SilverLions 2018

[Peter]

Great side and by chance, mine nearly the same. Thoughts on Robinson as a forward?

[SilverLion]

Midfield:

Tom Mitchell ($653,500): Had him from the start llast season and was far and away my pick of the year. Exceeded expectations in only going under 100 twice for the year (85 and 98), his consistency was incredible and was my first picked for this season. Reliable Captain choice week-in week-out (even for sides with Danger in them, this guy is the perfect fallback) and is a lock for me for next year.

Matt Crouch ($608,300): Watched this guy closely in the second half of last season, and his incredibly consistency has earned himself a spot in my starting side for 2018. From Round 10 onwards, Crouch only went under 100 once (with a 91 in Rd. 22) and I can't see why this form wouldn't continue. The addition of Gibbs should only help Crouch, as the focus of opposition teams will be shifted to now not only Sloane, but him also. This will IMO put Crouch third in line to be tagged, meaning he should be able to rack up huge numbers on regular basis. Lastly he was Adelaide's best player on Grand Final day, and will no doubt have a point to prove next season.

Nathan Fyfe ($597,900): Fyfe repaid the faith in the second half this year, averaging 121.3 after the bye. With that in mind he is probably slightly under priced as he should average 110+ next season. Should be in everyone's side and was one of my first picked.

Patrick Cripps ($537,300): Well underpriced after an injury plagued 2017. Should continue to improve in 2018, and with the absene of Gibbs in the midfield he will no doubt play a greater role. Should easily average 100+ and at that price should be considered a lock in most teams.

Also in contention: Dangerfield, Zorko, Duncan, Coniglio. Will be probably be picking two of these guys, which two will depend on how rest of team is structured. Leaning towards Duncan, Coniglio at this stage. Due to none of these guys being locks, decided not to do a write up on them yet.

Those 4 players that you have highlighted are magnificent selections and I completely agree with your reasoning. I will almost definitely start Mitchell, Cripps and Fyfe. Another factor to consider is the byes. In R12 the teams with the byes are Carlton, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs and West Coast Eagles. For extra balance throughout the byes it's important to take a couple of quality mids from these teams. IMO Mitchell and Cripps are the best two on offer. Bont is the other to consider. Presently I don't have MCrouch as I'm planning on having Dangerfield, Martin and Fyfe who all have the R14 bye. For me to have MCrouch I'd drop Dusty and pocket 48k... if I need a cash grab to set up my R1 team this is a definite option.

Thanks NZ, I said to myself during the finals that I'd locked in Crouch for next season, players like lack will always tend to rack up huge numbers as they don't get attention from opposition teams (think Duncan, Neale, Adams).

[SilverLion]

Not sold on Witherden 480K for someone that has played 9 games he was great this year but you ever heard of the 2nd year blues ? to big of risk for me at that price and the more teams that I see flirting with not starting Danger gives me a warm fuzzy feeling inside  ;D

Amen to that. You’ve only got 9 games worth of data to base the decision to spend $480k on this guy. No thank you.

Personally I don’t mind the pick as I think he’ll be elite and improve on what he’s already shown. I’ll start others though and look to him as an upgrade target if he is one of the top defenders.

This.

Menegola and Witherden have played less than 40 games between them which is a tiny sample size.

Scott has come out and publicly said that both Danger and Ablett will be midfielders first and forwards second. Joel Selwood will pretty much play only midfield which means that Menegola will play predominately forward in my eyes and I just think there are much safer options.

Witherden looks like a gun but again wouldn't you prefer a proven scorer than a guy who has played 9 games in his life.

When picking premiums at the start of the season you want guys you can trust and if you think you can trust those two players mentioned above but i certainly can't at this stage anyways.

He's my smoky down back, whilst I know he has only played 9 games I am confident enough that he'll average 95+ and prove to be a value selection. Surprisingly, I've found myself to be more confident in him than players around him in price (Simpson, Houli, etc.).

[SilverLion]

And regarding your question I think Mullet and Byrne would be more likely to take Docherty's role in my opinion. But I am just a fan looking from the outside.

Yeah I'm concerned that could be the case too, but he's rookie priced and a I said, all rookies are just placeholders for now  ;)

[SilverLion]

Great side and by chance, mine nearly the same. Thoughts on Robinson as a forward?

Thanks Peter! Yep I like Robbo, was in one of my preliminary sides, don't have him currently but will bring him in if he plays mid and looks good during the JLT. Has shown he can go 100+, and with no Rockliff in the side he will no doubt play a greater role.

[SilverLion]

Continuing the write up of the premiums I'm most confident will be in my side Rd. 1 (hard to say lock as theres still 3 months before the season starts ;D)...

Midfield Pt. 2:

Patrick Dangerfield ($749,800): After much, much, much deliberation I've decided that despite his absurd price tag, it will be in my best interests to start with Danger. The key reasons for this are that if he starts well, then I'll be in the boat with the majority, and if he doesn't, its no big deal because the majority of people will have him or look to get him eventually anyways. By starting with him I am saving myself a guaranteed trade during the year as well as giving myself a reliable VC/C choice every single week.

Mitch Duncan ($603,700): Despite not being the logical choice for my bye structure, I've decided (at least for now) to go with Duncan over Zorko. The key reasons being that Duncan has proven himself to be not dissimilar from Matt Crouch in that he will rack up huge SC numbers due to not getting any attention from the opposition. Ordinarily, I'd be concerned of Danger, Jelwood and now Ablett taking points off him, but he has already proven that he can rack up huge numbers regardless of the mids around him. Not going to write off picking Zorko entirely, love the x-factor he would add to my mids, and has a better bye.

Stephen Coniglio ($452,400): Another guy who had an injury riddled 2017 season. At his best in 2016, Conigilio played 21 games, averaging 105.7. If he can get near those numbers again next year, he will prove to be exceptional value and hard to go past.

Also in contention: Zorko, J. Lyons, Neale, Beams.

[SilverLion]

Forwards:

Sam Menegola ($551,800): My selection of Menegola is dependent on where we see him being played throughout the JLT, but provided he is playing more time in the midfield than the forward line as I expect, he will be in my starting side for 2018. He is the only forward available for selection that averaged 100+ in 2017, and would proably be in everyone's sides if Ablett didn't return to Geelong this season. Despite only being in his third season at AFL level, Menegola has been in the system for a long time, and has shown remarkable consistency since being given at opportunity at the highest level, averaging 99 since his debut. Provided he sees a decent amount of midefield time, there is no reason for his numbers to drop away and I believe he will prove to be amongst the top few forwards come season's end.

Jack Billings ($509,500): After a poor start this season, Billings managed to average 99.94 from Rd. 7 onwards, proving to be one of the more consistent forwards (though he did still have 4 scores below 80). He improved his average from 74.9 to 92.7 from 2016 to 2017 and I believe he has shown enough to say he should improve again in 2018. IMO, Billings is one of the very few guys in the forward line that I believe can consistently score 95+ and as such was my first selected forward.

Also in contention: Heeney, Barlow, Robinson, Lobb, Christensen, Bennell

[SilverLion]

And now for the updated side (v3)



By sacrificing starting a third forward premium and Bennell, I've managed to start not only Dangerfield, but Duncan as well. The reasoning behind this is that the defence and forward lines are the harder lines to get right, and also tend to generate less points than the midfield. For those reasons I've decided to drop Heeney, who I wasn't confident to begin with anyways, which along with dropping some mid pricers aloud me to start with 7 premium mids.

If you read my write ups on my defence, mids and forwards, you'll see that I still haven't locked myself into this side (how can you, 3 months to go and we don't know how many rookies will start Rd. 1 ;D), but this is a side I will be happy to sit on for a while I think.

Thoughts?

Also I've decided not to do a write up on the rucks as there isn't any I'm particularly confident about, though I think I'll be starting with 2/3 of Jacobs, Gawn. Naitanui.

[Money Shot]

although you are right in the fact that the other lines are harder to pick one thing to consider is that there are always a few surprises that no one sees coming i.e Oliver/Kelly last season who you would have wanted in your final side last season. One problem with going so deep in the mids so early is it takes away the chance to bring in players like that however that is a very minor thing in the whole scheme of things.

If 5 rookies from both the forwards and backs get up and look like they are a solid chance to cement a spot in there respective sides then this will be a good line up however I am not too confident that there will be 5 rookies in both lines that we can trust.

All your selections however you have explained and are warranted.

[shaker]

Good team silver but you take a big hit in R/14 bye in the mids maybe Duncan out for a R/13 gun

[SilverLion]

although you are right in the fact that the other lines are harder to pick one thing to consider is that there are always a few surprises that no one sees coming i.e Oliver/Kelly last season who you would have wanted in your final side last season. One problem with going so deep in the mids so early is it takes away the chance to bring in players like that however that is a very minor thing in the whole scheme of things.

If 5 rookies from both the forwards and backs get up and look like they are a solid chance to cement a spot in there respective sides then this will be a good line up however I am not too confident that there will be 5 rookies in both lines that we can trust.

All your selections however you have explained and are warranted.

Yep that is true. I've structured it like this for now at least as every premium selection is a guy I'd be happy starting, what remains to be seen is how many of them I'll be aloud to start due to rookies/injuries :P

[SilverLion]

Good team silver but you take a big hit in R/14 bye in the mids maybe Duncan out for a R/13 gun

True. Will keep this in mind as the season gets closer, thanks :)

[Dons]

Good team silver but you take a big hit in R/14 bye in the mids maybe Duncan out for a R/13 gun

True. Will keep this in mind as the season gets closer, thanks :)

I'm actually planning on loading up on rd14 premos to start with (within reason). My thinking being I'll trade up to the other premos I want after their byes and by rd 14 hopefully have a side strong enough to remain competitive.

[Peter]

Really is Heeney vs Coniglio, so if Heeney gets over his injury by then, going to a big decision for you

[SilverLion]

Good team silver but you take a big hit in R/14 bye in the mids maybe Duncan out for a R/13 gun

True. Will keep this in mind as the season gets closer, thanks :)

I'm actually planning on loading up on rd14 premos to start with (within reason). My thinking being I'll trade up to the other premos I want after their byes and by rd 14 hopefully have a side strong enough to remain competitive.

Not a bad plan, but comes with risk if there are some more bolters from the Rd. 14 group. Personally, I usually sacrifice one of my bye rounds to ensure I do well in the other two, but I would like to do my best in all 3 this year if I can work it that way.