Recent History

[Adamant]

People seem to get hung up about having the top 10 midfielders, defenders etc at seasons end and how essential it is if you want to do well at this game. I've looked at the past 5 seasons and the top 10/4 ranked players for each position to see just how unpredictable these lists end up.



  2013

Defenders Brendon Goddard Bob Murphy Michael Hibberd Bryce Gibbs Pearce Hanley Heath Shaw Garrick Ibbotson Grant Birchall Harry Taylor Bachar Houli Avg.          106 98.8 95.9 95.7 95.7 95.6 94.5 94 92.5 91.6

Midfielders Gary Ablett Jnr Scott Pendlebury Joel Selwood Dane Swan Ryan Griffen Leigh Montagna Patrick Dangerfield Jobe Watson Jack Steven Michael Barlow Avg.          128.8 125.5 117.2 116.8 116.3 114.7 112.9 111.4 109.9 109.2

Rucks Will Minson Todd Goldstein Dean Cox Ivan Maric Avg.          114.3 113.5 107.3 98.9

Forwards Steve Johnson Tom Rockliff Jimmy Bartel Nick Riewoldt Andrew Walker Brent Harvey Drew Petrie Dustin Martin Justin Westhoff Matthew Stokes Avg. 117.2 109.6 106.7 105.1 104.6 104 102.7 100.3 97.8 97.1

  2014

Defenders Pearce Hanley David Swallow Nick Malceski Jimmy Bartel Jarrad McVeigh Sam Mitchell Luke Hodge Kade Simpson Brodie Smith Shaun Burgoyne Avg.          103.7 103.1 101.4 100.3 99.2 98.7 96.1 95.4 93.5 92.8

Midfielders Gary Ablett Jnr Tom Rockliff Scott Pendlebury Joel Selwood Nathan Fyfe Dayne Beams Rory Sloane Steele Sidebottom Josh P. Kennedy Callan Ward Avg.          136.7 132 124.4 123.3 122.3 115.5 114.8 113.2 113.1 112.8

Rucks Sam Jacobs Shane Mumford Stefan Martin Todd Goldstein Avg.          115.3 114.1 111.7 108.9

Forwards Robbie Gray Brent Harvey Patrick Dangerfield Lance Franklin Dustin Martin Dayne Zorko Ben McGlynn Paul Chapman Matthew Stokes Jarryd Roughead Avg. 110.9 107.1 105.6 100.8 99.3 98.9 97.1 96.2 95 94.5

  2015

Defenders Heath Shaw Luke Hodge Liam Picken Alex Rance Tom McDonald Corey Enright Bachar Houli Michael Hurley Rory Laird Kade Simpson Avg.          112.6 111 99.1 98.1 95.9 95.6 95.3 94.8 94.2 92.7

Midfielders Nathan Fyfe Patrick Dangerfield Scott Pendlebury Gary Ablett Jnr Daniel Hannebery Dayne Beams Josh P. Kennedy Matthew Priddis David Mundy Leigh Montagna Avg.          123.7 120 116.2 115.5 114.4 113.4 113.1 113 111.2 111

Rucks Todd Goldstein Stefan Martin Aaron Sandilands Sam Jacobs Avg.          128.1 110.7 107.5 107.3

Forwards Brett Deledio Robbie Gray Dane Swan Luke Dahlhaus Dustin Martin Marcus Bontempelli Tom Mitchell Harley Bennell Dayne Zorko Chad Wingard Avg. 111.8 110.4 105.9 104.7 103.9 103.7 102.9 101.7 100.6 97.7

  2016

Defenders Sam Docherty Kade Simpson Heath Shaw Matthew Boyd Corey Enright Alex Rance Rory Laird James Kelly Shaun Burgoyne Jason Johannisen Avg.          108.7 106.3 103.7 100 99.5 98.4 97.5 96.2 95.5 93.5

Midfielders Patrick Dangerfield Scott Pendlebury Gary Ablett Jnr Josh P. Kennedy Lachie Neale Adam Treloar Tom Rockliff Joel Selwood Daniel Hannebery Luke Parker Avg.          131.9 118.6 114.7 113.5 112.6 111.2 111 110.8 110.7 108.7

Rucks Max Gawn Todd Goldstein Nic Naitanui Shane Mumford Avg.          118.5 108.9 105.9 97.2

Forwards Zach Merrett Dayne Zorko Nick Riewoldt Daniel Wells Leigh Montagna Michael Barlow Luke Dahlhaus Josh J. Kennedy Aaron Hall Lance Franklin Avg. 111.4 109 101 100.4 98.9 98 97.2 96.9 95.5 95.1

  2017

Defenders Sam Docherty Taylor Adams Michael Hurley Rory Laird Michael Hibberd Jeremy Howe Bachar Houli Kade Simpson Zac Williams Dylan Roberton Avg.          114,7 107.5 102.5 100.2 99.2 94.1 94.1 93.9 93.9 92.6

Midfielders Patrick Dangerfield Dustin Martin Tom Mitchell Gary Ablett Jnr Josh Kelly Clayton Oliver Dayne Zorko Matt Crouch Rory Sloane Mitch Duncan Avg.          136.4 119.3 118.9 114.8 114.3 111.5 110.8 110.6 110.2 109.8

Rucks Matthew Kreuzer Patrick Ryder Shane Mumford Stefan Martin Avg.          109.8 103 98.3 98.2

Forwards Jackson Macrae Elliot Yeo Lance Franklin Isaac Heeney Toby Greene Josh J. Kennedy Chad Wingard Jack Billings Shaun Higgins Jack Steele Avg. 107 102.1 98.3 97.6 96.1 93.5 93 92.7 91.9 91.1

Key

• Players in blue have been in the top echelon of their position every year for the past 5 seasons, rating them god status.

• Players in green have been in the top echelon of their position 3-4 times in the past 5 seasons, rating them elite.

• Players in red have been in the top echelon of their position twice in the past 5 seasons, rating them high end premiums.

*current players only

[Adamant]

Notes

• Apart from 2015 where 3/4 of the highest averaging rucks from the previous season remained the same, there has been only 1 ruck that has backed up their top 4 placing in the following season (Goldy had been a consecutive top 4 ruck every season up until 2017, Mumford went back-to-back in 2016-17). Mummy is no longer there so we'll slide Grundy into his spot. There is a good chance that at least 3 of Kreuzer, Ryder, Martin and Grundy will not be in the top 4 rucks in 2018.

• Gary Ablett Jnr is the ONLY player that has been in the top echelon of their position every year for the past 5 seasons. Please keep writing him off.

• Excluding the rucks, the most a position has remained the same was in 2016 with 5/10 midfielders backing up their previous season (Dangerfield, Pendlebury, Ablett, Hannebery and Kennedy). History says at best only 50% of the top 2017 defenders, midfielders and forwards will back it up in 2018.

• I haven't seen perennial top 10 defender Bachar Houli or midfielder JPK in many sides. The latter is 11ppg underpriced from his 2016 average.

• Over the past 5 seasons, players aged 29 or over have made up 38% of the top 10 defenders, 20% for mids, 30% for rucks and 34% for forwards. Don't write off the oldies.

• The forward line is historically the hardest position to predict, with 2015 being the best year where 3/10 remained from the previous season. There have been 8 or 9 new faces every other season.

• In 2013, 9 top ranked players increased their average by 17 points or more from the previous season, only 2 remained in the top 10 of their position in 2014. 4/9 backed it up in 2015, 3/10 in 2016 and 0/5 in 2017. The majority of Hibberd, Kelly, Oliver, Crouch, Duncan, Kreuzer, Ryder, Yeo, Heeney, Billings and Steele are flowered.

• The forward line is the place to take punts with the most players (12/50 or 24%) that increased their average by 17 points or more from the previous season that ended up in the top 10 (from oldest season to most recent: 4, 3, 3, 2). This is closely followed by the backline with 11/50 or 22%.

• Only 22 current players have been in the top echelon of their position for consecutive seasons. These players are: Hanley, Ablett, Pendlebury, Selwood, Goldstein, Dustin Martin, Hodge, Simpson, Fyfe, Beams, Josh P Kennedy, Jacobs, Stefan Martin, Gray, Zorko, Shaw, Rance, Laird, Hannebery, Dahlhaus, Josh J Kennedy and Franklin.

• History says at least two defenders that averaged between 59.1 and 79.3 in 2017 will be top 10 defenders in 2018. Clarke, McGrath, Scharenberg, Maynard, Kolodjashnij, Sicily, Mills, Ryan, Hanley, Vlastuin, Pittard anyone?



What was the point of all this? Having the top 10 players is overrated, the loss of points early in the season by having to field 55 averaging spuds is underrated.

Brad Ebert and his 100.5 average was only good enough for 25th in the competition out of all midfielders in 2017. But was the extra 9.7 points scored by Rory Sloane (9th highest averaging mid) worth the extra 155k? that extra cash could have been used to turn a higher priced rookie into Jack Steele (91.1 average and the 10th highest averaging fwd).

Obviously you need a bit of luck to pick the correct mid-pricers but there are players floating around that I'd be reasonably confident picking. Coniglio, Prestia, Libba and Redden have all averaged over 100 before to name a few. They are all priced at 83 or less and are worth serious consideration.

[Peter]

Excellent research Adamant. You hit the nail on the head - you have 3 or 4 midfielders that will be green in 2018, the trick and skill of us coaches is to select the Mitchell, Oliver, Steele of 2018 and that can be your 4th and or 5th mf. With Rucks, you can be impacted by injury (Kruezer) and the desire of coaches to develop a second ruck option (Cox, Smith, Lycett). How many trades do you want to use up finding the next gun or take the existing ones and trade up to the emerging guns. A great challenge for all of us

[enzedder]

That's some brilliant work there mate.
Simmo has been in the top10 for last 4 years and averaged 95 in the year he missed out. Was he a mid that year?

[enzedder]

Notes


• Gary Ablett Jnr is the ONLY player that has been in the top echelon of their position every year for the past 5 seasons. Please keep writing him off.

And Danger albeit in forwards one year. Only the silly are writing him off.

[SilverLion]

Notes


• Gary Ablett Jnr is the ONLY player that has been in the top echelon of their position every year for the past 5 seasons. Please keep writing him off.

And Danger albeit in forwards one year. Only the silly are writing him off.

Not writing him off, just think there's less injury prone options available for 631k or less ;D

[Adamant]

• 3 top ranked players (2 def, 1 mid) in 2013 couldn't back it up the following season, but were able to reclaim their top 10 mantle two seasons later in 2015. 4 players (1 def, 2 mids, 1 fwd) did the same between 14-16 and 5 players (2 def, 1 ruck, 2 fwds) between 15-17. History says that Heath Shaw and Alex Rance are likely to be top 10 defenders again in 2018, while a further 1-3 players from 2016 will also get back there.

• One midfielder that averaged between 87.8 and 91 in 2017 is a good chance to be top 10 in 2018. Connor Blakely looks like the best shout from this bracket.

• History says at least two forwards that averaged between 71.7 and 83.8 in 2017 will be top 10 forwards in 2018. Give some thought to Lobb, Mathieson, Acres, Curnow, Parish, Petracca, De Goey, Daniel, Smith, Martin and Papley.



What do these numbers tell us in relation to 2018?

Kade Simpson, Heath Shaw and Rory Laird are near locks to be top 10 defenders. Heater is a whopping 22.6 points underpriced from his 2016 average and will be out to reclaim his mantle. Hanley might be the second best value defender going around. Bachar is another likely top 10 defender that is flying under the radar

GAJ will be the 4th highest averaging midfielder at worst. It's very likely that at least one Sydney mid will be top 10 - Hanners, JPK and Parker are all 10 points underpriced or more.

2017's breakouts in Kelly, Oliver, Crouch and Duncan are in a bit of strife. Perhaps think twice before forking out 600k for these blokes.

Max Gawn is the undisputed biggest lock in the competition, but Stefan Martin might be the safest premium ruck. Kreuzer and Ryder simply cannot be top 4 rucks in 2018.

Dayne Zorko is underrated even as a mid only.

Get funky in the forward line. 7-9 of Franklin, Heeney, Greene, JJK, Wingard, Billings, Dixon, Dahlhaus, Cameron and Wallis won't be top 10 in 2018. You'd be a brave man to bet against Buddy however.

But above all, this shower is impossible to predict.

[Peter]

Summed up your work nicely in last sentence

[meow meow]

The #1 thing to extract from all that is that Wilbur was a god.

[frenzy]

The #1 thing to extract from all that is that Wilbur was a god.

Lol, and now he's gone to heaven.....Norf.

[Levi434]

• Gary Ablett Jnr is the ONLY player that has been in the top echelon of their position every year for the past 5 seasons. Please keep writing him off.

[Huttabito]

• Gary Ablett Jnr is the ONLY player that has been in the top echelon of their position every year for the past 5 seasons. Please keep writing him off.

No one is writing him off for average points. But the last 4 years he's played 15, 6, 14 and 14 games.

[quinny88]

• Gary Ablett Jnr is the ONLY player that has been in the top echelon of their position every year for the past 5 seasons. Please keep writing him off.

No one is writing him off for average points. But the last 4 years he's played 15, 6, 14 and 14 games.

And at best will only play 18 this year even if he doesn't get injured. There's no way the cats will risk him anytime he's even slightly sore or tired

[Peter]

Could be a good pick up later in season as Cats have a lot of home games in second half of season

[rebird]

Investing in these players I need them to play at least 16 games to be considered, more interested in 'overall' points, rather than average.