Top 2/5 rucks, 2018 Thread

[Hazza09]

If you started with Grundy then well done, but I wouldn't be rushing to get him in for those that don't have him

In the past 3 weeks he has had career high clearances, and the last two weeks disposals

3 monster scores in a row, but you can't chase past points and you don't buy at all time highs too

Surely most people still have guys like Fritsch, Holman etc on field, or other prems doing worse than Goldy? I'd be improving all of those before doing Goldy to Grundy

What about if you have Billings  >:(

[Holz]

If you started with Grundy then well done, but I wouldn't be rushing to get him in for those that don't have him

In the past 3 weeks he has had career high clearances, and the last two weeks disposals

3 monster scores in a row, but you can't chase past points and you don't buy at all time highs too

Surely most people still have guys like Fritsch, Holman etc on field, or other prems doing worse than Goldy? I'd be improving all of those before doing Goldy to Grundy

Too much logic RD,

its obviously Goldy will never be able to put up good numbers, he hasn't done that since round 2 of this year.

Grundy has gone 148 the last 2 weeks, he will average 145+ for the year got to trade him in, will rack up 30+ touches every week.

[Adamant]

Holz, you're the man in the know with Goldy, what's up with his form? Started well but has looked like a C grader the past fortnight.  Give me reason to believe.

I'm not Holz but I've watched Todd pretty closely over the years having had him in my side at some point basically every season up until now. The guy is just physically spent. He has the tools to play like Grundy or Stef Martin but he simply isn't working hard enough at stoppages and off the ball. He is an aerobic beast so fitness isn't an issue - he just can't be stuffed anymore.

The knock on Goldy has always been that he doesn't throw his weight around nearly enough, and now that he's lost his ability to run hard and link up for his 20-odd touches he is being exposed. I knew he was cooked last year and I'm honestly surprised the sob story about his off-field dramas sucked so many people in this year. The guy has shouldered the ruck load for the majority of his peak years, but he is no longer physically capable to the levels he once was. He's never getting back to his best.

[RaisyDaisy]

Holz, you're the man in the know with Goldy, what's up with his form? Started well but has looked like a C grader the past fortnight.  Give me reason to believe.

I'm not Holz but I've watched Todd pretty closely over the years having had him in my side at some point basically every season up until now. The guy is just physically spent. He has the tools to play like Grundy or Stef Martin but he simply isn't working hard enough at stoppages and off the ball. He is an aerobic beast so fitness isn't an issue - he just can't be stuffed anymore.

The knock on Goldy has always been that he doesn't throw his weight around nearly enough, and now that he's lost his ability to run hard and link up for his 20-odd touches he is being exposed. I knew he was cooked last year and I'm honestly surprised the sob story about his off-field dramas sucked so many people in this year. The guy has shouldered the ruck load for the majority of his peak years, but he is no longer physically capable to the levels he once was. He's never getting back to his best.

I watched the first quarter on Sat night while I was waiting for WCE to get under way, and I couldn't agree more with you

He looked slow, stagnant and had no hunger. He was moving around lethargically and didn't have any impact. I was quite surprised, and your comments above are a good reflection of what I saw, albeit just 30 mins of footy

I've got Goldy, but I also have 10 other players who are worse than him so I am not even thinking about what I can do with him for now as it's simply just a matter of holding him, unless he gets dropped

[ubeaut]

Yeah wouldn't be chasing after Grundy this week, has a career average of 69 v the Dons, highest score of 91 against them.

Past scores don't mean as much when a player is in breakout mode.
Every chance he smashes that 69 avg and 91 hs, especially if the Pies take their form vs Crows into this game.

[Holz]

Holz, you're the man in the know with Goldy, what's up with his form? Started well but has looked like a C grader the past fortnight.  Give me reason to believe.

I'm not Holz but I've watched Todd pretty closely over the years having had him in my side at some point basically every season up until now. The guy is just physically spent. He has the tools to play like Grundy or Stef Martin but he simply isn't working hard enough at stoppages and off the ball. He is an aerobic beast so fitness isn't an issue - he just can't be stuffed anymore.

The knock on Goldy has always been that he doesn't throw his weight around nearly enough, and now that he's lost his ability to run hard and link up for his 20-odd touches he is being exposed. I knew he was cooked last year and I'm honestly surprised the sob story about his off-field dramas sucked so many people in this year. The guy has shouldered the ruck load for the majority of his peak years, but he is no longer physically capable to the levels he once was. He's never getting back to his best.

Alot of this I agree with, but to a lesser extent. Personally Goldy has always looked (except 2015) to me that he just wanders around the ground, certainly wouldn't call him an electric ruck like Nic Nat. He never was a guy who racked up 20 touches consistently.

he is no chance of getting back to his absolute best which is 2015.  At the same time unless preuss comes in he is better then the last 2 weeks suggest, 114 in the first 2 and 66 in the last 2

Round Hitouts Goldy, Other North Players, Goldy % of Total HOs

1: 35 - 11 - 40%
2  38 - 13 - 54%
3  15 - 9 -  20%
4  31 -10 - 42%

I  ran the numbers for the other north players just to see if it was Daw affecting him and its not. Then i looked at the percentage of HO that goldy won and its been reasonable, last week his number was a little low as their was less HO available compared to say Grundy who got 40/87 at 46% so only marginally better but alot more Hit outs.

Week 3 was the really poor game where he got smashed but besides that picking up 40% of total hit outs isn't too bad, its not dominant but its not bad.

The issue this week was the touches

1: 14 with 8 contested
2 16 with 7 contested
3: 13 with 8 contested
4: 10 with 5 contested

Its alot of numbers but to me he had 1 terrible game in week 3 where he got killed in the Hit outs then a poor game this week where the total hitouts where a little low but he was his usual average at winning them but he didnt get enough of the ball.

There is enough evidence to show that he should be able to get 30+ hit outs and 14 or so touches most weeks. which make him a decent enough premo, unlikely to be top 2 but no major liability.

You just have to look at his 3 best seasons

2011 35 HO with 14 touches 113 average
2013 37 HO with 12 touches 113 average
2015 45 HO with 15 touches 128 average

2015 was an anomaly, statically he isn't much different to this 2011 and 2013 numbers.

so in 3 out of the 4 games he has got his usual amount of Hit outs and in 3 out of the 4 games he has got his usual amount of touches. its why he is running at 30 HO 13 touches and a average of 90.

30-35 HO and 14 touches for an average of 95-105 isnt too hard to imagine from here on out.

He has Mcevoy and Houston/Westhoff coming up, see how he goes against those two, if he keep up these numbers then i will drop him. If i was to guess id say he will put up about 35 HO then next 2 weeks and then get 13-15 touches and put up 95.

Just a reminder Goldy put up 83 in the first 5 rounds last year, then 99 from there on out.

Esentially, monitor with concern but no panic stations yet. If he goes sub 90 the next 2 weeks panic stations.

[_wato]

Yeah wouldn't be chasing after Grundy this week, has a career average of 69 v the Dons, highest score of 91 against them.

Past scores don't mean as much when a player is in breakout mode.
Every chance he smashes that 69 avg and 91 hs, especially if the Pies take their form vs Crows into this game.

Could be true but last year he brought in good form with a 135, 105, 113 heading into the Anzac Day game and scored 71.
I'd be slightly wary, but am expecting him to ton up. Just don't be expecting another 140+

[Holz]

here is the thing with Grundy, ok so we all know he is good but is he worth 611k.


For 10k less you can work on getting in Clayton Oliver.

For about 50k more in a week or 2 you can bring in Dangerfield.

For about 120k less you can bring in Zerett now

For about 100k less you can bring in Sloane in 2 weeks (when he is over his ankle injury)

For 70k less you can get Heeney or Buddy up front

For 80k less you can bring in Hurley down back

you can even pick up Sinclair for 110k less who is going 131 in the last 2 rounds.

[MontyJnr]

I've seen enough to believe Grundy will be a Top 2 ruck this year, especially now that Cox is playing predominately forward.

How do people think Collingwood will approach the next 2 games though?

With an incredibly short four-day break between games, will Grundy's ruck load be managed over the next 2 rounds at least?

[Samm79]

At least Goldy has put up ok numbers and played every game, imagine having Kreuzer!!

Back on Grundy from the minutes I’ve watched him play he looks physically dominant. He threw Sauce around like a rag doll in some contests, grabbed the pill and just launched it forward. He’s coming into his prime, wouldn’t be surprised if he averaged 120 from here on in. I’m jumping on, or potentially Sinclair who is fully fit for the first time in years and will continue to be the unopposed number 1 ruck all year. The $115k saving is appealing too

[frenzy]

A wonderful read people, thank you

[HoleMeal]

A wonderful read people, thank you

^THIS

Cheers

[ubeaut]

here is the thing with Grundy, ok so we all know he is good but is he worth 611k.


For 10k less you can work on getting in Clayton Oliver.

For about 50k more in a week or 2 you can bring in Dangerfield.

For about 120k less you can bring in Zerett now

For about 100k less you can bring in Sloane in 2 weeks (when he is over his ankle injury)

For 70k less you can get Heeney or Buddy up front

For 80k less you can bring in Hurley down back

you can even pick up Sinclair for 110k less who is going 131 in the last 2 rounds.

All good points Holz. I guess it depends on each teams balance/priorities/weaknesses, who they have at R2 now and if the money can be better spent elsewhere or not.

I have Goldy and if he keeps throwing up 70s 80s even 90 then 100k would be well spent, as I think Grundy will avg 115 - 120.
But I also have Hibberd and Billings, so maybe there's more important moves to be made.

As for.610 k being worth it, I think he will outscore Heeney,Buddy,Merrett,Hurley,Sinclair and Sloane.
From the players u mentioned only Danger and Oliver will outscore him.
A breakout ruck entering his prime, playing as an extra midfielder with a decent mid group around him is SC Gold.

[Bully]

here is the thing with Grundy, ok so we all know he is good but is he worth 611k.


For 10k less you can work on getting in Clayton Oliver.

For about 50k more in a week or 2 you can bring in Dangerfield.

For about 120k less you can bring in Zerett now

For about 100k less you can bring in Sloane in 2 weeks (when he is over his ankle injury)

For 70k less you can get Heeney or Buddy up front

For 80k less you can bring in Hurley down back

you can even pick up Sinclair for 110k less who is going 131 in the last 2 rounds.

All good points Holz. I guess it depends on each teams balance/priorities/weaknesses, who they have at R2 now and if the money can be better spent elsewhere or not.

I have Goldy and if he keeps throwing up 70s 80s even 90 then 100k would be well spent, as I think Grundy will avg 115 - 120.
But I also have Hibberd and Billings, so maybe there's more important moves to be made.

As for.610 k being worth it, I think he will outscore Heeney,Buddy,Merrett,Hurley,Sinclair and Sloane.
From the players u mentioned only Danger and Oliver will outscore him.
A breakout ruck entering his prime, playing as an extra midfielder with a decent mid group around him is SC Gold.

Yep, every year there's a standout & after 4 games the choice appears to be clear. One can say you should never pay top dollar but we went through this scenario with Docherty last year & many people struggled to get him in. Both Grundy & Dusty are averaging about the same yet Grundy is 50k cheaper & is 30 points clear of his nearest rival. With Yeo & Merrett looking like decent pick-ups next week there will need to be some hard choices made.

[tkringle]

To throw another name in, what about Nic Nat?

Tracking exceptionally well given his time on ground, which will increase over the next few rounds.. Straight swap for Goldy at the moment