SilverLions 2018

[quinny88]

Really nice team. Batting deep in all lines. I'm not convinced on Witherden as a starter but happy to be proven wrong.
Menegola the only other question mark I have assuming his midfield time will take a hit but it's an easy swap if needed.
Apart from that I like all of your picks and the balance of your side

[SilverLion]

Really nice team. Batting deep in all lines. I'm not convinced on Witherden as a starter but happy to be proven wrong.
Menegola the only other question mark I have assuming his midfield time will take a hit but it's an easy swap if needed.
Apart from that I like all of your picks and the balance of your side

Cheers Quinny :)

Witherden is my main pod 8)

Yeah Menegola could easily become any other top forward prem depending on pre-season.

[LordSneeze]

Solid team.

I think you are running too much risk on premiums who aren't really guaranteed to be top in their positions.
Witherden, Cripps, Coniglio, Menegola, Nic Nat. When you add in Brayshaw, Lobb & Christensen I feel it is leaving too many risky options that "Could" require correction trades or having to hold sub par premiums.

From you team I would say you have 8 locked premiums, 5 Potential premiums & 3 Midpricers.
I work from a cost of
1 downgrade per MP upgrade
1.5 downgrades per rookie upgrade

Lets say that 2 of your potential premiums require corrections trades while 3 become premiums
2 Trades for Prem Corrections
3 trades to upgrade MP
16.5 trades to upgrade rookies to prems
This would leave you 8.5 trades for rookie corrections, Injury trades and luxury trades. Normally I try to work off a minimum of 10-11 for this area, but 8.5 would be manageable if you are careful.

[SilverLion]

Solid team.

I think you are running too much risk on premiums who aren't really guaranteed to be top in their positions.
Witherden, Cripps, Coniglio, Menegola, Nic Nat. When you add in Brayshaw, Lobb & Christensen I feel it is leaving too many risky options that "Could" require correction trades or having to hold sub par premiums.

From you team I would say you have 8 locked premiums, 5 Potential premiums & 3 Midpricers.
I work from a cost of
1 downgrade per MP upgrade
1.5 downgrades per rookie upgrade

Lets say that 2 of your potential premiums require corrections trades while 3 become premiums
2 Trades for Prem Corrections
3 trades to upgrade MP
16.5 trades to upgrade rookies to prems
This would leave you 8.5 trades for rookie corrections, Injury trades and luxury trades. Normally I try to work off a minimum of 10-11 for this area, but 8.5 would be manageable if you are careful.

Thanks for the breakdown LS!

Fascinating way of looking at it, I've never tried breaking a side down into numbers like that.

Whilst I see the logic there, I feel SC (perhaps this year especially what with basically no forward prem guaranteed) is difficult to look at like that.

Just to clarify, is this how you ranked my team?
Locked Prems: Hurley, Laird, Danger, Mitchell, Crouch, Fyfe, Gawn, Menegola
Potential: Witherden, Cripps, Coniglio, Naitanui, Billings
MP: Brayshaw, Lobb, Christensen
6 starting rookies

So a few things; First, I think we all agree that provided Lobb gets the no. 1 ruck role at the Giants he will be almost a certainty for a 90-95+ average, which would make him a potential prem.

Cripps, Coniglio and Naitanui are all in the side due to being underpriced. For Cripps to be a keeper he needs to average 105+ which he is every chance of, especially in the absence of Gibbs.

Coniglio would only need to average 95-100+ at the minimum to become a M8/M9 come seasons end.

Naitanui is as good an option as any in the ruck really, as Kreuz is too pricey and Ryder has the Rd. 10 bye. Jacobs the other option I am considering.

Billings I do agree is not locked as a prem so could easily require correction.

Brayshaw and Christensen only have to average 80/85+ to increase in cash to be a side trade to a prem.

I suppose then the main thing I question is why you believe it takes 3 trades to upgrade a MP? Ideally it would only take one.

Thanks again for your analysis!

[shaker]

Thought you need a hand with some posts so Witherden over someone like Lloyd for about the same $$ ?

[SilverLion]

Thought you need a hand with some posts so Witherden over someone like Lloyd for about the same $$ ?

Cheers mate haha

Yeah considered Lloyd, brought him in last year when he was cheap and was solid and is definitely reasonably priced this year. My reasoning with Witherden is  that he came into the side last year with little expectation and an interrupted pre-season. With a full pre-season under his belt and Hodge to guide him, he's already shown that he is capable of averaging 90-95+ easily. Will no doubt be taking a lot of cheapies down back much like Lloyd/Laird/Hibberd/Roberton, so should score around the same as well.

Could just be my Lions bias, but every side needs their PoDs imo :)

[shaker]

Thought you need a hand with some posts so Witherden over someone like Lloyd for about the same $$ ?

Cheers mate haha

Yeah considered Lloyd, brought him in last year when he was cheap and was solid and is definitely reasonably priced this year. My reasoning with Witherden is  that he came into the side last year with little expectation and an interrupted pre-season. With a full pre-season under his belt and Hodge to guide him, he's already shown that he is capable of averaging 90-95+ easily. Will no doubt be taking a lot of cheapies down back much like Lloyd/Laird/Hibberd/Roberton, so should score around the same as well.

Could just be my Lions bias, but every side needs their PoDs imo :)

Interesting to see how he goes the rest of team looks good if Witherden does not work your backs will be a bit weak but strong mids , Nic Nat well he would really need to show something before the season for me to pick him and Menegola he scored well last year but just something about him that makes me wary?

[SilverLion]

Thought you need a hand with some posts so Witherden over someone like Lloyd for about the same $$ ?

Cheers mate haha

Yeah considered Lloyd, brought him in last year when he was cheap and was solid and is definitely reasonably priced this year. My reasoning with Witherden is  that he came into the side last year with little expectation and an interrupted pre-season. With a full pre-season under his belt and Hodge to guide him, he's already shown that he is capable of averaging 90-95+ easily. Will no doubt be taking a lot of cheapies down back much like Lloyd/Laird/Hibberd/Roberton, so should score around the same as well.

Could just be my Lions bias, but every side needs their PoDs imo :)

Interesting to see how he goes the rest of team looks good if Witherden does not work your backs will be a bit weak but strong mids , Nic Nat well he would really need to show something before the season for me to pick him and Menegola he scored well last year but just something about him that makes me wary?

If he doesn't work out, I'd probably end up wasting a correctional trade to a Simpson/Lloyd type. But a minor setback given the possbility of starting with a guy that could end up in a lot of sides come season's end ;).
NitNat --> Jacobs will be my move if he doesn't show anything prior to Rd. 1, will require a slight restructure.

I can see why people are wary of picking Menegola, theres a lot of point getters in the Geelong team, so can see the potential for his scoring to drop off. However, if he continues to get mid time like he did last year I'd expect around a 100 average. I think he will get mid time at this stage, but perhaps the JLT and where he is named Rd. 1 may tell a different story. Easy correctional trade prior to Rd. 1 if needed, could swap to any forward :)

[Peter]

I think you can afford to spread the load in the backs, as you have, as there is value and cash to be made. I like Brayshaw, Sicily, McGrath as they can all make points and money

[SilverLion]

I think you can afford to spread the load in the backs, as you have, as there is value and cash to be made. I like Brayshaw, Sicily, McGrath as they can all make points and money

Cheers Peter.

Yeah ideally I'm aiming to have 3 prem backs, 1 MP, 2 rookies. If I take the MP out I feel its too lopsided one way or the other.

[SilverLion]

v6 Post Naitanui concern



Menegola --> Dahlhaus
Naitanui --> Jacobs

$25k left.

I still like Menegola and reckon he'll be a top 5 forward, but have thought heavily about the justification about starting him, and have come to the conclusion that it is unlikely he will go up in price from his starting value, and although may average around 100, that won't make him a necessity from the beginning.

Dahl has the runs on the board, and as I don't really like any of the other options around his price (aside from Billings) I have decided to fall back to the guy we all know is pretty much a certainty for 90-95+. As others have said, he couldn't have played worse than he did last year, and still managed to average 90. Would definitely bank on him improving to at least 95.

Naitanui just has too much risk around him, without a reliable R/F this year, I feel that even if NicNat does play Rd. 1, it'd only be a matter of time before he misses a game, and a guaranteed donut/trade. He isn't cheap enough to justify picking him for his value either (465k, without a game last year?!), if he was priced like Sandilands last year I would probably take the punt due to value alone.

Jacobs the obvious replacement, his popularity on FF has grown over the last month, but I had been considering him as a replacement for NicNat since the get-go, as a precaution in case I felt NicNat wasn't fully ready for Rd. 1, which it looks like he isn't.

I am now content on this side and will only be adjusting premiums if they're injured, and potentially Lobb if he is not named sole ruck round 1, or doesn't play in the JLT, as there are some injury concerns with him floating around. Also potentially WitherGOAT if I chicken out ;D

Bye structure (premiums only):
Round 10: None
Round 12: Mitchell, Cripps, Dahlhaus
Round 13: Hurley, Witherden, Coniglio, Gawn, Lobb (Brayshaw?, Christensen?)
Round 14: Laird, Dangerfield, Crouch, Fyfe, Jacobs, Billings

[DCAK]

Nice team SL  ;D

[SilverLion]

Nice team SL  ;D

Thanks :D

[Bully]

Really good team, well balanced. Brayshaw an interesting pick, an 80 average would be acceptable, similar to the Birch situation. Coniglio is a good pick, think you need coverage at M6 this year. He won't be top 10 but would be fine at M8 or M9 deep into the year. Witherden is a player who could step up a notch and I like the Keefe/Ballenden combo, a potential roving donut if 1 of those players gets sidelined. I have the same set up & will be picking both if one gets named.

[Money Shot]

I really like this team as well, pretty standard structure but with enough pods to make it interesting. Love your work SL.

(only 100 or so more posts to go ;D)