The 450-500k Mids

[enzedder]

At this early stage I don't think you can go past Coniglio but if something happens to put me off one of my preferred midfielders or if I need someone in his price range Luke Dunstan is just about next on the list.

The ones around his price range in SC that I like are...
Dunstan $485,200 M
Walters $478,300 M/F
Barlow $462,700 M/F
Coniglio $452,400 M

Both Barlow and Walters are coming off injuries. With DPP status and massive SC ceilings and abilities to get a run happening over prolonged weeks they may great cover swing options with DPP rookies. With strong pre seasons behind them they will be more popular if named R1. Barlow is going well...Dew said you wouldn't know he'd broken his leg based on how he is currently.
Walters is also training well.
http://www.fremantlefc.com.au/news/2017-12-11/walters

Luke Dunstan was recruited from Woodville - West Torrens in the 2013 National Draft with the #18 pick. Cripps FWIW was taken with #13 in the same draft with Billings, Bont and Kelly a bit higher again. These boys are coming into their prime and with 69 games under his belt, I think this is going to be the year Dunstan bursts on to the scene. He was touted as a future captain when he was drafted and after finishing 2017 with: 140, 95, 88, 119 and 106 he should be full of confidence heading into this year.
His SC averages since debuting in 2014 have been: 75, 70, 72 and 88 last year.
He has gone 30+ in possessions only twice in his 69 game career, but they were his last two games. He has arrived and he is setting new PBs in training this pre season. If this has you interested then you might want to look at this too...
http://www.saints.com.au/news/2017-12-08/how-dunstan-turned-his-season-around

As for Coniglio you just need to look at his SC scores in 2016 when he averaged 106. 14games @ 100+, 3 90s, 3 80s, 2 60s. This year he's discounted at 82 pts with a 2017 ave of 91 from 10 games and at $452k that's too good for me to overlook. Finished last year with 132 and 126 in GWS winning finals too. I'll forgive him his 59 PF game v Richmond.

At the moment I'm all over Coniglio but the others could be in my team come R1.

[shaker]

Coniglio is the only one I would consider out of those 4 , if it come down to it I would rather play a rookie or cheapie than any of the other 3 and upgrade somewhere else in my team

[SilverLion]

Coniglio is in my side currently, presents great value as a M5/M6 to start the year. Only other guy I'd consider currently is Barlow (as a Forward), will have to monitor him through the pre-season though as he is coming off a horrific injury.

[Money Shot]

Neither of Coniglio and Dunstan will be keepers and at that price you would want them to be. I can almost guarantee you that they will average around the 105 mark and you will keep them all year when really you want to finish the season with 110+ players in your midfield.

Walters and Barlow on the other hand are chances of being top 6-8 forwards come seasons end and go 95+ which would be great for your final forwards. Walters killed it in the last half of the season playing with the mids and Barlow playing in the midfield could go 100+. I like them both... alot.

[Holz]

This is the price range i would avoid like the plague in the midfield.

Id take these punts in defense or up forward so barlow and walters are worth a look.

but when you have Ahh Chee, Lids, Christenson, Bennell all much cheaper not sure i would look at any of them.

[LordSneeze]

Im with Holz on this one. Avoid this price range like the plague

If they pull out at 105 average your holding a player who is scoring less than most other prem mids, it is just as likey they average 95 and you get put in the very difficult position of hold or fold ala Hanners last year.

All the hype for Coniglio is due to him having scored 100's and being discounted. He is not consistent with 8 under 100 in 2016 and is coming off an injury, id much prefer to take a risk in the fwd or defence when the requirement for Prems are much less.
If Kelly had left then I would likely be considering it very highly, but GWS have a lot of point scorers, that they are very rarely consistent scorers.

[enzedder]

Im with Holz on this one. Avoid this price range like the plague

If they pull out at 105 average your holding a player who is scoring less than most other prem mids, it is just as likey they average 95 and you get put in the very difficult position of hold or fold ala Hanners last year.

All the hype for Coniglio is due to him having scored 100's and being discounted. He is not consistent with 8 under 100 in 2016 and is coming off an injury, id much prefer to take a risk in the fwd or defence when the requirement for Prems are much less.
If Kelly had left then I would likely be considering it very highly, but GWS have a lot of point scorers, that they are very rarely consistent scorers.

5 of Coniglio's 100+s in 2016 were 120+ as have been 2 of his last 3 games. Consistency doesn't matter so much if you have them for the journey. So long as the other mids are all firing top selections a 105 averaging mid selection is good enough. Last year's winner had Beams 101.4, Bont 105.1, Murphy 108.2 and Zorko 110.8. Oh and Murphy started at 432k. Kudos to anyone that picked him R1... I didn't. Based on the aforementioned good luck having 8 mids that all go 115+
I think Coniglio is worth a punt and if he fails in R1 and 2 then maybe he becomes a correctional trade but I seriously doubt he is going to fall off the map. He knows how to find the pill and score.

This is the price range i would avoid like the plague in the midfield.

Id take these punts in defense or up forward so barlow and walters are worth a look.

but when you have Ahh Chee, Lids, Christenson, Bennell all much cheaper not sure i would look at any of them.

If I took Barlow and Walters it would be as fwds. My OP alluded to this when I stated their DPP status may help with swing coverage. Agree that they may not be needed with Christensen, Bennell and co other cheap options to keep an eye on.

Neither of Coniglio and Dunstan will be keepers and at that price you would want them to be. I can almost guarantee you that they will average around the 105 mark and you will keep them all year when really you want to finish the season with 110+ players in your midfield.

Walters and Barlow on the other hand are chances of being top 6-8 forwards come seasons end and go 95+ which would be great for your final forwards. Walters killed it in the last half of the season playing with the mids and Barlow playing in the midfield could go 100+. I like them both... alot.

Disagree that Coniglio wouldn't be a keeper. If he was averaging a tick over 100 that'd do me as M8 so long as my other picks were firing. Starting with Danger, Dusty, Titch, Fyfe and Cripps/Beams I reckon I'd be well on my to accomplish a solid mid line where Coniglio's 70-130s would be plenty good enough.
I imagine 452k will be his season low price too so there's value for money there. He's not going to get much cheaper. I could start a Kelly/ Oliver type over him by rejigging somewhere but chances are their 600+k price tag won't be close their season low.
As for your Walters and Barlow calls....that'swhat I'm talking about.  :)

[Money Shot]

You Raise good points Enzedder.

Dunstan is a definite no for me even if he averages 200 in the JLT. Coniglio I have considered as he could easily averages 105-110 which as you said is more than enough for a M8 keeper. I'm not going to bring him in at the cost of another one of my premiums however. If i finsish my side and I have enough money to turn a Rayner/LDU type into him then I will but he is not a necessity in my eyes.

Danger, Mitchell, Dusty, Kelly, Fyfe, Merrett, Bont, Cripps, Pendles, Selwood, Crouch, Sloane and plenty of others will all outscore him and I would rather find the extra 100-150k too get those players in if I can.

[enzedder]

You Raise good points Enzedder.

Dunstan is a definite no for me even if he averages 200 in the JLT. Coniglio I have considered as he could easily averages 105-110 which as you said is more than enough for a M8 keeper. I'm not going to bring him in at the cost of another one of my premiums however. If i finsish my side and I have enough money to turn a Rayner/LDU type into him then I will but he is not a necessity in my eyes.

Danger, Mitchell, Dusty, Kelly, Fyfe, Merrett, Bont, Cripps, Pendles, Selwood, Crouch, Sloane and plenty of others will all outscore him and I would rather find the extra 100-150k too get those players in if I can.

Given an even playing field where they all play the same or nearly the same number of games over the season I reckon you’re right.
Is it worth starting Coniglio at his cheaper price if you can't afford that extra bit for one of the above and when prices meet or suit do the sideways trade? Could he be a quick stepping stone to a fallen super premo?

[shaker]

If I can afford Coniglio at M6 he is in if he lines up R1 , this year his season was ruined by injury and he missed a very large chunk of the year with a ankle the year before he was heading in the premo direction but he is the only one out of the 4 mentioned above

[crowls]

This is the price range i would avoid like the plague in the midfield.

Id take these punts in defense or up forward so barlow and walters are worth a look.

but when you have Ahh Chee, Lids, Christenson, Bennell all much cheaper not sure i would look at any of them.

good write up NZ but Holz sums it up well.   Great for you if Dunstan continues to step up and gets to 110+ but assuming he continues to improve he will be a 105-110 option.    This does not make him a bad pick, though not as much value as can be achieved with a Barlow in the fwds.  Sometimes it is not the upside we need to focus on but the potential risk involved if things don't work out.  What do you see is Dunstan's floor compared to others.   That is your downside risk and if only a point or two difference on the upside then taking the player with less downside is the better choice.

[quinny88]

Only one I'm strongly considering is Barlow in the forward line.
They need experience in the midfield and we know he scores well when he plays there. I expect 100 from him and to be one of the top fwds

[Peter]

So do you intend carrying Barlow through R10 or pick him up after that?

[crowls]

So do you intend carrying Barlow through R10 or pick him up after that?

start him and only gcs or port player until after the byes.  being mid/fwd should have a decent rookie for cover.

[SilverLion]

So do you intend carrying Barlow through R10 or pick him up after that?

start him and only gcs or port player until after the byes.  being mid/fwd should have a decent rookie for cover.

Fair. Will monitor him in the JLT though before deciding for certain. At his price, he may be too good to pass up.