Players to Watch

[crowls]

I have been extracting SC season summary data from TooSerious website for players of interest to me.
Brief comments are made about where they fit in my plans for 2018 and why.


I use a simple system of EOY target points.  Setting end of year target points makes it simple to calculate what a player must score. whereas a notional target of top 5 or top 10 does not help in separating players.


Def and Fwd Keepers require 2000+ points to generate an effective result.  (Def 2017-6 2016-7 2015-6 players) (Fwds 2017-6 2016-10 2015-13)
This requires

   
• 22 games at 91
• 21 games at 95
• 20 games at 100

Mid Prems   3 starters >2400, 2-3 starters >2300
>2300 2017-13 players 2016-14 players, 2015-11 players
>2400 2017-7 players 2016-8 players, 2015-5 players


2300 avg requirements
22 games at 104
21 games at 109
20 games at 115

2400 avg requirements
22 games at 109
21 games at 114
20 games at 120


Rucks >2000
2017-5 2016-4 2015-7
Also in two of those years there was a 700 and 600 point difference between highest scoring ruck and 2000 points.  this highlights how important it is to having the top scoring ruck from the start of season.


Given these parameters when I start looking at players it becomes a question of 1. are they capable of averaging the minimum requirement for their SC position.  If so how likely are they to play the required number of games.      Toby Greene is a good example of a player capable of getting the scores but not enough games. It is no good having one without the other.


Here is the link to my worksheet for my watchlist.  Or just go to tooserious and do the searches.


For trades the goal is to identify players who are under their expected avg for EOY total and who therefore outscore their expected average for the rest of the year.   Not only can you buy them cheap but then they overperform even for your expected eoy target.   


DEF
Michael Hurly - No, overpriced for history, 1 season >2000 2 seasons >94 average.  can pick up mid year
Rory Laird - Yes will get >2000 if gets 21 games or more
Kade Simpson - yes 8 of 12 seasons >2000 points, rarely misses games, docherty missing
Zak Jones - No - improving but proven, expect another year to show improvement of 5-8 points
Callum Mills - Risky should improve 5-10 points to mid 80's but needs 15 point improve for keeper
Nicholas Newman - No needs improvement of 9 points and full season.  Consider for upgrade
MID
Marcus Bontempelli - yes 2 >2300  still improving, rarely misses games
Zac Merrett - yes 2 >2300  still improving, rarely misses games
Josh Kelly - maybe 1 season > 2400 avg>110 lots of upside has age and improvement profile to keep going
Matt Crouch - maybe 1 season > 2400 avg>110 lots of upside has age and improvement profile to keep going
Lachie Neale - yes 3 seasons >2300 rarely misses games, do not overpay
Nat Fyfe - Maybe 4 seasons mid 2200 as rarely gets 22 games,  Will be more responsible as Captain.  Possible upgrade.  does have high Ceiling so consider using trade if injured and start him
Tom Mitchell - Yes >2600 last season, 2 years of no missed games, will be top 5 overall
Patrick Cripps - Maybe - not yet proven, likely to keep improving, if plays 22 will be good result
Stephen Coniglio - Maybe - one season over 2200 showing consistent improvement in AVG until last year. Lacks durability capable of scoring if gets full season
FWD (>2000 Fwds 2017-6 2016-10 2015-13)
Getting more difficult to find fwds who can achieve the 2000+ EOY target.
Toby Greene - No for start, maybe mid season upgrade, avg ok, missing games is problem
Tom Papley - has good profile and may improve again this year.  Wait until improvement shown and role clarified
Devon Smith - NO never achieve targets and unless gets full time mid role at Ess not likely to improve
Toby McLean - Maybe - good growth profile yet to play a full season. needs to improve 5-9 pts per game
tom Lynch (GCS) - No typical KPF inconsistent has one season of >2000,  review and mid season.
JJK - Upgrade mid season - wait for price drop and upgrade at that time, Will get 2000 points if plays 22 games
Lance Franklin - Maybe - two full seasons and 2 >2000 results.  Best of KPF.  upgrade after a price drop
Michael Barlow- Yes- proven 2000+ scorer when in mids,  has injury risk but worth it for starting price and possible top 5 fwd


This will be living document that I will update as time permits.    Hope it helps others.  Helped me clarify my thoughts whilst pulling it together.

[Peter]

Really good analysis Crowls - how do you allow for different roles eg McLean going into the midfield, Barlow getting stuck as a forward with Lyon etc?

[crowls]

Really good analysis Crowls - how do you allow for different roles eg McLean going into the midfield, Barlow getting stuck as a forward with Lyon etc?

mclean getting mid time is part of assessment and why he may increase 10pts on last year.   gcs mids are short on inside mids and unlikely barlow will be caught up fwd.  dew is not stupid and saw what happened when lyon did this at freo.   for barlow it is play in mids or not at all.

[Peter]

Agree, especially when their mids are all young blokes now

[igotworms]

Great write up Crowls! Thanks for putting in the effort. Definitely a great way to differentiate and sort the wheat from the chaff!
M.Crouch, Cripps, Fyfe, Titch & Coniglio all in my starting mids at this point in time. Really want to find a way to bring in Bont as well, but will probably have to drop one of the above for that to happen. Only really like Laird in defense and Barlow in the forwards. Keeping my eye on Papley and his role in the JLT!! Great work, thanks mate.

[Grazz]

Nice work mate.
I'm wondering if Salem could up his average enough to be a consideration now Lever is there taking intercept marks handing it
off to Salem as the rebounding defender or is it just wishful thinking, not sure.  :-\

[Peter]

Salem’s role will be interesting considering they have Hibberd and Brayshaw now rolling back there. Watch the JLT

[Grazz]

Salem’s role will be interesting considering they have Hibberd and Brayshaw now rolling back there. Watch the JLT

Will do.  ;)

[crowls]

Salem’s role will be interesting considering they have Hibberd and Brayshaw now rolling back there. Watch the JLT

Will do.  ;)

Is Salem capable of moving into the mids or on ball role?   

[Peter]

Lewis was tipped to go to HB, so someone has to go to mids - any Demons supporters?

[Grufflez]

Lewis was tipped to go to HB, so someone has to go to mids - any Demons supporters?

Brayshaw in a helmet?

[Peter]

Yep, so Salem sits at HB with 75 point average - not for me