James Sicily

[Spite]

It's risk/reward and given the uncertainty with the forwards this year he's a good selection. As an absolute worst case scenario, he averages 80 and you keep him as a roving bench option on two lines. As a best case scenario he does a Jeremy Howe and averages 95.

And just one final word on the floating donut, this isn't a distant plan, it could happen very early in the piece, especially given small forwards tend to rip out 100s every 5 or 6 games.

I guess we will see.

locking in a worse case scenario of 80 for a guy who's career best average is 73 is interesting to say the least.

Clearly a very obvious role change from the rest of his career...

This is standard Holz, just about every year you pick a popular player to flop just to be different hahaha

He certainly got Aaron Hall right a couple of years ago.

Thanks Ada,

I work very much on analytics and reading reports as opposed to actually watching games so a few times i get very different opinions based on this.

Sicily does have good signs, but at 400k the analytics dont stack up from a risk reward payoff. Your paying a almost proven price for a guy who isn't proven. The reason i mentioned Devon Smith is Smith has been 80+ for years so you can pay 400k+ for him with more confidence. Could Sicily be a better pick then Smith, yep 100%. Does the analytics back that up, nope.

Sicily can have all the signs in the world indicating that he could be a premo, but he has only been a premo for less then half a year, so your not getting a big enough discount in my book.

If he was 350k then i can see the hype.

Pick both, don't compare them. That is silly, they're both great value.

You are overthinking it. I'm into analytics as much as anyone but this is simply a case of;

What role did he play when he averaged 91 at the back end of last season?
Has anything changed? Is he locked into that role? No and Yes.

What were the factors that made him score poorly in that role last year? An injury affected 46 + a 25 with 7 frees against. Is he injured every week? No, anomaly. Does he give away 7 frees often? No, but it does happen. These factors LOWERED his average to 91.

How did he go in that role in JLT (ignoring score)? He looked very capable and should hold it all year.

Is this a sustainable SC scoring role? Yes, see Rance.

Therefore,
Should average 90+.

[Levi434]

I too like analytics. But just not with guys...

[ubeaut]

It's risk/reward and given the uncertainty with the forwards this year he's a good selection. As an absolute worst case scenario, he averages 80 and you keep him as a roving bench option on two lines. As a best case scenario he does a Jeremy Howe and averages 95.

And just one final word on the floating donut, this isn't a distant plan, it could happen very early in the piece, especially given small forwards tend to rip out 100s every 5 or 6 games.

I guess we will see.

locking in a worse case scenario of 80 for a guy who's career best average is 73 is interesting to say the least.

Clearly a very obvious role change from the rest of his career...

This is standard Holz, just about every year you pick a popular player to flop just to be different hahaha

He certainly got Aaron Hall right a couple of years ago.

Thanks Ada,

I work very much on analytics and reading reports as opposed to actually watching games so a few times i get very different opinions based on this.

Sicily does have good signs, but at 400k the analytics dont stack up from a risk reward payoff. Your paying a almost proven price for a guy who isn't proven. The reason i mentioned Devon Smith is Smith has been 80+ for years so you can pay 400k+ for him with more confidence. Could Sicily be a better pick then Smith, yep 100%. Does the analytics back that up, nope.

Sicily can have all the signs in the world indicating that he could be a premo, but he has only been a premo for less then half a year, so your not getting a big enough discount in my book.

If he was 350k then i can see the hype.

Pick both, don't compare them. That is silly, they're both great value.

You are overthinking it. I'm into analytics as much as anyone but this is simply a case of;

What role did he play when he averaged 91 at the back end of last season?
Has anything changed? Is he locked into that role? No and Yes.

What were the factors that made him score poorly in that role last year? An injury affected 46 + a 25 with 7 frees against. Is he injured every week? No, anomaly. Does he give away 7 frees often? No, but it does happen. These factors LOWERED his average to 91.

How did he go in that role in JLT (ignoring score)? He looked very capable and should hold it all year.

Is this a sustainable SC scoring role? Yes, see Rance.

Therefore,
Should average 90+.

I agree with everything u said except for one thing.
The coach has talked him up in this role BUT also stated he's likely to play fwd at times. He's versatile and can play either end, so if they need an extra option in attack and/or Roughy or Gunston are injured he's the likely candidate. So he's not locked totally in that role, his versatility is our ironically our only worry.
He's in my team and has been for ages, but there is that one factor that could hurt. If he was guaranteed to never play fwd he would almost be a must have at 400k.

[Holz]

I was being sarcastic. If I remember correctly you said that Hall wouldn't average more than 80 and would play in the NEAFL when Gold Coast get all of their midfielders back from injury. He averaged 95 and was the 9th best forward for the season.

ok, well the biggest call of all was you should trade him out round 5-6. My call was actually to change him to Dustin Martin for 50k cheaper.

Dusty went on to average 111 and Hall went 87 missing 5 games.

anyway im not fused about sicily, if you want him pick him. If he averages 90 good on you you get a premo at a little bit cheaper then the rest of us so thats tiny leap up on the competition. There is a decent chance of that happening so for your sake i hope your right.

my reasoning is based on one reason alone and thats sample size. I dont disagree with the points people are making, i just disagree that the conclusion that you can lock in 80+ and its extremely likely he will go 90+.

[quinny88]

It's risk/reward and given the uncertainty with the forwards this year he's a good selection. As an absolute worst case scenario, he averages 80 and you keep him as a roving bench option on two lines. As a best case scenario he does a Jeremy Howe and averages 95.

And just one final word on the floating donut, this isn't a distant plan, it could happen very early in the piece, especially given small forwards tend to rip out 100s every 5 or 6 games.

I guess we will see.

locking in a worse case scenario of 80 for a guy who's career best average is 73 is interesting to say the least.

Clearly a very obvious role change from the rest of his career...

This is standard Holz, just about every year you pick a popular player to flop just to be different hahaha

He certainly got Aaron Hall right a couple of years ago.

Thanks Ada,

I work very much on analytics and reading reports as opposed to actually watching games so a few times i get very different opinions based on this.

Sicily does have good signs, but at 400k the analytics dont stack up from a risk reward payoff. Your paying a almost proven price for a guy who isn't proven. The reason i mentioned Devon Smith is Smith has been 80+ for years so you can pay 400k+ for him with more confidence. Could Sicily be a better pick then Smith, yep 100%. Does the analytics back that up, nope.

Sicily can have all the signs in the world indicating that he could be a premo, but he has only been a premo for less then half a year, so your not getting a big enough discount in my book.

If he was 350k then i can see the hype.

Pick both, don't compare them. That is silly, they're both great value.

You are overthinking it. I'm into analytics as much as anyone but this is simply a case of;

What role did he play when he averaged 91 at the back end of last season?
Has anything changed? Is he locked into that role? No and Yes.

What were the factors that made him score poorly in that role last year? An injury affected 46 + a 25 with 7 frees against. Is he injured every week? No, anomaly. Does he give away 7 frees often? No, but it does happen. These factors LOWERED his average to 91.

How did he go in that role in JLT (ignoring score)? He looked very capable and should hold it all year.

Is this a sustainable SC scoring role? Yes, see Rance.

Therefore,
Should average 90+.

I agree with everything u said except for one thing.
The coach has talked him up in this role BUT also stated he's likely to play fwd at times. He's versatile and can play either end, so if they need an extra option in attack and/or Roughy or Gunston are injured he's the likely candidate. So he's not locked totally in that role, his versatility is our ironically our only worry.
He's in my team and has been for ages, but there is that one factor that could hurt. If he was guaranteed to never play fwd he would almost be a must have at 400k.

I don't know that he's actually that versatile. Makes a pretty average and sooky forward. In fact I don't even think he's best 22 if he's a forward

[crowls]

I was being sarcastic. If I remember correctly you said that Hall wouldn't average more than 80 and would play in the NEAFL when Gold Coast get all of their midfielders back from injury. He averaged 95 and was the 9th best forward for the season.

ok, well the biggest call of all was you should trade him out round 5-6. My call was actually to change him to Dustin Martin for 50k cheaper.

Dusty went on to average 111 and Hall went 87 missing 5 games.

anyway im not fused about sicily, if you want him pick him. If he averages 90 good on you you get a premo at a little bit cheaper then the rest of us so thats tiny leap up on the competition. There is a decent chance of that happening so for your sake i hope your right.

my reasoning is based on one reason alone and thats sample size. I dont disagree with the points people are making, i just disagree that the conclusion that you can lock in 80+ and its extremely likely he will go 90+.

so holz,   what do the analytics say for d3/4   Finding it a difficult one to tie down.   Currently rotating between hibberd, hanley, lloyd, touhy

[Holz]

I was being sarcastic. If I remember correctly you said that Hall wouldn't average more than 80 and would play in the NEAFL when Gold Coast get all of their midfielders back from injury. He averaged 95 and was the 9th best forward for the season.

ok, well the biggest call of all was you should trade him out round 5-6. My call was actually to change him to Dustin Martin for 50k cheaper.

Dusty went on to average 111 and Hall went 87 missing 5 games.

anyway im not fused about sicily, if you want him pick him. If he averages 90 good on you you get a premo at a little bit cheaper then the rest of us so thats tiny leap up on the competition. There is a decent chance of that happening so for your sake i hope your right.

my reasoning is based on one reason alone and thats sample size. I dont disagree with the points people are making, i just disagree that the conclusion that you can lock in 80+ and its extremely likely he will go 90+.

so holz,   what do the analytics say for d3/4   Finding it a difficult one to tie down.   Currently rotating between hibberd, hanley, lloyd, touhy

To be honest too early to say. I need to see the rookies first i build my way up from rookies to premos. At the moment I have a very stacked defense.

i have byrne at d5 at 230k very cautiously i will go down in price if i can. I also might make him d4 if more rookies pop up.

D3 d4 at this stage is lloyd and hibberd.

Llyod averaged 92 for the year taking out the injury and went 84 the year before do he has a base i can trust. At 470k is a price i can live with. Im taking risks elsewhere so need some cheap safety. He will be the guy i drop if i need to.

Hibberd just picks himself, dees are a fantastic sc  defensive team. Has had multiple premium years.

A very common theme in my team is i want to see 1-2 premo years before i pick a premo. 

[GoLions]

Just put him in...i feel dirtier than Riley Reid.

[Keeper27]

Just put him in...i feel dirtier than Riley Reid.

[Hoggyz_a_legend]

Just put him in...i feel dirtier than Riley Reid.

Quote of the year.

[zoomba23]

If Clarko says Sicily's the best intercept mark of the past decade, then the chances of Sicily going back to the forward line are zilch. Lock him in, I can see a 95 average coming his way.

[Mat0369]

Went down back from Round 14 onwards

93
87
109
46
104
97
130
107
25
116

That's actually a lot better than I thought. The 25 is a shocker but he did have 10 clangers LOL and just 13 touches. 14 touches in the 46 score, but he had 20+ in all other scores so seems to have the ability to go 90+ when he gets 20+ touches

Another preseason under his belt and the fact that most defenders aren't consistent too has all of a sudden put this bloke on my radar, to my surprise

The 25 was when he was tagged by Jed Lamb against Carlton. Bolton sent him to legit be in his ear the whole game and he gave away like 8 free kicks that game, including a few 50 metre pens.

It was glorious. Lang destroyed him that game. I've never seen a guy crumble the way he did in that game. Anyone that's thinking of picking him needs to go back and watch that game. He's an undisciplined douchenozzle that couldn't handle the attention when it came his way.

[Bully]

Went down back from Round 14 onwards

93
87
109
46
104
97
130
107
25
116

That's actually a lot better than I thought. The 25 is a shocker but he did have 10 clangers LOL and just 13 touches. 14 touches in the 46 score, but he had 20+ in all other scores so seems to have the ability to go 90+ when he gets 20+ touches

Another preseason under his belt and the fact that most defenders aren't consistent too has all of a sudden put this bloke on my radar, to my surprise

The 25 was when he was tagged by Jed Lamb against Carlton. Bolton sent him to legit be in his ear the whole game and he gave away like 8 free kicks that game, including a few 50 metre pens.

It was glorious. Lang destroyed him that game. I've never seen a guy crumble the way he did in that game. Anyone that's thinking of picking him needs to go back and watch that game. He's an undisciplined douchenozzle that couldn't handle the attention when it came his way.

So you think he can't learn from that? Came back and knocked out a ton the week after.

[Mat0369]

I think he's a hot head that once he gets some attention from teams will struggle and score poorly. Coaches aren't going to just let a guy sit back there all day and do as he pleases. Especially if they know they can get under his skin and it will throw his whole game off.

[Mat0369]

And it's not like Carlton put a great player on him either, it was freaking Jed Lamb