Liberatore

[Levi434]

I don't have Liberatore in my team as of now. But that will change as soon as he posts back to back 140's in the upcoming JLT games.

[jvalles69]

Redden has proven he can be elite in the past, struggled to break into West Coast mids past 2 years, no more Priddis and Mitchell, Mitchell is basically his midfield coach...what's not to like/love?

Has Redden been elite? Highest average of 103, not sure that would be good enough considering the downside.

Looking at his stats last year he got a fair bit in the mids in the 2nd half of season still some underwhelming scores , might improve some but I guess he is as good a pick as others in the cheaper bracket

Career best average of 103, whilst Conigs has a 106 and more upside and Libba has 106 and 110

I'd love to see Redden beast it, but the likeliness of him going 105+ might not be too high and anything under is not good enough to be in your final 8 mids

Possibly more suited to AF, will have to think long and hard if I bring him in, after r15 he was fairly consistent without the high tackle numbers so definitely room for improvement. 

[SilverLion]

Cogs>Redden>Liberatore

And if JOM is in the mix, would be difficult start more than 2/4.

[Southstorm]

Just don't understand the logic of the $450k mid this year. Realistically the chance of Libba or Coniglio or Redden averaging over 105 and being top position midfielders is pretty slim so the best realistic outcome you can hope for is that you make $100k and then side trade to a fallen premium. But with good value available at lower prices, it makes a lot more sense to me to start with the guys who you know are going to be 115 for the season and pick up players who'll generate more cash (and faster) for less.

I think the Clayton Oliver phenomenon has thrown a few people. Thing is that if it were that easy to spot when a $450k mid will become a top position player, everybody would have started with Clarry last year. Remember you can always trade a player in.

[ubeaut]

A 450 k player doesn't have to average 105+ to be worth it. 100 will make money and score above starting price giving u bang for your buck.
In Def or fwd 95 average for 450 k is a huge yes. True, they become a keeper and save a trade. But any player that averages 100 for 450 k is great value anywhere even if it requires a trade to fallen/breakout premium.
The bonus is instead of trying to pick every single top mid 1 - 5/6 u get to see who is smashing it and trade them in using your stepping stone who has made 100 k.
The hard part is picking who are the 450k players who will average 100.
I am running with JOM who can get to 90+ average for 135 k less. But if I were to look at a 450k it would be Prestia.

[quinny88]

I always go by the same rule of only picking midpricers that I think can become keepers. Never works out for me otherwise.
Rarely works for me anyway lol

[LordSneeze]

Midprice picks need to be worth it overall. I always look for 2 of 3 requirements.

1 - Do I believe that they have potential to be a top premium.
Def - Top 6 (94.1)
Mid - Top 10 (110)
Ruck - Top 2 (103)
Fwd - Top 6 (93)

2 - If they don't become a top premium, would I be happy with them as last position on field on that line. Do I think they have a good chance to hit that average.

My general rule of thumb is
Def - Top 15 (88.6)
Mid - Top 20 (102.4)
Ruck - Top 6 (95.2)
Fwd - Top 15 (87)

3 - If they don't hit my premium mark, will they make enough cash & points to be worth more than a rookie.


Petracca is a good example.
1 - No, I don't believe he is a good chance to increase from 78 to 93 and do it consistently
2 - Realistically I believe 87 is possible, but a low chance, likely average 80-90
3 - If he doesn't hit 87 will he make enough cash or points. (priced 78, if hits 85 he makes $35k-$40k) with a +7 points per game over cost. Base for Fwd rookie is $150k & +25 points (Implied 30 PPG cost)

[Colty]

Midprice picks need to be worth it overall. I always look for 2 of 3 requirements.

1 - Do I believe that they have potential to be a top premium.
Def - Top 6 (94.1)
Mid - Top 10 (110)
Ruck - Top 2 (103)
Fwd - Top 6 (93)

2 - If they don't become a top premium, would I be happy with them as last position on field on that line. Do I think they have a good chance to hit that average.

My general rule of thumb is
Def - Top 15 (88.6)
Mid - Top 20 (102.4)
Ruck - Top 6 (95.2)
Fwd - Top 15 (87)

3 - If they don't hit my premium mark, will they make enough cash & points to be worth more than a rookie.


Petracca is a good example.
1 - No, I don't believe he is a good chance to increase from 78 to 93 and do it consistently
2 - Realistically I believe 87 is possible, but a low chance, likely average 80-90
3 - If he doesn't hit 87 will he make enough cash or points. (priced 78, if hits 85 he makes $35k-$40k) with a +7 points per game over cost. Base for Fwd rookie is $150k & +25 points (Implied 30 PPG cost)

Great post.

[Bully]

Midprice picks need to be worth it overall. I always look for 2 of 3 requirements.

1 - Do I believe that they have potential to be a top premium.
Def - Top 6 (94.1)
Mid - Top 10 (110)
Ruck - Top 2 (103)
Fwd - Top 6 (93)

2 - If they don't become a top premium, would I be happy with them as last position on field on that line. Do I think they have a good chance to hit that average.

My general rule of thumb is
Def - Top 15 (88.6)
Mid - Top 20 (102.4)
Ruck - Top 6 (95.2)
Fwd - Top 15 (87)

3 - If they don't hit my premium mark, will they make enough cash & points to be worth more than a rookie.


Petracca is a good example.
1 - No, I don't believe he is a good chance to increase from 78 to 93 and do it consistently
2 - Realistically I believe 87 is possible, but a low chance, likely average 80-90
3 - If he doesn't hit 87 will he make enough cash or points. (priced 78, if hits 85 he makes $35k-$40k) with a +7 points per game over cost. Base for Fwd rookie is $150k & +25 points (Implied 30 PPG cost)

Great post.

So of the extensive batch we have in this years pool, let's just go over ceilings & potential income.

Armitage - 109 HS, likely 95, profit 125k by round 7
O'Meara - 97 HS, likely 90, profit 100k by round 7
Griffen - 116 HS, likely 80, profit 80k by round 7
Coniglio - 106 HS, likely 105, profit 60k by round 7
Redden - 103 HS, likely 95, profit 30k by round 7
Liberatore - 110 HS, likely 95, profit 30k by round 7

* Prestia currently injured so I'd steer clear at this stage


So from this analysis I'd be targeting the top 3 for a nice balance between point generation & money making ability. Coniglio is one to consider as a season keeper, he's a former top 2 pick, is still only 24 and had some super impressive scores in the tail end of the year, I personally think he can hit 110.

Now for some cool aid regarding rookies, here's a list of debutants and their respective scores.

Andrew Gaff - 61
Jordan Lewis - 62
Bryce Gibbs - 63
Angus Brayshaw - 65
Trent Cotchin - 66
Harley Bennell - 68
Marc Murphy - 70
Isaac Heeney - 70
Clayton Oliver - 70
Jack Viney - 71
Nat Fyfe - 72
Brett Deledio - 74
Ollie Wines - 75
Callum Mills - 77
Dustin Martin - 77
Joel Selwood - 77
Marcus Bontempelli - 78
David Swallow - 79
Dyson Heppell - 83
Daniel Rich - 85
Jaeger O'Meara - 90 *was held back a year due to GC inception

So realistically the current batch should be in the 65-70 range which at a starting price of 190k will make between 80-90k. We could also factor in the cost in trades but this isn't so clear cut if one lands the next Kelly, Oliver or Marc Murphy. There's also the ease at which one can turn a mid-pricer into a super premo, sometimes 1 rookie culled can get you two upgrades.

[Money Shot]

Fyfe, Cripps, Coniglio, Redden, Libba, O'meara, Armitage, Griffen

Could it be a potential starting midfield???

[shaker]

Fyfe, Cripps, Coniglio, Redden, Libba, O'meara, Armitage, Griffen

Could it be a potential starting midfield???

That depends if you are going to man up and start them  :P

[meow meow]

Armitage is likely to average 95? Doubtful Henry.

[Bully]

Fyfe, Cripps, Coniglio, Redden, Libba, O'meara, Armitage, Griffen

Could it be a potential starting midfield???

Would still have Danger at M1 but Griffen at M8 is looking mighty tempting. I've just had a play around with my squad and this approach is still in play. Currently have -

Danger, Kelly, Fyfe, Beams, Coniglio, O'Meara, Armitage, Griffen

The cost of doing this is Coffield at D4, certainly a big risk but when you look at the star juniors, the rebounding role is generally where the points are.

I didn't add Witherden in there because he only featured at the tail end of the year but an 87 average just adds weight to the argument.

Armitage is likely to average 95? Doubtful Henry.

Just as likely as Libba, even a 90 average will get you 100k. Excluding last year his scores have been 92, 93, 109 & 87.

[fasttrack13]

Perplexed as to how Libba is getting overlooked behind redden, conigs etc... Only guy who has gone better than 105 in more than 1 year, furthermore did it consecutively. He's their best clearance mid and so he's probably going to spent the least time up forward of all of them. Tackling and contested possessions have his points per possession higher than most. Also has done his first quality pre season in years.

[quinny88]

Fyfe, Cripps, Coniglio, Redden, Libba, O'meara, Armitage, Griffen

Could it be a potential starting midfield???

How many of them would people consider if they didn't play well in the first JLT game? Haha
Redden and Armo in particular were barely mentioned before this week.
Dont get me wrong though, grabbing a couple from that list could go a long way to setting up your season