, but will be weak in the end).

For me, if I'm reading it correctly, this season's value lies with the low-end mid-pricers & high-end Rookies:

Sicily + Dunkley & Christensen + SIX $150K - 250K Rookies (including C. Ellis & A. Brayshaw @ Freo).

This allows me to run with my preferred Guns-'n-Rookies set-up:

12 Premiums (8 ultra-prems + Simpson; Cripps; Goldstein; Walters/McLean)
3 Mid-Prices (one top-end / two low-end)
7 Rookies (4 top-end starting Rookies / 2 top-end bench Rookies)

(I'm happy to post my current team, but don't feel like this is the space to do so)

In thirteen years of Supercoach I've only run with a Mid-Pricer strategyy twice (i.e. 4 plus players in the 250K - 450K band): 2009, when I finished 53rd overall; and 2010, when I finished 30,000+ overall. Conclusion: mid-pricers will deliver you to heaven very, very rarely; and to hell very, very, regularly.

[SilverLion]

Those who try to skim this year on rookies are going to get destroyed.
Money making is the number one priority.

Rather go more mid pricers to be honest.

Cos that always works out well  ???

Sometimes is does mate, Oliver, Murphy & Kelly for example. Or in the forwards, Ryder, Nankervis & Higgins. Or Witts in the ruck.

Need to look beyond starting prices & attempt to estimate scoring potential & $$ generation. Reckon you should post a more current team and explain your selections.

I believe the answer lies somewhere between these two arguments.

I agree that there aren't enough Rookies in the 102K - 149K range this season. Normally I take around two (no more than three!) 150K - 249K Rookies; but this year I'm sitting on six!

As much as I'd prefer to weight my team with mid-pricers, there isn't the same depth of quality as there was last year.

Witts was manner from heaven; but I think it's generally accepted that this is a set-'n-forget Ruck season.

Ryder offered extreme value (low 400s I think) as an F3/R option; you could compare him to Sicily this season.

Oliver (380K I think) and Kelly (I forget) were freakish options (I didn't have the courage to start with either, even though they were both brightly lit on my radar). Coniglio is the only low 400K option that comes close in potential, but I don't believe he'll finish anywhere near the top 8 mids come season's end.

O'Meara; Watson; Beams were the low 300K options last season. I started with Beams & Swallow (280K I think). This season we have O'Meara again, and Armitage. I'm not tempted by either. Neither of these will do what Beams did last season.

Only Sicily entices me as someone who can become a keeper.

(Although Coniglio could be a suitable candidate for M8, I already have Cripps; and I don't want Cripps and Coniglio occupying M7 & M8: it's strong now, but will be weak at the end).

For me, if I'm reading it correctly, this season's value lies with the low-end mid-pricers and the high-end Rookies:

Sicily + Dunkley & Christensen + six $150K - 250K Rookies (including C. Ellis & A. Brayshaw @ Freo).

This allows me to run with my preferred Guns-'n-Rookies set-up:

12 Premiums (8 ultra-premiums)
3 Mid-Prices (one top-end / two low-end)
7 Rookies (4 top-end starting Rookies / 2 top-end Rookies on the bench)

(I'm happy to post my current team, but don't feel like this is the space to do so)

Like this kid, just thought I'd bring him to a few more people's attention as he is a FWD

[eaglesman]

I look at my team and I realised I now have all of
Coffield
Naughton
Dow
Uniacke
Brodie
Stephenson

In my side.
Feel happy with the structure.

*just realised I forgot to put in
Barry And fritsch into my lineup so will have to make room.

[tommy10]

Will wait till JLT 2 but atm it’s a toss up between Brodie/Dow/Brayshaw for M7. Am leaving 1 spot for either Kelly/Barry/Banfield/Holman. Have Arma at M6 as my mid pricer as I think there’s value there. Although I like Conigs, I can’t fit him at M6, and picking him at M5 will be too light. Let’s see, might find a way to still fit Conigs at M6  ;)

[Toga]

Will wait till JLT 2 but atm it’s a toss up between Brodie/Dow/Brayshaw for M7. Am leaving 1 spot for either Kelly/Barry/Banfield/Holman. Have Arma at M6 as my mid pricer as I think there’s value there. Although I like Conigs, I can’t fit him at M6, and picking him at M5 will be too light. Let’s see, might find a way to still fit Conigs at M6  ;)

If there's a heap of rookies (e.g. Kelly, Barry, Banfield etc) pushing for one spot is it worth forgetting Armitage?

Armitage probably likely to score a few more ppg early than those blokes but the coin you save could potentially be the difference between an upgrade elsewhere on the field

[Dudge]

Will wait till JLT 2 but atm it’s a toss up between Brodie/Dow/Brayshaw for M7. Am leaving 1 spot for either Kelly/Barry/Banfield/Holman. Have Arma at M6 as my mid pricer as I think there’s value there. Although I like Conigs, I can’t fit him at M6, and picking him at M5 will be too light. Let’s see, might find a way to still fit Conigs at M6  ;)

If there's a heap of rookies (e.g. Kelly, Barry, Banfield etc) pushing for one spot is it worth forgetting Armitage?

Armitage probably likely to score a few more ppg early than those blokes but the coin you save could potentially be the difference between an upgrade elsewhere on the field

Also consider the cash generation from a rookie

[Toga]

Will wait till JLT 2 but atm it’s a toss up between Brodie/Dow/Brayshaw for M7. Am leaving 1 spot for either Kelly/Barry/Banfield/Holman. Have Arma at M6 as my mid pricer as I think there’s value there. Although I like Conigs, I can’t fit him at M6, and picking him at M5 will be too light. Let’s see, might find a way to still fit Conigs at M6  ;)

If there's a heap of rookies (e.g. Kelly, Barry, Banfield etc) pushing for one spot is it worth forgetting Armitage?

Armitage probably likely to score a few more ppg early than those blokes but the coin you save could potentially be the difference between an upgrade elsewhere on the field

Also consider the cash generation from a rookie

Exactly, the cash benefits could be twofold: savings and cash generation. Just something worth thinking about!

[RaisyDaisy]

Will wait till JLT 2 but atm it’s a toss up between Brodie/Dow/Brayshaw for M7. Am leaving 1 spot for either Kelly/Barry/Banfield/Holman. Have Arma at M6 as my mid pricer as I think there’s value there. Although I like Conigs, I can’t fit him at M6, and picking him at M5 will be too light. Let’s see, might find a way to still fit Conigs at M6  ;)

If there's a heap of rookies (e.g. Kelly, Barry, Banfield etc) pushing for one spot is it worth forgetting Armitage?

Armitage probably likely to score a few more ppg early than those blokes but the coin you save could potentially be the difference between an upgrade elsewhere on the field

The other factor is that you don't want mid rookies going 70+ on your bench, while fwd and def rookies are on field scoring lower

[frenzy]

Will wait till JLT 2 but atm it’s a toss up between Brodie/Dow/Brayshaw for M7. Am leaving 1 spot for either Kelly/Barry/Banfield/Holman. Have Arma at M6 as my mid pricer as I think there’s value there. Although I like Conigs, I can’t fit him at M6, and picking him at M5 will be too light. Let’s see, might find a way to still fit Conigs at M6  ;)

Why not two mid pricers or more?
Conigs is currently M5 for me, but I don't see the difference myself. I must be the minority, because I don't pick mid pricers with the intentions of them having to be a keeper. If they turn out keepers, bonus. Mid pricers are so much easier to turn into ultra premo, go sideways and or even chip down to a rookie that you may of missed. If Conigs can get a modest gain $, I'll probably turn him into Dusty/Jelwood. That's if he's not killen it, then I'll keep him.

[tommy10]

Will wait till JLT 2 but atm it’s a toss up between Brodie/Dow/Brayshaw for M7. Am leaving 1 spot for either Kelly/Barry/Banfield/Holman. Have Arma at M6 as my mid pricer as I think there’s value there. Although I like Conigs, I can’t fit him at M6, and picking him at M5 will be too light. Let’s see, might find a way to still fit Conigs at M6  ;)

If there's a heap of rookies (e.g. Kelly, Barry, Banfield etc) pushing for one spot is it worth forgetting Armitage?

Armitage probably likely to score a few more ppg early than those blokes but the coin you save could potentially be the difference between an upgrade elsewhere on the field

I know what you’re saying and again this is only JLT 1, will wait and see how they go game 2 which will give us all a better indication which way to go. I still think Armitage will be a pretty good return imo. He probably won’t have the year he had in 2015 where he averaged almost 110, but if he’s averaging at least 95-100 or more, he could generate some good coin and upgrade someone to a fallen premo or if you have the cash to a super premo. I like Conglio and would prefer him as he could be a keeper at worst at M8 depending on my situation or sit nicely at M9 but it’s trying to find that extra cash and sacrifice other lines.

[tommy10]

Will wait till JLT 2 but atm it’s a toss up between Brodie/Dow/Brayshaw for M7. Am leaving 1 spot for either Kelly/Barry/Banfield/Holman. Have Arma at M6 as my mid pricer as I think there’s value there. Although I like Conigs, I can’t fit him at M6, and picking him at M5 will be too light. Let’s see, might find a way to still fit Conigs at M6  ;)

Why not two mid pricers or more?
Conigs is currently M5 for me, but I don't see the difference myself. I must be the minority, because I don't pick mid pricers with the intentions of them having to be a keeper. If they turn out keepers, bonus. Mid pricers are so much easier to turn into ultra premo, go sideways and or even chip down to a rookie that you may of missed. If Conigs can get a modest gain $, I'll probably turn him into Dusty/Jelwood. That's if he's not killen it, then I'll keep him.

I just don’t like too many mid pricers but will wait and see..will be a bonus if that’s the case especially with the shower FWD rookies this year.