Holzman's Heores

[Trindacut]

With Collingwood running Adams, Treloar, Wells, Sidey, De Goey, Maynard through the middle, Pendlebury may not get his 110+, so just can’t start him

Danger has Jelly Ablett Duncan Menegola S.Selwood Blicavs  through the middle and most expect him to be the #1 SCer.

Pendles has gone 120+ with Swan Beams Sidey and Co running through the mids.

last year pendles went 100+ 18/22 times and his poor scores where 89, 87,82, 94. similar the year before.

last year he went 100+ 8/16 times.

the thing to determine is was this a blip or is this the trend.

129 125 127 124 116 118 107

What do the brokers say "the trend is your friend".    Hope you are wrong Holz, I am starting Pendles and this will be his last year with the BombersRule team so expecting a good farewell.

Oh no a downward trend, no one pick him please, would love him as a POD.

FYI I am starting him and cannot see any reason not too. Absolute lock for me and one of the first picked in my side. The only thing that needs any watching is the finger surgeries in the off season, but by all accounts he is well on track, so not really a worry for me.

This year was only the second time in Pendles career where his SC was lower than his DT, the other was his debut year. Historically he has been +10 on a DT to SC conversion over his career.
The main reason I believe for the drop was his DE dropped from 78% to 74%, most other stats were up even with the injury impacted games.

If you remove the last 3 games of the year where he was clearly hampered by the finger injury and his average would have been 112 and that's not even accounting for the conversion decline.

Pretty sure that he broke his finger against GC R17 and that was his last game for the year so there are a few low scores last year that is a bit of a worry

I thought he was playing injured/with niggles for weeks.

If you are ruling every player out that had a few poor games now and then you wouldn't be able to field a team. Pendles history speaks for itself, to me even if he doesn't go back up to 115 (Which I think he will) he still averages 105 at worst and is a lock end of year premium. Compare to someone like Cripps that people are locking in and he has a lot more risk, less upside and weaker team for only $50k less.

Not ruling him out just that Pendles has not thrown up a 70 score let alone a 60 score since 2010 he is 30 years old now ?

I'm ruling him out. Every year there is a few gun players who have been supercoach gods for 5 years and at some point they just stop being gods. This is pendles year. I remember when it was Judd's. He's trending down, with his team, same coach, more midfield depth.

He is only going one way, and it ain't up.

[crowls]

Love a man of conviction.   go for it Trindacut, that is the reason we play the game to see whose strategy and football acumen rules.     

[Peter]

I’m with Trindacut - Pendles won’t go up an average of 10 points imo

[Holz]

ok so my round 1 team is shaping up. Im liking the defensive rookies so only going the 3 premos down back. im even considering dropping a premo to go even stronger on another line but i feel this team is really balanced. with 2 uber premos up front and down back then 2 cheaper premos. 5 uber premos in the middle with JOM as my risky pick. Then 2 set and forget rucks. Spent a little bit more on the my starting rookies but feel thats gives me good safety, would require downgrading 3-4 of them just to get a almost premo so not sure its worth it

Laird Hibberd LLoyd Naughton Doedee Murray (Finalyson Murphy)
Danger Martin Fyfe Mitchell M.Crouch JOM Brayshaw Brodie (Holman Kelly Banfield)
Goldy Gawn (Olango)
Buddy Billins Smith Christenson Stephenson Fogarty (Fritsch Ryan)

[Money Shot]

I really like this team. Is very similar to mine but I have went for some of the more super premiums instead of the Lloyd/Smith selections but this has left me with only one rookie priced over 123k which could leave me in trouble if a few dont get up or get dropped early in the season.


If you trade well (which you always do) you will be in for another big year with this side.

[Holz]

I really like this team. Is very similar to mine but I have went for some of the more super premiums instead of the Lloyd/Smith selections but this has left me with only one rookie priced over 123k which could leave me in trouble if a few dont get up or get dropped early in the season.


If you trade well (which you always do) you will be in for another big year with this side.

Realistically i actually dont think you need to have a great starting sqaud you just need to make sure you dont have a bad one. I want to spend all my picks playing the stock market and i think this set up lets me do it.

I dont have to worry about my rucks (assuming Goldy goes well), i dont have to worry about bringing in the uber premos in the midfield as i already have them.

all you have to do is cull the rookies, find replacement rookies then bring in premos that are under priced due injury or a poor game.

Thats my goal, i went too cute last year.

[Money Shot]

I really like this team. Is very similar to mine but I have went for some of the more super premiums instead of the Lloyd/Smith selections but this has left me with only one rookie priced over 123k which could leave me in trouble if a few dont get up or get dropped early in the season.


If you trade well (which you always do) you will be in for another big year with this side.

Realistically i actually dont think you need to have a great starting sqaud you just need to make sure you dont have a bad one. I want to spend all my picks playing the stock market and i think this set up lets me do it.

I dont have to worry about my rucks (assuming Goldy goes well), i dont have to worry about bringing in the uber premos in the midfield as i already have them.

all you have to do is cull the rookies, find replacement rookies then bring in premos that are under priced due injury or a poor game.

Thats my goal, i went too cute last year.

100% agree with you which is why I have opted to go for the guys I see being top 3-4-2-3 in the position along with Cripps and Coniglio who I see as underpriced and good enough to be keepers and then Bundy for a bit more security as the forward rookies are looking slim.

[quinny88]

ok so my round 1 team is shaping up. Im liking the defensive rookies so only going the 3 premos down back. im even considering dropping a premo to go even stronger on another line but i feel this team is really balanced. with 2 uber premos up front and down back then 2 cheaper premos. 5 uber premos in the middle with JOM as my risky pick. Then 2 set and forget rucks. Spent a little bit more on the my starting rookies but feel thats gives me good safety, would require downgrading 3-4 of them just to get a almost premo so not sure its worth it

Laird Hibberd LLoyd Naughton Doedee Murray (Finalyson Murphy)
Danger Martin Fyfe Mitchell M.Crouch JOM Brayshaw Brodie (Holman Kelly Banfield)
Goldy Gawn (Olango)
Buddy Billins Smith Christenson Stephenson Fogarty (Fritsch Ryan)

Nice team Holz.

Defence, I Don't think Murphy will play round 1 so you may need to find some cash for Coffield. O'Shea is the other that looked excellent in his JLT match but not sure if he's best 22.

Midfield is is stacked with the best and looks great. Just be careful with the rd 14 bye as you already have 4 premos that share that bye.

Rucks are locked and loaded.

Forwards, I like seeing Buddy and it surprises me how many people aren't willing to start him. Only guy with year after year of scoring premo scores. Maybe a little risky having 2 rookies on field but you atleast have to highly rated ones.

Question for you. If Danger doesn't get up for round 1 will you still hold? If not who are you looking at trading to and spending the extra cash on?

[Bully]

Would pick Neale ahead of Crouch, just feel Gibbs will start eating at Crouch's share of the pie.

[Money Shot]

Would pick Neale ahead of Crouch, just feel Gibbs will start eating at Crouch's share of the pie.

Crouch is an accumulator and will still get his 30 possessions a game, killed the end of last year and think he is a lock for a 110-115 average, only reason I am not starting him is because I have the big 4 (Danger, Dusty, Titch and Fyfe) and then went for the under priced premiums with Cripps and Coniglio.

[Ringo]

Nice team as usual Holz and know that you will trade your way through byes. (4 of your mid uber premos with rd 14 bye).

Just watch Fogarty though as I suspect he may be gone in Rd 2 when Tex returns. Got burned last year with non cash making rookies clogging bench, 

[Bully]

Nice team as usual Holz and know that you will trade your way through byes. (4 of your mid uber premos with rd 14 bye).

Just watch Fogarty though as I suspect he may be gone in Rd 2 when Tex returns. Got burned last year with non cash making rookies clogging bench,

The other thing with Fogarty is he plays heaps of early matches so can't even be used as a loophole.

[Bones Bombers]

Very nice side Holz. Only a few personal choices different to mine. Six players I think haha.

My question is how much is left in the bank? I am left with an uncomfortably low 6.9k.

Does it matter much?

[eaglesman]

ok so my round 1 team is shaping up. Im liking the defensive rookies so only going the 3 premos down back. im even considering dropping a premo to go even stronger on another line but i feel this team is really balanced. with 2 uber premos up front and down back then 2 cheaper premos. 5 uber premos in the middle with JOM as my risky pick. Then 2 set and forget rucks. Spent a little bit more on the my starting rookies but feel thats gives me good safety, would require downgrading 3-4 of them just to get a almost premo so not sure its worth it

Laird Hibberd LLoyd Naughton Doedee Murray (Finalyson Murphy)
Danger Martin Fyfe Mitchell M.Crouch JOM Brayshaw Brodie (Holman Kelly Banfield)
Goldy Gawn (Olango)
Buddy Billins Smith Christenson Stephenson Fogarty (Fritsch Ryan)

This side just eliminates most risks imo.
Very safe starting squad and traditional set up I would normally go for.
I’m changing it up this year given that rookies forwards and backs look bleak/overpriced.

[Holz]

Very nice side Holz. Only a few personal choices different to mine. Six players I think haha.

My question is how much is left in the bank? I am left with an uncomfortably low 6.9k.

Does it matter much?

The less money in the bank the more on thr field. I have 20k and anymore id spend it somewhere