Top 2/5 rucks, 2018 Thread

[meow meow]

What's the advantage? You get to play an extra premo mid?

Premo ruck + JOM/Armo vs Premo mid + Lycett

Won't be that huge if it pays off. Should be break even with everyone else.

[Bully]

Time for some Lycett love I think. Here's my rundown on the situation:


- There's no other premium ruck that sticks out. Ryder with the bye; Martin, Grundy and Goldstein all with their backups playing in the same team; Jacobs just boring; and the others I don't think can get better than what they were last season (Smith, Belly, Nank).
- Lycett in 2016 played 20 games and averaged 83.1. In the first 10 rounds of that season he scored five tons. He had double digit hitouts each match, he scored a goal every match from Rd 3-10. And in this time he was playing 2nd Ruck to Nic Nat, who scored amazingly until his injury.
- He's $277k, and is best 22.
- If Darcy Cameron is nailed then you have cover if he gets injured/scores bad for a week or two. Remember the goal is for him to make some cash while you work out which ruck is the best to pair him with. He doesn't need to go 90+, you just want something that resembles a good rookie score.

I look at that and go geez this is a very very good pick for R2 and even playing behind Nic Nat I think he can score very well. He's priced at an average of 50, so if he goes 75-80 he's making money (Looking at going above $400k if he does that). The rucks are always viewed as different to the other positions and that we should always pick 2 set and forget. Ask yourself why that's the case, it certainly doesn't have to be, why not get the cheap guy who has shown he can score at above his price, no one else is putting their hand up for R2.


There's a downside to every player in this price range, and Lycett's is from 2015:
- 64, 96, 48, 60 injured Rds 1 to 4. You start a $277k guy and that happens, you are in big trouble if there's no playing R3.
- He scored 2 against GWS in Rd 21 2016. He played the full game. Enough said.
- 1, 2, 7, 12, 6, 20, 1 are his matches played since entering the league. How can you be confident he will last to the byes?


My wrap up? No one sticks out, and he's currently in my side. It's a huge risk to pick him but if he pays off wowee it'll be huge.

Goldy + Armitage / O'Meara vs Lycett + Cripps / Parker = very little advantage if any

[PowerBug]

What's the advantage? You get to play an extra premo mid?

Premo ruck + JOM/Armo vs Premo mid + Lycett

Won't be that huge if it pays off. Should be break even with everyone else.

The premium you start is more secure. Which is where this whole thing starts from.

Goldy + Armitage / O'Meara vs Lycett + Cripps / Parker = very little advantage if any

If you think Goldy is a good pick then sure go for it, I don't see it that way because of Preuss being in the side. And who says it's a Cripps/Parker, why can't it be a Hibberd, Greene or Billings? Guys that are more likely to be top scoring for their positions :)

[Bully]

What's the advantage? You get to play an extra premo mid?

Premo ruck + JOM/Armo vs Premo mid + Lycett

Won't be that huge if it pays off. Should be break even with everyone else.

The premium you start is more secure. Which is where this whole thing starts from.

Goldy + Armitage / O'Meara vs Lycett + Cripps / Parker = very little advantage if any

If you think Goldy is a good pick then sure go for it, I don't see it that way because of Preuss being in the side. And who says it's a Cripps/Parker, why can't it be a Hibberd, Greene or Billings? Guys that are more likely to be top scoring for their positions :)

And if he gets dropped you burn 2 trades. He's been in the system 8 years & has produced 50 so-so games. One half-decent season doesn't maketh the man.

[ubeaut]

Time for some Lycett love I think. Here's my rundown on the situation:


- There's no other premium ruck that sticks out. Ryder with the bye; Martin, Grundy and Goldstein all with their backups playing in the same team; Jacobs just boring; and the others I don't think can get better than what they were last season (Smith, Belly, Nank).
- Lycett in 2016 played 20 games and averaged 83.1. In the first 10 rounds of that season he scored five tons. He had double digit hitouts each match, he scored a goal every match from Rd 3-10. And in this time he was playing 2nd Ruck to Nic Nat, who scored amazingly until his injury.
- He's $277k, and is best 22.
- If Darcy Cameron is nailed then you have cover if he gets injured/scores bad for a week or two. Remember the goal is for him to make some cash while you work out which ruck is the best to pair him with. He doesn't need to go 90+, you just want something that resembles a good rookie score.

I look at that and go geez this is a very very good pick for R2 and even playing behind Nic Nat I think he can score very well. He's priced at an average of 50, so if he goes 75-80 he's making money (Looking at going above $400k if he does that). The rucks are always viewed as different to the other positions and that we should always pick 2 set and forget. Ask yourself why that's the case, it certainly doesn't have to be, why not get the cheap guy who has shown he can score at above his price, no one else is putting their hand up for R2.


There's a downside to every player in this price range, and Lycett's is from 2015:
- 64, 96, 48, 60 injured Rds 1 to 4. You start a $277k guy and that happens, you are in big trouble if there's no playing R3.
- He scored 2 against GWS in Rd 21 2016. He played the full game. Enough said.
- 1, 2, 7, 12, 6, 20, 1 are his matches played since entering the league. How can you be confident he will last to the byes?


My wrap up? No one sticks out, and he's currently in my side. It's a huge risk to pick him but if he pays off wowee it'll be huge.

I agree that rucks are viewed differently, that people get fixated on set and forget,and in theory u can play a midpricer/rookie anywhere if they are making Money.
I guess the main reason against for me is apart from possibly Cameron or going Cox/English F4/R3 ( neither of which are that appealing) there is no cover and only one bench spot. Add to that the fact that in other positions there are likely to be rookies u missed u can trade to if it flops while in ruck there is little chance of that. If Lycett goes down/gets dropped the chances are u have to lose a premo elsewhere and burn two trades to fix it.
I was initially very keen on Lyce but am slowly coming to the conclusion that the risk may outweigh reward.
Good write up tho mate and I haven't totally rules him out either!

[Toga]

For those considering starting Goldy... I assume that's based on Scott saying that there will be only one ruck in the R1 side?

What happens if that only lasts a few weeks and Preuss comes into the side. Do you have a Plan B (fallback trade)? Or do you ride it out?

Just interested to hear what people are planning because it sounds like he's fairly popular :)

[Bully]

For those considering starting Goldy... I assume that's based on Scott saying that there will be only one ruck in the R1 side?

What happens if that only lasts a few weeks and Preuss comes into the side. Do you have a Plan B (fallback trade)? Or do you ride it out?

Just interested to hear what people are planning because it sounds like he's fairly popular :)

Scott is on record as saying Goldy will be the man if he produces A grade football which he is more than capable of. If his form isn't up to scratch then a sideways trade to the best performing ruck.

[LordSneeze]

My rucks have been locked as Goldy & Gawn all preseason. The only alternative to Goldy is Ryder for me and that's if I believe I will be able to cover his bye. Cannot see him not being a top 2 ruck.

[frenzy]

Preuss is a non issue, simple. He may get a few games later in the year when Brad Scott switches to development mode once Norf stitches up the wooden spoon. But Majak Daw is as bigger problem to Goldy because he's a useless FWD and useless DEF.

Goldy's got his shower back in order off the field and big tons are ominous.

[crowls]

My rucks have been locked as Goldy & Gawn all preseason. The only alternative to Goldy is Ryder for me and that's if I believe I will be able to cover his bye. Cannot see him not being a top 2 ruck.

started before xmas as jacob/gawn but been goldy/gawn for a few months now.    very comfotrable with the decision.   just hope they both make it to rnd 11.    then ryder or stef if they fall over.

[Holz]

What's the advantage? You get to play an extra premo mid?

Premo ruck + JOM/Armo vs Premo mid + Lycett

Won't be that huge if it pays off. Should be break even with everyone else.

The premium you start is more secure. Which is where this whole thing starts from.

The premium mid is safer then the premium ruck no doubt.

however the big thing is JOM v Lycett and the thing that most influences that is bench and trade options.

If JOM underpeforms then you have 3 guys on the bench and possibly even a loop hole scenario. The bigger thing is if JOM disappoints then you can trade him down to any rookie you missed or a mid pricer that you missed.

If lycett pumps out sub optimal scores then what can you do? Worse if he misses a week what do you do? you have no cover and you have no easy option to sideways him too. This is the whole reason you go set and forget.

Id back Goldy + JOM into averaging 180 reasonably comfortable. Realistically what can you expect from Lycett, if he is going say 70  which i think is fair enough then you need to find a 110 mid at 566k. Which is certainly possible but that what you need to break even.

To make the risk worth it you i think there needs to be upside of +10 over the safer combo so you would need lycett to go 80 and find a 110 mid then hope that Goldy + JOM dont go more then 180. Its very likely that they could go 190-200.

Premo Ruck + JOM/Armitage easy in my books of Lycett and a Good Premo Mid.

If it was Lycett + Dmart v Goldy JOM a whole other story but the difference in price of Lycett and JOM isnt that great.

When you take a risk make sure you have a exit plan.

[batt]

Starting Sandi is starting to get me very interested...

As mentioned I'm still very stuck on a second ruck I want and Goldy/Stef/Kreuzer/Ryder have all been there at some stage. But if you look at his first 5 opponents (PA, Dons, GC, Giants, Dogs) not to mention a pretty soft draw up until Rd 10 (where NN/Lycett, Nank, Longer, Sinclair follow Rd 5), the man giant could average 110 before restings occur in latter part of the year and they transition to Darcy dependent on their wins/losses.

Obvs injury is a massive concern but he looks ripped af and healthy. Plenty to like about a score of 110 from 24 hitouts and 58% game time in JLT (even to mention he played a preseason game, wtf)

I must admit, the big man is starting to grab my attention as well..

Looked in ripping shape yesterday, and played both JLT games which wouldn't have happened for years. With that draw to start the year with, I reckon he could be an awesome POD to start the season off. If he gets rested later, potentially look to trade then, but the scoring potential is definitely there.

I've had Goldy most of the preseason alongside Gawn, but the Preuss factor makes me nervous.. They won't play in the same team, but there's a chance Scotty could switch them in and out during the season.

I had him in my team after Sunday.  Very enticing.  I'd have to trade him at his bye because I already have 6 R14 bye premos.

But then I thought about age decline, and tried to think of a ruck who has declined well.  Cox averaged 90 in his last season a few years ago.  And guess what?  Sandi's the same age.  I think it's impressive that he's still playing but I find it hard to believe a body with that many miles on it will be worth taking a bet on.

So instead I managed to re-find the cash for Kruez and be done with it.  If NicNat lines up I'll switch to him and use the additional funds elsewhere.

[Gavdroid]

What's the advantage? You get to play an extra premo mid?

Premo ruck + JOM/Armo vs Premo mid + Lycett

Won't be that huge if it pays off. Should be break even with everyone else.

The premium you start is more secure. Which is where this whole thing starts from.

The premium mid is safer then the premium ruck no doubt.

however the big thing is JOM v Lycett and the thing that most influences that is bench and trade options.

If JOM underpeforms then you have 3 guys on the bench and possibly even a loop hole scenario. The bigger thing is if JOM disappoints then you can trade him down to any rookie you missed or a mid pricer that you missed.

If lycett pumps out sub optimal scores then what can you do? Worse if he misses a week what do you do? you have no cover and you have no easy option to sideways him too. This is the whole reason you go set and forget.

Id back Goldy + JOM into averaging 180 reasonably comfortable. Realistically what can you expect from Lycett, if he is going say 70  which i think is fair enough then you need to find a 110 mid at 566k. Which is certainly possible but that what you need to break even.

To make the risk worth it you i think there needs to be upside of +10 over the safer combo so you would need lycett to go 80 and find a 110 mid then hope that Goldy + JOM dont go more then 180. Its very likely that they could go 190-200.

Premo Ruck + JOM/Armitage easy in my books of Lycett and a Good Premo Mid.

If it was Lycett + Dmart v Goldy JOM a whole other story but the difference in price of Lycett and JOM isnt that great.

When you take a risk make sure you have a exit plan.

What if it were say Lycett + Billings v Goldy + Bundy?

[Holz]

What's the advantage? You get to play an extra premo mid?

Premo ruck + JOM/Armo vs Premo mid + Lycett

Won't be that huge if it pays off. Should be break even with everyone else.

The premium you start is more secure. Which is where this whole thing starts from.

The premium mid is safer then the premium ruck no doubt.

however the big thing is JOM v Lycett and the thing that most influences that is bench and trade options.

If JOM underpeforms then you have 3 guys on the bench and possibly even a loop hole scenario. The bigger thing is if JOM disappoints then you can trade him down to any rookie you missed or a mid pricer that you missed.

If lycett pumps out sub optimal scores then what can you do? Worse if he misses a week what do you do? you have no cover and you have no easy option to sideways him too. This is the whole reason you go set and forget.

Id back Goldy + JOM into averaging 180 reasonably comfortable. Realistically what can you expect from Lycett, if he is going say 70  which i think is fair enough then you need to find a 110 mid at 566k. Which is certainly possible but that what you need to break even.

To make the risk worth it you i think there needs to be upside of +10 over the safer combo so you would need lycett to go 80 and find a 110 mid then hope that Goldy + JOM dont go more then 180. Its very likely that they could go 190-200.

Premo Ruck + JOM/Armitage easy in my books of Lycett and a Good Premo Mid.

If it was Lycett + Dmart v Goldy JOM a whole other story but the difference in price of Lycett and JOM isnt that great.

When you take a risk make sure you have a exit plan.

What if it were say Lycett + Billings v Goldy + Bundy?

then id favour the premo ruck even more.

because you have the same thing where bundy is covered and if he fails you can pick any forward rookie. When it comes to Billings v Goldy i feel they offer the same reward and both can be switched for a premo if required.

[ubeaut]

There may be bugger all fwd rookies tho. Bundy may become a liability if he is F4 and only 4 rookies total get named 2 or 3 of which are any good. Makes it hard to downgrade Bundy then. Especially if Rayner/ Stephenson flop or get dropped. Rayner may have safer JS but I have huge doubts on scoring ability with poor tank. Stephenson could lose out to DeGoey early on.