Bully's Boys 2018

[Ringo]

Just wondering Bully whether you have heard/seen this on Nat

"Paul Hasleby has told SEN that Nic Naitanui is "not travelling well at the moment", as he trains away from the main group and isn't meant to jump. He is on light ruck duties." Whether Haselby is talking him down do not know but if true very concerning at this stage.

On the team like RD think you may be batting a little deep in defence at the expense of a more solid mid prem line.
Agree with Selwood comments from RD I am looking at him after the byes if he is going well with Ablett in the side. Between Rds 5 and 12 he has the drop off in 2014 had 4 scores less than 100, 2015 6 less, 2016 3 less and 2017 4 less so fair reason to avoid as you may drop behind pack.

With forward line will Bennell definitely be playing suspect we may not see him till mid season myself. No doubt though you have plans to cover.

Your team though but surprised with a couple of choices.

[Bully]

Heya Bully, welcome back for 2018 :)

I must admit that when I opened this thread I was totally surprised by the team that you have put

We're usually very similar in our thinking and selections which is probably why I was so surprised to see your selections, because it just doesn't look like a traditional Bully side

I'm not sure I agree with your sentiment regarding defensive rookies or the lack thereof. From all reports Ed Richards should slot right in to replace Boyd/Bob and Cam O'Shea should fill in for Docherty, so those 2 I see starting

Goddard, Murray, Keeffe, Doedee, Cumming plus a few others are all legit chances to line up Rd1 too, so for all of those reasons I think you drop a prem or two from down back

If you're going to start with just 5 mids, then I'd want them to be rock solid with no question marks. Jelwood has been a staple of my side for years, and I know you've always said he has his standard drop off 7 or so rounds in so I'm surprised you're starting him, coupled with the riskier Prestia too

As for the forward line, again I am totally surprised to see you're willing to roll the dice on all of Deledio, Cyril, Bennell and even Gray. I will admit that this is probably the hardest line to select due to no other real standouts (with Heeney injured or whatever that was) but even so I think you've got too many risky players there

Sorry for the mostly negative response, but I know you like constructive feedback as much as I do so I just thought I'd try and give you a few things to think about :)

Long post so I'll address each point one by one.

Defensive rookies are lacking in my opinion. Ed Richards has the athletic qualities but isn't ready to take up a Witherden type role, he's a late bloomer and hasn't benefited from the traditional AFL Academy pathways, I was actually surprised to see him picked so high to be honest. Similar examples like Viojo-Rainbow, Josh Rotham, Riley Bonner & Harrison Wigg have all struggled to dominate in their first year. If Richards is named round 1 he's unlikely to play 7 matches in a row. Cam O'Shea is well priced but has delivered two seasons of 50, big call to suggest he can pump out 75 again, that's already a 25-30 point difference with Birch who, fitness pending, should score at least 80. Goddard, Murray & Keefe are also players who won't get within cooee of Birch.

As for the midfield, there's some chance I'll drop Hibberd for Fyfe/Pendles if the backline rookies emerge but as stated above, I'm not so bullish on this prospect. The midfield rookies are decent this year, there's a few like Higgins, Crowden & Kelly who have an excellent scoring history and are well priced. The M-F link is also handy and loading up with types means greater flexibility. Have gone over the merits of Prestia, priced to average 82 he could easily hit 105-110. Selwood will relish Gaz in the team I think, was always a good scorer with Jimmy Bartel in the side so extra talent doesn't concern me.

As for the forwards, Robbie Gray scores like a KPF, that may well be the go this year as the options are pretty lean. The key will be eliminating the 40's with some loopholing. I'll also have a close look at Boak & Jack if Deledio doesn't make it. CRioli is a lock, will get to 450k at some stage in the year, a sideways trade to Buddy very feasible. Bennell probably the biggest risk but if named round 1 I'll roll the dice.

Just wondering Bully whether you have heard/seen this on Nat

"Paul Hasleby has told SEN that Nic Naitanui is "not travelling well at the moment", as he trains away from the main group and isn't meant to jump. He is on light ruck duties." Whether Haselby is talking him down do not know but if true very concerning at this stage.

On the team like RD think you may be batting a little deep in defence at the expense of a more solid mid prem line.
Agree with Selwood comments from RD I am looking at him after the byes if he is going well with Ablett in the side. Between Rds 5 and 12 he has the drop off in 2014 had 4 scores less than 100, 2015 6 less, 2016 3 less and 2017 4 less so fair reason to avoid as you may drop behind pack.

With forward line will Bennell definitely be playing suspect we may not see him till mid season myself. No doubt though you have plans to cover.

Your team though but surprised with a couple of choices.

Naitanui is a worry, will switch to Sauce if need be. Rucks could be a crap shoot if this occurs. Have discussed Selwood but I'll just point out that he has never had two poor years in a row. Bartel out, Gaz in, not much difference in my opinion.

[Bully]

Some minor alterations, have decided to beef up the midfield a bit at the expense of Simpson & Gray.

Def - Laird, Hibberd, Shaw, Hanley, Birchall, O'Shea (Goddard, Doedee)

Mids - Danger, Fyfe, Bontempelli, Selwood, Beams, Cripps, Griffen, Kelly (Crowden, Fogarty, Worpel)

Rucks - Martin, Gawn (Cameron)

Forwards - Dahlhaus, Rioli, Christenson, Bennell, Higgins, Keefe (Garlett, Daniels)

[ubeaut]

I agree there's not many def rookies looking likely. Hope this changes. I still think your backline is too heavy at the expense of your fwds. Rioli,Christo and Bennell is just too risky imo.
Otherwise I like your mid selections and pod in Martin in the ruck.
I'm tempted by Hanley/Barlow too. Was wondering if u see Hanley outscoring Barlow and how in a weak side they get the SC points over Hall,Weller,Lyons,Swallow etc.?

[Bully]

I agree there's not many def rookies looking likely. Hope this changes. I still think your backline is too heavy at the expense of your fwds. Rioli,Christo and Bennell is just too risky imo.
Otherwise I like your mid selections and pod in Martin in the ruck.
I'm tempted by Hanley/Barlow too. Was wondering if u see Hanley outscoring Barlow and how in a weak side they get the SC points over Hall,Weller,Lyons,Swallow etc.?

Part of the reason I'm going light in the forwards is the uncertainty surrounding the top 6. With Heeney having an interrupted preseason I think I will pass. I still like Gray but will wait for one of his down days, with Rocky in the side there's even a chance he spends more time in the midfield with Rocky being the medium forward. Will have to wait and see on that count. Menegola is a trap in my opinion, Buddy will drop in price, Boak 50/50, Wallis 50/50, Jack another roll of the dice. There may even be a young gun emerge like Petracca. From all reports Christensen is in tip top form, guranteed to make cash at a bare minimum with some chance to be a keeper. Rioli in the same boat. Bennell is the biggest risk but is rookie priced so no drama.

As for Barlow & Hanley, I think I prefer Hanley at this stage given he had a strong finish to the 2017 season. Scores of 90, 119, 100, 87 & 105 indicates he's found his role, even more so with Gaz out of the team. Barlow is coming off a very serious injury and is the wrong side of 30, he also struggled to hit the ton prior to injury, 7 straight matches without triple figures is a warning sign.

[Money Shot]

Can't fault that backline and if Hanley does come out and average around that 95+ mark you will have a huge jump of the rest of the comp. Heater with Wilson and Williams out could be back to his best as well so understand that pick.

Midfield is strong.

Rucks are strong as well, Martin as good a choice as any. Be wary of them wanting to get games into Smith/McInerey as they are younger.

Forward line is a problem in my opinion. Dahlhous is a good pick. Christensen although injury prone seems to be killing it this preseason which makes him a viable pick. Rioli is interesting, he should be good for an 85 average if fit but it just seems like he will miss games these days and that is concerning, Bennell wont ever play AFL again so you will need to get rid of him I would think.

Hanley>Rookie
Rioli>Lobb
Bennell>Best available option

Is what I would be looking at doing if I was you.

[Ringo]

Nice team Bully but as a Brisbane supporter concern with the Stef pick. Although contracted for next year still the possibility he will again seek trade back to melbourne where his Mrs is.  That being the case we will probably get games into Smith and McInerney.  So my take is Stef will be sole ruck early but when we drop out of finals possibility will blood others which may effect scoring. So be prepared to perhaps burn a trade on getting another ruck.
Although Bundy is going well think a bit risky for F3.

[Bully]

Nice team Bully but as a Brisbane supporter concern with the Stef pick. Although contracted for next year still the possibility he will again seek trade back to melbourne where his Mrs is.  That being the case we will probably get games into Smith and McInerney.  So my take is Stef will be sole ruck early but when we drop out of finals possibility will blood others which may effect scoring. So be prepared to perhaps burn a trade on getting another ruck.
Although Bundy is going well think a bit risky for F3.

Might look at Brodie Grundy in that case, seems to be trending up and is probably due for a 100 year.

Bundy at F3 looks risky but I'd rather roll the dice with the forwards this year, having plenty of M/F links means I can get the right rookies in at F5 & F6. Most of this will be contigent on Bennell & Birchall, Bundy may find himself at F4 eventually.

[Bully]

Alrighty, not touching my team until JLT. Structure set and won't change unless there's some compelling circumstances.

Def - Laird, Hibberd, Shaw, Hanley, Birchall, Doedee (Ballenden, Goddard)

Mids - Danger, Fyfe, Bontempelli, Selwood, Beams, Cripps, Wigg, Kelly (Crowden, Fogarty, Worpel)

Rucks - Jacobs, Gawn (Cameron)

Forwards - Dahlhaus, Boak, C.Rioli, Christensen, Higgins, Keefe (Garlett, Daniels)

Cash - $6000

So importantly my rookie exposure is D6, M7 & M8, F5 & F6. Happy with that for now, have gone ultra cheap in the forward line but realistically F1-F4 could all average 90+. The key here will be Birch getting up, banking on an 80 average which will be fine for the season (even at D7). Not sold on Jacobs but he's the one who doesn't have any competition. Still may go Grundy of Cox is sidelined. Have a feeling Boak will bounce back, just been named captain so no dramas with continuity. I expect Rocky to play the role Boak played last year which means more midfield time.

[Gandalf123]

Boak! How have I not seen anything about him yet,I like that.

[SilverLion]

Alrighty, not touching my team until JLT. Structure set and won't change unless there's some compelling circumstances.

Def - Laird, Hibberd, Shaw, Hanley, Birchall, Doedee (Ballenden, Goddard)

Mids - Danger, Fyfe, Bontempelli, Selwood, Beams, Cripps, Wigg, Kelly (Crowden, Fogarty, Worpel)

Rucks - Jacobs, Gawn (Cameron)

Forwards - Dahlhaus, Boak, C.Rioli, Christensen, Higgins, Keefe (Garlett, Daniels)

Cash - $6000

So importantly my rookie exposure is D6, M7 & M8, F5 & F6. Happy with that for now, have gone ultra cheap in the forward line but realistically F1-F4 could all average 90+. The key here will be Birch getting up, banking on an 80 average which will be fine for the season (even at D7). Not sold on Jacobs but he's the one who doesn't have any competition. Still may go Grundy of Cox is sidelined. Have a feeling Boak will bounce back, just been named captain so no dramas with continuity. I expect Rocky to play the role Boak played last year which means more midfield time.

Interesting side, really stands out compared to most sides here on FF. Backs and Mids run deep, but a lot of those 500-600 mids which most people only really have 1 of. Forward line a little thin but if those mid proceed work out then could pay dividends.

Also agreed with above, the Boak pick is intriguing.

[Money Shot]

Really like this team as there are plenty of pods who are a real chance of being in that top 5-10 range come seasons end which is exactly what puts you ahead of the rest of the pack.

Defence is great with 4 premiums from the start, slight query on Shaw as last season was a shocker but with Wilson gone and Williams injured there really doesn't seem to be anyone else meaning that Shaw could be back to his best. Hanley had a really strong end to last season and with GAJ gone he should see more midifield minutes, I have decided to just wait and see on him and if he does kill it up until round 10 I will trade him in (even if he is 75k dearer). Birchall if fit is a good pick also.

Midfield is good as apart from Danger all premiums are underpriced. Leaves you room to get a cheaper Martin and Mitchell as well. Really like it and gives me something to think about.

Rucks are standard on FF but will be better than the rest of the comp.

Forward line is quite risky but could really pay off. Dahlhaus could be back to his best and if he could be the number one forward. Boak is in the same boat as Hanley for me but is a really nice pod and with Port looking competitive this year he could really pay off. Rioli only needs to play up until his bye to make money and I think he will score 85-90 which is more than enough, Bundy is killing training and should go 80-85 comfortably and make money as well.

I really like this team.

[ubeaut]

Yeah im impressed. By going the cheaper prem mids u have fit 6 in,4 backs,2 rucks and 2 fwds. 13 - 14 keepers. Everytime I try to pick a cheaper/pod midfield I end up putting in Danger,Martin and or Mitchell. The top 5 -10 mids rarely stays the same in consecutive years. Its just so hard to pick which of the 15-20 lower priced mids will end up top 10.
You are backing Selwood and co. to do this so good on ya.
Only issue I see is Rioil at F3. If he goes down early u are exposed in the fwds with no sideways option. Im trying to have a similar structure but there's not much available at his price.
Boak could pay off but I though he would play more fwd again?
Anyway great team I like it.

[Bully]

Cheers for the feedback, certainly concerns surrounding Rioli's durability, I would hope he lasts at least 5 rounds, in which case I should be able to scrounge up enough to get a fallen premo. I have tried to avoid the high standard deviation players ie. KPF, Dusty, Gray etc. Will look at getting TMitch, Kelly or Dusty as my last 2 midfield picks. Still uncomfortable with the ruck situation but everyone is in the same boat.

Have also mentioned the Keefe/Ballenden combo in another thread but this presents as the perfect roving donut set-up. Pretty confident both will get games this year. With the rookie defenders light this year I will pick both if only one gets the call-up.

[Bully]

Ok, I'm cooling on Heater and have made the adjustments, have exposed my backline but the Cumming talk has me reasonbly comfortable with a straight Shaw - Coniglio swap. Mids now look rock solid.

Rucks still up in the air, enjoying the debate re. Sauce/Grundy/Goldy.

Forwards the most speculative line but hopefully I get lucky with Cyril.