Bully's Boys 2018

[Ringo]

Fair enough. Only reason and just me I still have doubts on Kelly. And like your overall reasoning especially Dusty falling.

[Bully]

Fair enough. Only reason and just me I still have doubts on Kelly. And like your overall reasoning especially Dusty falling.

To be honest I think Kelly has more chance of holding his ground than Dusty or TMitch, firstly his standard deviation is rock solid, lowest score of 88 & 16 tons in the last 18 games. Add to that is the fact he can go large, 176, 147 & 144 indicates he has all the armoury. Don't think he's easily tagged either, runs all day and has the support around him.

As for TMitch, reckon he's hit his ceiling, I get the fact he won't cop close attention but there's a good reason for that, he lacks hurt factor. 10 clangers in the last match speaks volumes. The last bloke who broke the disposal record was Neale & his numbers have dropped off a bit. 110 seems to be right for his style of player.

The big improver will be Bont I think, 120 not beyond the realms of possibility. Have posted before that he averaged 122 over a 26 match stretch spanning early 2016 to early 2017. The fact that this wasn't a calender year just means he comes with a handy discount. Preseason form was exceptional, notably the contested marking. Really surprised people have latched onto Cripps instead.

[Money Shot]

All fair points, also think Libba should be safe for a 100 average and think 70 is more likely for Brayshaw which means 15 extra points a game. Although Dusty and a rookie looks nicer from a premium/rookie point of view this option does look better when you do the maths.

[fasttrack13]

Fair enough. Only reason and just me I still have doubts on Kelly. And like your overall reasoning especially Dusty falling.

To be honest I think Kelly has more chance of holding his ground than Dusty or TMitch, firstly his standard deviation is rock solid, lowest score of 88 & 16 tons in the last 18 games. Add to that is the fact he can go large, 176, 147 & 144 indicates he has all the armoury. Don't think he's easily tagged either, runs all day and has the support around him.

As for TMitch, reckon he's hit his ceiling, I get the fact he won't cop close attention but there's a good reason for that, he lacks hurt factor. 10 clangers in the last match speaks volumes. The last bloke who broke the disposal record was Neale & his numbers have dropped off a bit. 110 seems to be right for his style of player.

The big improver will be Bont I think, 120 not beyond the realms of possibility. Have posted before that he averaged 122 over a 26 match stretch spanning early 2016 to early 2017. The fact that this wasn't a calender year just means he comes with a handy discount. Preseason form was exceptional, notably the contested marking. Really surprised people have latched onto Cripps instead.

Kelly has pendlebury like capabilities yet is more damaging on the scoreboard and his ball use is way better. STAR

[MontyJnr]

FINAL TEAM REVEAL (DANGER IN!)



Defence

No real PODs here, Savage is at 9% so could be considered unique. The reason I've opted him over Lloyd is their relative ceilings. Lloyd struggles to score over 120 whilst Savage has the ability to go 140+, 7 tons in his last 10 games (including JLT) tells me he's in red hot form. Like others have suggested Savage is a beautiful kick and will be used as the chief distributer.

Still not quite sold on Naughton but another Adams injury just about seals his selection. Will consider Cole or O'Shea if named. Doedee takes the E most weeks & Keeffe will be my loophole man. If any cheap rookie in the backs or forwards makes a compelling case for selection I'll use a correction trade, otherwise I'm perfectly content to lose a bit of cash.

Mids

Deep with a secret weapon by the name of Dangerfield. Now at 21% which is understandable given the circumstances but will be a huge advantage when relying on C duties. Will loop Holman and hopefully get a half decent score, if it's dreadful I may even bring in Selwood for a week or 2, will assess that at the time. I like my Kelly selection, most people have TMitch & Dusty but I will be hoping they get off to slow starts. Armitage gets the nod ahead of JOM, his early draw just a little bit more enticing. Have Garlett in the mids to create a midfield link, with pickett going down I think he's a certainty.

Rucks

Gawn at 60% ownership, Goldy at 5%. Unbelievable considering Goldy has a 128 season to his name. Not worried about Preuss, I reckon his chances are slim at best to dislodge Goldy from the top spot.

Forwards

Billings picks himself. Devon Smith is slightly risky but he'll be in the guts for most of the year so I expect 90+ most weeks. Sicily is my swingman & donut maker, Lobb shuld be first ruck & lead the comp for HOTAs in 2017, contested marking is also a feature and ranked number 2 at GWS last year. Cyril is my wildcard, reckon he can become a keeper which is why I picked him ahead of Bundy. Rookies maybe subject to change but will assess when teams are announced. Haven't ruled out Venables either.

Very nice team, but you have taken way too many risks to be a serious threat for the 50k i would think.

Savage needs to break out 90+ for the first time ever
Sicily needs to break out 90+ for the first time ever
Devon Smith needs to break out 90+ for the first time ever
Goldstein needs to recapture his 2015 form to keep Preuss out of the side.
Lobb needs to bounce back from an injury interrupted pre-season and keep Simpson out of the side
Cyril needs to bounce back from an injury interrupted pre-season and recapture his pre-2017 form
Danger needs to retain his status as perma-captain (at his price) to justify benching R1, despite addition of Ablett and first hammy injury
Armitage needs to bounce back from an injury ravaged 2 years
At least two of Bont, Libba & Coniglio must be Top 10 to compete with the best midfields

Now don’t get me wrong, I’m personally confident some of these risks will come off. However, history shows us that a fair portion of these risks won’t work out

For example, you might get an edge on the competition starting Lobb, who overcomes injury and establishes himself as clear Number 1 ruck at GWS. But this masterstroke move is then cancelled out by Devon Smith bombing and not getting the midfield time he was getting in the JLT.

The above is just an example of course, but I feel the top teams always choose a relatively cookie-cutter starting side and then limit themselves to only 1-3 of the CORRECT risks. What those risks might be? Well that is part of the fun trying to guess isn’t it?

[Bully]

Happy with the risks I'm taking, think you have to think outside the square to win, last year proved guns & rookies wasn't the way to go. I reckon this year will be the same. But to address all your concerns.

Savage - Has scored 7 tons in his last 10 matches (including JLT) & averaged over 100. Confidence is sky high & he's the most likely breakout contender with the sub 500k backs.

Sicily - Much like Savage he's in a very SC friendly role, at worst he averages 80 and can cover two lines as a roving D7/F7. Ranked number 2 in the league for intercept marks once switched to defence.

Devon Smith - Was traded to Essendon on the promise of midfield minutes. Showed plenty in JLT and has in fact averaged 91 in 2014 & 89 in 2015. Lifting that a few points entirely feasible. Big ceiling too, has a 172 HS & numerous 120+ games.

Goldstein - reckon he's safe for 105 but it's the upside which appeals. Only ruck in the pool to have a 128 season to his name. Has been heavily documented that his poor form was a direct result of personal issues. Looks to have overcome that now.

Cyril - Is the best mid priced forward in my opinion. Need to take some risks at F5 and he's a likely 90+ candidate.

Danger - Bet the house he'll be a top 8 midfielder & is the best captain option by a country mile.

Armitage - Looks to be in good form, 1.24 points per minute in JLT & is in the leadership group. Expecting around 90 & will look to upgrade round 7 or thereabouts.

Bont - Averaged 122 between round seven 2016 & round six 2017, huge upside and could easily be ranked in the top 2 or 3 mids by seasons end.

Coniglio - If he hits 106 like he did in 2016 then he's a great pick. At the age of 24 he's right in the sweet spot to lift his numbers to 110.

Libba - Has a 110 season to his name, reckon he's good for 100 this year and will provide a good stepping stone.

Lobb - Likely first ruck & ranked number 1 in the comp for HOTA in 2017. Also ranked 2 at GWS for contested marks.

Of course not all of these picks will come off but they also won't be losing money, that's paramount. Still have 30 trades to get guys like Dusty, Heeney, Hurley etc. I've also picked plenty of mature age rookies to field so I'm confident with my starting 22.

[crowls]

Well put Bully.     for me i see better value than cogs, arma and cryil.
m5 must be a keeper   so cripps, bont, beams are my preferred choices.   agree m6 needs to be a fallen prem or breakout.    i am backing jom (again) you have armitage.   no real difference.


Cyril never been consistent enough for me and coming back in after injury will likely be more up and down.    Can see the choice is bundy or cyril so fair enough.   Not sure on dev.   given new club and role mid 90s should be a reasonably likely result.   i am going mclean over dev.   not much in it.     sicily and lobb two good options.   expect lobb to be top 5 ruck which will probably make him top 5 fwd as well.   


suggest
arm>brayshaw
cogs>cripps

[MontyJnr]

Happy with the risks I'm taking, think you have to think outside the square to win, last year proved guns & rookies wasn't the way to go. I reckon this year will be the same. But to address all your concerns.

Savage - Has scored 7 tons in his last 10 matches (including JLT) & averaged over 100. Confidence is sky high & he's the most likely breakout contender with the sub 500k backs.

Sicily - Much like Savage he's in a very SC friendly role, at worst he averages 80 and can cover two lines as a roving D7/F7. Ranked number 2 in the league for intercept marks once switched to defence.

Devon Smith - Was traded to Essendon on the promise of midfield minutes. Showed plenty in JLT and has in fact averaged 91 in 2014 & 89 in 2015. Lifting that a few points entirely feasible. Big ceiling too, has a 172 HS & numerous 120+ games.

Goldstein - reckon he's safe for 105 but it's the upside which appeals. Only ruck in the pool to have a 128 season to his name. Has been heavily documented that his poor form was a direct result of personal issues. Looks to have overcome that now.

Cyril - Is the best mid priced forward in my opinion. Need to take some risks at F5 and he's a likely 90+ candidate.

Danger - Bet the house he'll be a top 8 midfielder & is the best captain option by a country mile.

Armitage - Looks to be in good form, 1.24 points per minute in JLT & is in the leadership group. Expecting around 90 & will look to upgrade round 7 or thereabouts.

Bont - Averaged 122 between round seven 2016 & round six 2017, huge upside and could easily be ranked in the top 2 or 3 mids by seasons end.

Coniglio - If he hits 106 like he did in 2016 then he's a great pick. At the age of 24 he's right in the sweet spot to lift his numbers to 110.

Libba - Has a 110 season to his name, reckon he's good for 100 this year and will provide a good stepping stone.

Lobb - Likely first ruck & ranked number 1 in the comp for HOTA in 2017. Also ranked 2 at GWS for contested marks.

Of course not all of these picks will come off but they also won't be losing money, that's paramount. Still have 30 trades to get guys like Dusty, Heeney, Hurley etc. I've also picked plenty of mature age rookies to field so I'm confident with my starting 22.

Your reasoning is sound and I can understand why you are optimistic about every selection, but your relying on so much to change from last season.

We obviously differ in opinion here, but i think 2017 will prove to be an outlier in terms of so many midpricers breaking out. We had not seen anything other than the guns-n-rookies (with a few risks) approach succeeding in all of the 8 years prior, so why would everything suddenly change now? Outside changes to ruck scoring, I cannot see any logical explanation.

[crowls]

Happy with the risks I'm taking, think you have to think outside the square to win, last year proved guns & rookies wasn't the way to go. I reckon this year will be the same. But to address all your concerns.

Savage - Has scored 7 tons in his last 10 matches (including JLT) & averaged over 100. Confidence is sky high & he's the most likely breakout contender with the sub 500k backs.

Sicily - Much like Savage he's in a very SC friendly role, at worst he averages 80 and can cover two lines as a roving D7/F7. Ranked number 2 in the league for intercept marks once switched to defence.

Devon Smith - Was traded to Essendon on the promise of midfield minutes. Showed plenty in JLT and has in fact averaged 91 in 2014 & 89 in 2015. Lifting that a few points entirely feasible. Big ceiling too, has a 172 HS & numerous 120+ games.

Goldstein - reckon he's safe for 105 but it's the upside which appeals. Only ruck in the pool to have a 128 season to his name. Has been heavily documented that his poor form was a direct result of personal issues. Looks to have overcome that now.

Cyril - Is the best mid priced forward in my opinion. Need to take some risks at F5 and he's a likely 90+ candidate.

Danger - Bet the house he'll be a top 8 midfielder & is the best captain option by a country mile.

Armitage - Looks to be in good form, 1.24 points per minute in JLT & is in the leadership group. Expecting around 90 & will look to upgrade round 7 or thereabouts.

Bont - Averaged 122 between round seven 2016 & round six 2017, huge upside and could easily be ranked in the top 2 or 3 mids by seasons end.

Coniglio - If he hits 106 like he did in 2016 then he's a great pick. At the age of 24 he's right in the sweet spot to lift his numbers to 110.

Libba - Has a 110 season to his name, reckon he's good for 100 this year and will provide a good stepping stone.

Lobb - Likely first ruck & ranked number 1 in the comp for HOTA in 2017. Also ranked 2 at GWS for contested marks.

Of course not all of these picks will come off but they also won't be losing money, that's paramount. Still have 30 trades to get guys like Dusty, Heeney, Hurley etc. I've also picked plenty of mature age rookies to field so I'm confident with my starting 22.

Your reasoning is sound and I can understand why you are optimistic about every selection, but your relying on so much to change from last season.

We obviously differ in opinion here, but i think 2017 will prove to be an outlier in terms of so many midpricers breaking out. We had not seen anything other than the guns-n-rookies (with a few risks) approach succeeding in all of the 8 years prior, so why would everything suddenly change now? Outside changes to ruck scoring, I cannot see any logical explanation.

witts or no witts seemed to play a part last year as well as right mid priced fwds, 

[Bully]

Well put Bully.     for me i see better value than cogs, arma and cryil.
m5 must be a keeper   so cripps, bont, beams are my preferred choices.   agree m6 needs to be a fallen prem or breakout.    i am backing jom (again) you have armitage.   no real difference.


Cyril never been consistent enough for me and coming back in after injury will likely be more up and down.    Can see the choice is bundy or cyril so fair enough.   Not sure on dev.   given new club and role mid 90s should be a reasonably likely result.   i am going mclean over dev.   not much in it.     sicily and lobb two good options.   expect lobb to be top 5 ruck which will probably make him top 5 fwd as well.   


suggest
arm>brayshaw
cogs>cripps

Armitage has Brisbane & North first up, reckon that will get his cash generation off to a flier. Brayshaw also a good pick but I think 75 would be his absolute ceiling. If it turns out that he pumps out a couple of tons then I can easily trade down in round 3.

Cripps was someone I looked at but the forward line experiment might come with a few yips along the way. 110 not out of the question but certainly not a sure thing.

Also had Beams in my side for awhile but took him out due to durability. Will still score well & would be someone to consider if prepared to blow an injury trade. Coniglio good enough to fill M8 IMO.

[Bully]

Happy with the risks I'm taking, think you have to think outside the square to win, last year proved guns & rookies wasn't the way to go. I reckon this year will be the same. But to address all your concerns.

Savage - Has scored 7 tons in his last 10 matches (including JLT) & averaged over 100. Confidence is sky high & he's the most likely breakout contender with the sub 500k backs.

Sicily - Much like Savage he's in a very SC friendly role, at worst he averages 80 and can cover two lines as a roving D7/F7. Ranked number 2 in the league for intercept marks once switched to defence.

Devon Smith - Was traded to Essendon on the promise of midfield minutes. Showed plenty in JLT and has in fact averaged 91 in 2014 & 89 in 2015. Lifting that a few points entirely feasible. Big ceiling too, has a 172 HS & numerous 120+ games.

Goldstein - reckon he's safe for 105 but it's the upside which appeals. Only ruck in the pool to have a 128 season to his name. Has been heavily documented that his poor form was a direct result of personal issues. Looks to have overcome that now.

Cyril - Is the best mid priced forward in my opinion. Need to take some risks at F5 and he's a likely 90+ candidate.

Danger - Bet the house he'll be a top 8 midfielder & is the best captain option by a country mile.

Armitage - Looks to be in good form, 1.24 points per minute in JLT & is in the leadership group. Expecting around 90 & will look to upgrade round 7 or thereabouts.

Bont - Averaged 122 between round seven 2016 & round six 2017, huge upside and could easily be ranked in the top 2 or 3 mids by seasons end.

Coniglio - If he hits 106 like he did in 2016 then he's a great pick. At the age of 24 he's right in the sweet spot to lift his numbers to 110.

Libba - Has a 110 season to his name, reckon he's good for 100 this year and will provide a good stepping stone.

Lobb - Likely first ruck & ranked number 1 in the comp for HOTA in 2017. Also ranked 2 at GWS for contested marks.

Of course not all of these picks will come off but they also won't be losing money, that's paramount. Still have 30 trades to get guys like Dusty, Heeney, Hurley etc. I've also picked plenty of mature age rookies to field so I'm confident with my starting 22.

Your reasoning is sound and I can understand why you are optimistic about every selection, but your relying on so much to change from last season.

We obviously differ in opinion here, but i think 2017 will prove to be an outlier in terms of so many midpricers breaking out. We had not seen anything other than the guns-n-rookies (with a few risks) approach succeeding in all of the 8 years prior, so why would everything suddenly change now? Outside changes to ruck scoring, I cannot see any logical explanation.

Guns & rookies died a bit when they started plonking all the premo forwards into the midfield. Was so easy when Dusty, Gray, Danger, Parker etc were available. Now one has to become more risk taking with their selections, but a few clear trends have emerged over that time.

1. First rucks are like gold as forwards, Ryder, Nank, Stef Martin are good examples of this. Just gotta catch them when they make the transition. This is why Lobb represents oustanding value.

2. Midfield minutes can make or break your picks. Guys like Smith, McLean, Billings & Heeney have all been earmarked for significant  time in the middle, therefore they represent good value. The trick here is to make sure you have the correct information. Caddy traps are frequent, especially when relying on JLT data.

3. Defensive rebounders are a critical part of the mix, a guy like Sicily seems to have a mortgage on that position, especially given Birchall is out for 12 weeks.

4. Forwards only need to score 90+these days, that's a pretty low bar and enables one to roll the dice a bit more. I actually like it because we see fewer cookie cutter sides.

5. Mid pricers have more relevence now given the lack of clarity with the top 6. Can guarantee there will be some more surprises this year. No-one would have picked Yeo at the start of the season but referring back to point 3, you have good odds when you narrow it down to position type.

6. Always pay strict attention to form lines after the byes. This can be a great precurser to what may unfold with the upcoming season. Those who analysed Howe for example were duly rewarded. 10 games is generally a good sample size to work with.

[HappyDEZ]

Caddy traps are frequent LOL

[crowls]

Caddy traps are frequent LOL

especially Tiger's caddy  ::)

[HappyDEZ]

Caddy traps are frequent LOL

especially Tiger's caddy  ::)

I am actually giving him a run in my AF team as it stands atm.

[Money Shot]

My team is very guns and rooks this season so I am really excited to see how it compares to your team in the long run. Only pick I dont trust is Cyril.