WXV Predictions 2018

[Levi434]

Premiership Standard

A few months ago I wrote-up an absolutely amazing piece where I broke down the 6 Premiership winning teams and divised the WXV Premiership Standard. Now it's time for us to check which of the 2018 squads match-up to the Premiership Standard. For reference: http://forum.fanfooty.com.au/index.php/topic,110261.msg1897552.html#msg1897552

All of these stats are based of 2017 and a special thanks to Adamant, cause I just copied his stats. Probably cause I am no good at computars and wouldn’t be able to find them myself.

VERY IMPORTANT!!!!:
Assuming all players stay the same OR improve here is what needs to happen for each team in order for them to reach Premiership standard.

Green = The player meets the premiership standrad
Red = The player does not meet the standard
Light Blue = The player reaches the elite premiership standard.

Beijing Thunder:

- Marcus Adams or Jayden Hunt to push their average above 80. The other to go between 75-79.
- Josh Caddy to push his average from 76.3 up to 83+.
- Luke Breust to average 82+.


Berlin Brewers:

- Fit the Premiership standard!


Buenos Aires Armadillos:

- Shane Biggs averages 88.5+
- Jamie MacMillan averages above 80, and preferably above 84.
- David Armitage averages 114+.
- Ed Curnow averages above 100.
- Koby Stevens averages above 91.
- Trent Dumont boost his average to 88.
- Callum Sinclair averages 86.6.
- Cale Hooker goes 95.5+.
- Darcy Parish averages 83+.
- Shane Edwards averages 83+.
- Chris Masten returns to 86.7+.
- Jimmy Webster averages 77+.

Cairo Sands:

- Sam Kerridge improves his average by 10 points to 88+.
- Whoever their ruck is averages 86.6+
- Mitch Robinson averages 95.5+.
- Ben Brown averages 83+.
- Rory Lobb averages 83+.
- Jeff Garlett averages 73.7.
- Ricky Henderson averages 86.7.
- Andrew McGrath goes from 70.7 to 77+.


Cape Town Cobras:

- Luke McDonald improves average from 83.9 to 88.5.
- Aaron Mullett averages 170.2. Or More than 84.
- Mark Blicavs increases his average from 81.6 to 88+.
- Tom Papley boosts his average to 95.5+.
- Lewis Taylor averages 83+.
- Alex Neal-Bullen averages 83+.
- Touk Miller averages 86.7+.
- Darcy Lang averages 77+.


Christchurch Saints:

- Heath Shaw goes from 83.3 up to 88.5.
- Jarrad McVeigh goes from 82.7 up to 84.
- Jarrad Waite averages 83 which is just 0.9 higher than his 2017 of 82.1.
- Daniel Wells averages 83+.
- Jake Stringer averages 82+.

Dublin Destroyers:

- Fit the Premiership standard!


London Royals:

- Adam Saad averages 88.5+.
- Heath Grundy averages 84+.
- Neville Jetta averages 75+.
- Blake Hardwick averages 72+.
- Luke Shuey averages 114+.
- Shaun Burgoyne averages 100+.
- Dom Sheed averages 91+.
- WHE averages 88+.
- Callum Sinclair averages 86.6+.
- Ryan Lester averages 83+.
- Sam Gray averages 83+.
- Orazio Fantasia averages 86.7+.
- Rhys Mathieson averages 77+.


Mexico City Suns:

- A lot… RIP Mexico. My heart…

Moscow Spetsnaz:

- Ryan Burton averages 88.5.
- Jack Crisp goes up a little from 82.2 to 84.
- Adam Treloar averages 114+.
- Dyson Heppell improves his average by 0.4.
  - Shaun Grigg averages 91.
- Jordan De Goey averages 83+.
- Jack Watts averages 83+.
- Blake Acres averages 82+.


New Delhi Tigers:

- NDT actually fit the points allocation but NOT the Premiership standard.
- Dan Hannerbery to average 114+.
- Steele Sidebottom to average 100+.
- Jack Steven to average 91+.
- Scott Selwood to average 91+.


New York Revolution:

- Robbie T my boy averages 84+.
- Shaun Higgins averages 114+.
- Jack Steele averages 100+.
- Luke Dunstan averages 91+.
- Jordan Lewis averages 91+.
- Hugh Greenwood averages 86.7+.

Pacific Islanders:

- Liam Duggan averages 68.8+. Ideally 72+.
- Jarryd Lyons averages 91+.
- Devon Smith averages 83+.
- Josh Jenkins averages 83+.
- Sam Gibson averages 86.7+.
- Cam Guthrie averages 77+.


PNL Reindeers:

- Jarrad Harbrow averages 88.5.
- Paul Seedsman averages 84+.
- Dylan Shiel averages 100+
- Ben Keays averages 91+.
- Matt Kennedy averages 91+.
- Sam Naismith averages 86.6+.
- Marley Williams averages 86.7+.
- Levi Casboult averages 77+.


Rio de Janeiro Jaguars: 

- Ben Jacobs to play more than 0 games.

Seoul Magpies: 

- Zac Touhy to average 88.5+.
- Christian Salem to average 84+.
- David Swallow to average 88+.
- Caleb Daniel to average 83+.
- Isaac Smith to average 86.7+.


Tokyo Samurai:

- Jason Johannisen to average 88.5+.
- Lachie Plowman to average 84+.
- Aidan Corr to average 75+.
- Jayden Short to average 72+.
- Sebastian Ross to average 114+.
- WHE to average 88+.
- Zac Smith to average above 86.6.
  - Tippa to average 95.5.
- Charlie Cameron to average 83+.
-  Jamie Cripps to average 83+.
- Kayne Turner to average 73.7+.


Toronto Wolves:

- Ryan Clarke to average 68.8+. Ideally 72+.
- Connor Blakely to average 91.
- Dion Prestia to average 88+.
- Jesse Hogan to average 73.7+.
- Macrae or Pendles to average 114+.




% chance of reaching Premiership Standard in the 2018 season:

Beijing Thunder:	30%
Berlin Brewers:	81%
Buenos Aires Armadillos:	0%
Cairo Sands:	6.875%
Cape Town Cobras:	10.625%
Christchurch Saints:	45%
Dublin Destroyers:	83%
London Royals:	0.01%
Mexico City Suns:	0%
Moscow Spetsnaz:	27.5%
New Delhi Tigers:	67.5%
New York Revolution:	6.67%
Pacific Islanders:	30.83%
PNL Reindeers:	1.625%
Rio de Janeiro Jaguars:	4%
Seoul Magpies:	44%
Tokyo Samurai:	0.5%
Toronto Wolves:	70%

Premiership pie:

Here we can see Levi's official likelihood of each team winning the Premiership this year.

[GoLions]

% chance of reaching Premiership Standard in the 2018 season:

Beijing Thunder:	30%
Berlin Brewers:	81%
Buenos Aires Armadillos:	0%
Cairo Sands:	6.875%
Cape Town Cobras:	10.625%
Christchurch Saints:	45%
Dublin Destroyers:	83%
London Royals:	0.01%
Mexico City Suns:	0%
Moscow Spetsnaz:	27.5%
New Delhi Tigers:	67.5%
New York Revolution:	6.67%
Pacific Islanders:	30.83%
PNL Reindeers:	1.625%
Rio de Janeiro Jaguars:	4%
Seoul Magpies:	44%
Tokyo Samurai:	0.5%
Toronto Wolves:	70%

Premiership pie:

Here we can see Levi's official likelihood of each team winning the Premiership this year.

Are these 2 related at all?

[Torpedo10]

Treloar averages 101.4, and the premiership standard dictates min. 101.2 yet Treloar is supposedly not up to standard?

Geez Levi, if you're gonna do this make sure it's accurate.  ;) In all seriousness, spectacular job!

[Purple 77]

That was crazy good, but precedent suggests we shouldn't expect anything less.

I am soooo keen to see how the EoS ladder shapes up so we can compare it to this!

And I will continue to say, Berlin always seems to go well in predictions :P but...

[Purple 77]

NDT would be unlucky if they get 2 of those mids to average less than 100, they're the flag favourite IMO.

I predict I will lose a prelim in unluckily close circumstances, and it will later reveal itself that had I won, I would have won the premiership.

*please WXV gods, don't strike me down for typing that*

[Purple 77]

Ha, and RIP Mexico City

[Nige]

Cairo to finish 9th even without a ruck, you heard it here first.

[Adamant]

Delightful Levi.

Toronto Wolves:

- Ryan Clarke to average 68.8+. Ideally 72+.
- Connor Blakely to average 91.
- Dion Prestia to average 88+.
- Jesse Hogan to average 73.7+.
- Macrae or Pendles to average 114+.

The first four should be near formalities. Pendles had gone 114+ the previous six seasons before 2017, I'll back him in to rectify that uncharacteristic DT:SC ratio. He owes me.

[Ricochet]

Dublin to finish outside the top 4

[Ricochet]

And some seriously good work there Levi. Our mids are definitely down a bit so should hopefully get a lift there

[DazBurg]

great work guys,
one tiny detail
Keays is fwd only

could just swap him round for say wallis etc,

though i imagine Cyril will be in the starting 4 of fwds over keays

[Hellopplz]

So what you're saying is we have a chance?

[Ringo]

Nice work there. Well done even though London has 0%

[Toga]

Love your work Ada and Levi, very interesting lead.

Everyone's forgotten about Sammy Mayes as an 80 avg defender for us though ;)

[meow meow]

So GAJ reaches the elite premiership standard but we don't have a worthy captain, yet NY does? Interesting.