SilverLions 2018

[SilverLion]

Witherden I just can't see the point in starting at his price as I don't think he will average 100, and as good as he looks there isn't any upside at his price

Can someone explain what exactly this means?

Like which defenders this year do people expect to average 100+? And with the defender options kinda wide open, what “upside” are our picks supposed to have? Aren’t we all just picking select defenders because we think they’ll be the top 6 or 10 or whatever the arbitrary number is? What does starting price actually have to do with it other than being able to afford any one player?

Guys like Hurley, Yeo, Hibberd and Laird would be the top choices to go 100+

Then the next tier down like Howe, Houli, Simmo etc have proven for years that they are reliable 90+ defenders

The concern surrounding Witherden is that he is simply not proven, and at his price why take the risk when you can get someone else who is guaranteed

He is by no way a bad pick. I just don't see the benefit of taking the risk by starting him over someone more proven. Best case scenario he averages 90-95 and you've saved maybe 30-40k so that's not enough of a reward for me as the risk of him averaging high 80's and not being Top 6-10 has much more of an impact than the 30-40k saved

I'll take Hanley and the 50k every day of the week

Yeah understand that. But if everyone's sides only had proven players in them, no-one would have picked players like Oliver last year ;)

[RaisyDaisy]

I'm curious though, what makes you think Libba has more upside than Prestia or Coniglio?

Just gut feel really

Libba was all over the place last year, but by all reports he has rediscovered his hunger and is having a great preseason

Just the fact that when he is switched on he's a tackling and contested possession machine

That being said, I'd still feel somewhat uneasy picking any one of those 3 to be honest

I just feel more comfortable taking risks in the def and fwd. I like to start bonafide no question marks mids

Fair enough. Conliglio did average 106 in 2016 prior to last year's injury interrupted season, I can see him returning to around that level which would be good enough for 450k :)

I've just put Coniglio into my side haha

As per my post in the Cripps thread, I've decided to downgrade him and it will be either Conigs or Libba

[GoLions]

Witherden I just can't see the point in starting at his price as I don't think he will average 100, and as good as he looks there isn't any upside at his price

Can someone explain what exactly this means?

Like which defenders this year do people expect to average 100+? And with the defender options kinda wide open, what “upside” are our picks supposed to have? Aren’t we all just picking select defenders because we think they’ll be the top 6 or 10 or whatever the arbitrary number is? What does starting price actually have to do with it other than being able to afford any one player?

Guys like Hurley, Yeo, Hibberd and Laird would be the top choices to go 100+

Then the next tier down like Howe, Houli, Simmo etc have proven for years that they are reliable 90+ defenders

The concern surrounding Witherden is that he is simply not proven, and at his price why take the risk when you can get someone else who is guaranteed

He is by no way a bad pick. I just don't see the benefit of taking the risk by starting him over someone more proven. Best case scenario he averages 90-95 and you've saved maybe 30-40k so that's not enough of a reward for me as the risk of him averaging high 80's and not being Top 6-10 has much more of an impact than the 30-40k saved

I'll take Hanley and the 50k every day of the week

I think Laird should go 100+, and tbh I don't see any other defenders hitting that this year. Yes Hurley did last season, but I (and I think most other people on FF) are expecting that to drop this year, so he can be picked up cheaper. Yeo was another who went 100+ in 2017, but after R13 he had only one score over 100 in his last 11 games, which is a huge concern. Would expect to pick him up cheaper as well. Hibberd I think would probably be the next closest after Laird, and have him in my side atm, but still not expecting a triple figures average from him.

So with WitherGOAT, a lot are expecting him to increase his average into the 90s, which means you'll get more than what you paid for him. And anything in the 90s will be more than good enough for D6. There is obviously that risk that he doesn't take that next step this year (hence why he isn't in my side atm), but if he averages 90-95, I don't think anyone will be unhappy with picking him. And the 80-90k they'd save by picking WitherGOAT over Hurley or Laird, they can use to make a decent upgrade in the mids or something, if they currently had a speculative pick there (I could start Dusty in the mids for example if I started Withers in defence). And then if you can pick up Hurley or Yeo for 500k or less, that's another big win for your team as well.

Of course, a lot of it depends on how many players you think can go 100+, how much you think Withers will improve this year (if at all), etc. And also, if you think there will be much of a difference between the 5-20 ranked defenders (or thereabouts). I wouldn't be surprised if we just had the 4 or so guys averaging over 95, and then a heap in that 90-95 range.

I also think Hanley will score poo.

[RaisyDaisy]

Well said Davos

Like I said I don't think Witherden is a bad pick at all, but I just prefer others who are more proven, just a personal choice and nothing more

I agree that anything 90+ is good enough this year, and that we could have zero defenders averaging 100+ or maybe only 1-3

[Nige]

What Dave said is more or less the point I was trying to make (and what I was gonna reply with until he basically covered it).

I think Laird's just about the only guarantee for 100+ and even then, who knows? I rather save the cash on guys like Witherden and McGrath who I think are good enough to at least go 90 and be not far off the Hibberd and Yeo types, if at all.

And obviously, that cash saved there allows me to use it elsewhere.

But yeah, it's all ultimately a case of different strokes for different folks haha.

[SilverLion]

Witherden I just can't see the point in starting at his price as I don't think he will average 100, and as good as he looks there isn't any upside at his price

Can someone explain what exactly this means?

Like which defenders this year do people expect to average 100+? And with the defender options kinda wide open, what “upside” are our picks supposed to have? Aren’t we all just picking select defenders because we think they’ll be the top 6 or 10 or whatever the arbitrary number is? What does starting price actually have to do with it other than being able to afford any one player?

Guys like Hurley, Yeo, Hibberd and Laird would be the top choices to go 100+

Then the next tier down like Howe, Houli, Simmo etc have proven for years that they are reliable 90+ defenders

The concern surrounding Witherden is that he is simply not proven, and at his price why take the risk when you can get someone else who is guaranteed

He is by no way a bad pick. I just don't see the benefit of taking the risk by starting him over someone more proven. Best case scenario he averages 90-95 and you've saved maybe 30-40k so that's not enough of a reward for me as the risk of him averaging high 80's and not being Top 6-10 has much more of an impact than the 30-40k saved

I'll take Hanley and the 50k every day of the week

I think Laird should go 100+, and tbh I don't see any other defenders hitting that this year. Yes Hurley did last season, but I (and I think most other people on FF) are expecting that to drop this year, so he can be picked up cheaper. Yeo was another who went 100+ in 2017, but after R13 he had only one score over 100 in his last 11 games, which is a huge concern. Would expect to pick him up cheaper as well. Hibberd I think would probably be the next closest after Laird, and have him in my side atm, but still not expecting a triple figures average from him.

So with WitherGOAT, a lot are expecting him to increase his average into the 90s, which means you'll get more than what you paid for him. And anything in the 90s will be more than good enough for D6. There is obviously that risk that he doesn't take that next step this year (hence why he isn't in my side atm), but if he averages 90-95, I don't think anyone will be unhappy with picking him. And the 80-90k they'd save by picking WitherGOAT over Hurley or Laird, they can use to make a decent upgrade in the mids or something, if they currently had a speculative pick there (I could start Dusty in the mids for example if I started Withers in defence). And then if you can pick up Hurley or Yeo for 500k or less, that's another big win for your team as well.

Of course, a lot of it depends on how many players you think can go 100+, how much you think Withers will improve this year (if at all), etc. And also, if you think there will be much of a difference between the 5-20 ranked defenders (or thereabouts). I wouldn't be surprised if we just had the 4 or so guys averaging over 95, and then a heap in that 90-95 range.

I also think Hanley will score poo.

Thats basically my justification for picking him, yep. Think Hurley should go 100+ or thereabouts, but is by no means a certainty as you say.
I'm not entirely convinced on him myself heh, think his best is well behind him.

[SilverLion]

Well said Davos

Like I said I don't think Witherden is a bad pick at all, but I just prefer others who are more proven, just a personal choice and nothing more

I agree that anything 90+ is good enough this year, and that we could have zero defenders averaging 100+ or maybe only 1-3

Yep completely fair, and agreed.

[SilverLion]

What Dave said is more or less the point I was trying to make (and what I was gonna reply with until he basically covered it).

I think Laird's just about the only guarantee for 100+ and even then, who knows? I rather save the cash on guys like Witherden and McGrath who I think are good enough to at least go 90 and be not far off the Hibberd and Yeo types, if at all.

And obviously, that cash saved there allows me to use it elsewhere.

But yeah, it's all ultimately a case of different strokes for different folks haha.

Cheers Nige, +1 to pretty much everything you just said hah ;D

[SilverLion]

v7, post Brayshaw not playing midfield concern and Lobb injury



Moves from last side (rookies aside):
Brayshaw --> C. Ellis
Hurley --> Simpson
Rookie --> JOM
Lobb --> Robinson

In this side I've floated the idea of having a JOM/Armitage type at M7 to see how it would look. Pretty happy with it actually, but annoyingly it leaves me with only 7k in the bank, so pending rookie situation, it might not actually work hah.

Do rate Robbo to go 90+ this year with him playing mainly midfield, even if he does tag, he is an offensive tagger who finds the ball.

C. Ellis just a filler for D4 currently, with the lack of a genuine mid pricer and probably not enough rookies to fill 3 on field spots. I could see Ellis potentially being a good pick though, given his price.

The Simmo selection is mainly to give me the funds to allow the other moves to happen. But I'd bank on a 90+ year from him too.

Thoughts?

[fasttrack13]

I don't mind Simpson, i think he finishes the year better than he starts it... Will definitely be able to pick him up for less than 450k at some stage. From what i saw from coffield, he'd be someone i'd look to fit in the backline Racked up 20 touches in 70% game time. (pending rd 1 selection ofcourse). Witherden is definitely a 'like him or you don't sort of guy'.

Midfield is a tick. Feel like running 7 deep is a bit much though, Andrew Brayshaw would be a must for me.

Worried about Jacobs hitting 100+, linked up with gibbs well though v freo.

I love robinson except when he tags, gives away a lot of free kicks, would watch if he does tag.

[Money Shot]

Like the team and have went with a similar structure (thought you copied me at first but looking at the time it was posted looks like i have copied you :P)

Witherden just has so little upside compared to a really big downside. Just as likely to go a 75 average as he is too increase his average and think Lloyd, Tuohy, Savage all have more upside.

Robinson is a good pick as long as he doesnt tag too much but think Sicily, Smith and Petracca are all better picks for a similar price.

apart from that i really like this team.

[SilverLion]

I don't mind Simpson, i think he finishes the year better than he starts it... Will definitely be able to pick him up for less than 450k at some stage. From what i saw from coffield, he'd be someone i'd look to fit in the backline Racked up 20 touches in 70% game time. (pending rd 1 selection ofcourse). Witherden is definitely a 'like him or you don't sort of guy'.

Midfield is a tick. Feel like running 7 deep is a bit much though, Andrew Brayshaw would be a must for me.

Worried about Jacobs hitting 100+, linked up with gibbs well though v freo.

I love robinson except when he tags, gives away a lot of free kicks, would watch if he does tag.

Cheers fasttrack. Yeah the second ruckman after Gawn is a spot annoying pretty much everyone at this stage. Happy to role with Sauce for now, pretty much guaranteed 95+ average as sole ruck in a good side, but could easily change prior to rd. 1.

Am going to be looking at Brayshaw closely in JLT2.

Like the team and have went with a similar structure (thought you copied me at first but looking at the time it was posted looks like i have copied you :P)

Witherden just has so little upside compared to a really big downside. Just as likely to go a 75 average as he is too increase his average and think Lloyd, Tuohy, Savage all have more upside.

Robinson is a good pick as long as he doesnt tag too much but think Sicily, Smith and Petracca are all better picks for a similar price.

apart from that i really like this team.

Cheers MS. Wanna see how WitherGOAT goes in JLT2, the community may have put too high an expectation on the kid. I have no doubt he'll be an elite back at some stage, may or may not start him depending on if I see enough in JLT2 to suggest he's showing further improvement from his amazing first 9 games.

F2/3 are really up for grabs at the moment. Like Robbo, can see him easily averaging 90 with a lot of midfield minutes. Dahl didn't show anything in the first JLT to suggest he's turned the corner, which is concerning. Do like Sicily as I mentioned in his thread, and like Smith as well.

I'm getting the feeling I'll be starting one of JOM/Arma at M7 though, feel like its a bit ignorant to ignore both of them, giving their potential/scoring ability.

[SilverLion]

Final Team (prior to team announcements):



Defence:
Hurley - Lock. Near certainty to go 100-105+, will be a top 6 defender.
Laird - Lock. First defender selected 2 years running. Hasn't left my side.
Savage - Averaged 100 upon returning from injur in the backend of last year, form has continued into JLT. Easy draw first two weeks, expecting a 95+ season. WitherGOAT a certainty to come in some stage in the year if he looks like going 95+.
D4-8 - Rookies. Will be selecting whoever plays.

Midfield:
Dangerfield - If named I'll pick him. If not, I'll pick Martin. If he's a late out, will swap him for Oliver and pocket the cash.
Titch - Lock. First player selected. Hasn't left my side.
M. Crouch - Lock. Ball magnet. Expect 110+. Hasn't left my side.
Fyfe - Lock. Second player selected. Hasn't left my side.
Cripps - Underpriced, should go 105+, good enough for M7/8. Hasn't left my side.
Coniglio - Underpriced, should go 100+, good enough for M8/9. Hasn't left my side.
Armitage - Well underpriced. Stepping stone to super prem, or potential keeper depending on how the rest of the side is shaping up. Wouldn't be surprised to see 90+.
M8-11 - Rookies. Likely to have one of the top 10 draft picks and 3 cheapies.

Rucks:
Martin - This is the position in my side I've been the most uncertain about. Kreuzer is too expensive, Ryder has the rd. 10 bye. All the other ruckman above 500k (excl. Gawn) have some other downside associated with them except for Jacobs. THe only thing with Jacobs is that I'm not completely convinced he can average 100+ for the year. He also tends to put in a few stinkers across the season. I've landed on Martin. Figure that even if Archie Smith comes into the side, he won't be dropped, and will still be playing the most ruck. Certainty to finish with a 95+ average.
Gawn - Lock. If he gets injured, everyone will be in the same boat.

Forwards:
Billings - Expect to improve. Has shown is capable of an 100+ average. Hasn't left my side.
Smith - Should get midfield minutes. Has shown is capable of 95+ average.
Sicily - Should play half-back. Reminiscent of Yeo last year. Should average 90+. DPP flexibility too.
Christensen - Underpriced. Should average 80+ and be a stepping stone to a prem. Hasn't left my side.
F5-8 - Rookies.  Will be tempted to find a mid pricer to squeeze at F4/5, but can only do that if Dangerfield isn't named. Will be selecting whoever plays.

Bye Structure (Prems/Mid pricers only) (Will only start one of the three guys in Red)
Round 10: None
Round 11: Savage, Mitchell, Cripps, S. Martin, Billings, Sicily, Gawn (Christensen?, Armitage? Oliver)
Round 12: Dangerfield (D. Martin)
Round 13: Hurley, Laird, Crouch, Fyfe, Coniglio, Smith

Round 11 bye the main concern. However, I feel there are more players I can target from the later 2 byes than that one anyways, so still reasonably comfortable with that structure.

Edit: Forgot to mention, with this exact side - 11.5k in the bank.

[Ringo]

Nice team to sit but shame on you no Lions captain  ;)

Different plan to me for Danger but fair Plan B.

[ubeaut]

Nice team but u seem to have the byes mixed up? There's no r11 bye just 10,12,13,14
Laird,Crouch,Fyfe have same r14 bye as Savage,Danger,Billings.
Like the Hurley pick.