Money Shot 2018

Started by Money Shot, December 11, 2017, 04:16:08 PM

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crowls

Spot on MS,  all prems and superprems tend to drop in price over the year as a function of the way scoring works.   Pretty sure you will pick up Martin for a fair bit less at some stage as well.  On the other hand cognilio is underpriced, Beams is probably underpriced, Pendles is another.   

Money Shot

Quote from: crowls on December 19, 2017, 06:35:25 PM
Spot on MS,  all prems and superprems tend to drop in price over the year as a function of the way scoring works.   Pretty sure you will pick up Martin for a fair bit less at some stage as well.  On the other hand cognilio is underpriced, Beams is probably underpriced, Pendles is another.
Add Selwood and Cripps too that list.

But you can't pick a team of players like that either.

You need a couple of the dangers/martins/Mitchell's in your team. After all they are that price for a reason.

Money Shot

PART 3: RUCKS

Not really much to talk about here as I have went with a pretty generic combo.

Max Gawn: Would have picked him even if he was 100k more this season to be honest. In 2016 he went 140+ on 7 occasions which made him an incredible VC/C option and that was at the age of 23 he is now 25 and heading into his prime which means he could dominate opposition rucks more often which means more big scores. I see his discounted price as a bonus and don’t see him as a concern due to injury as it seems to be a one off.

Nic Nat: If he is fit you can just about lock in a 100-105 average which would easily be a top 5 ruck option and good enough to be a keeper but obviously that is where the risk lies. The thing that I like about Nic Nat is that everyone (50% of the comp) will pick him which means that if he does go down most of your opposition will be in the same boat. So although there is a chance he gets injured and those that don’t start him will get a jump on the pack I am happy to back him in for 18-20 games at a 100 average which should be good enough for the season.

Tim English: He is in because he played a few games late last year and even though he will probably only be good for 60 points if he plays it is better than a donut. Obviously if any other rookies get up for round 1 then they will be considered.

Ideally Nic Nat to Ryder is something I would do after ports early bye but obviously that would be a luxury.

Money Shot

#33
PART 4: FORWARDS

Lance Franklin: Obviously he is a key position forward which means he will have a few games where he kills it (3 games at 160+ last season) and he will have a few stinkers (2 games a below 50) but in saying that I believe he has every chance of being the number one forward come seasons end. He averaged 88.5 in the 8 losses Sydney had last season but in the 14 wins he averaged 104.1 and I think Sydney will improve on last season which is why I think Franklin could go 100+.

Isaac Heeney: This guy would be in pretty much every supercoach team at the moment if it wasn’t for his interrupted preseason however he has shown that no matter how interrupted his preseason may be he is always going to perform on game day. After returning from glandular fever he scored: 75, 107, 116 and then 130. If he started the season like that this season I would well and truly take that. He is only 21 and will only improve.

Toby Greene: My one and only concern with Greene is him getting ruled out by suspension but with the MRP rule changes I think he could finally play a full season. He has already averaged above 100 before in 2014 showing that he is a genuine chance for the #1 mantle at the end of the season based on average but the problem is him missing games. If he doesn’t get suspended which I am backing him to do I think anything is possible. He has only just turned 24 which is when most players start hitting there peak. He is a risk but at this stage I am willing to take it.

Harley Bennell: Injury is the only concern here as we all know his scoring potential. If he can stay on the park he is a genuine top 10 forward chance and I rate him much more highly than Christensen and Ah Chee who are the other two chances at his price. I am backing him in for a good season with a full preseason and one year left on his contract it is now or never for Bennell. He is a risk but at this stage I am willing to take it.

Jack Higgins: As I said with Richards, I don’t usually have rookies locked in my side from round 1 but if Higgins is named round 1 he is. He broke the Champion Data record with him scoring 100+ in 29/32 games during junior footy showing that he doesn’t have a bad game. Only problem is he is at Richmond who already have a plethora of small forwards.

Peter

Another point to consider is Heeney always starts games well and has a stack of DT and SC points up by half-time. With the way the scoring works, he usually got to 100 points, even if he tired in the second half

Money Shot

Quote from: Peter on December 22, 2017, 01:20:06 PM
Another point to consider is Heeney always starts games well and has a stack of DT and SC points up by half-time. With the way the scoring works, he usually got to 100 points, even if he tired in the second half
Was not aware of that but it is good insight. Generally games are one in the first half therefore points will be worth more? is that what you are saying?

Obviously not true in close games...

Peter

Yes, that is what I am saying. For a forward to be on 65-70 points at half time, as he was time and again, he didn't have to star in the second half to get to 90-100. In close games, the major points in the second half will go to the player instrumental in winning the game, but if you watch the first half of SC scores, if you start well, you will generally go close to 100+. As I had him in SC, RDT and AF from the start of 2017, really helped in piling up the points. Had Franklin as well for the whole season and had to rely on him coming home hard in games, scoring goals, to get a decent score and no way am I going to put myself through that again!

Money Shot

Quote from: Peter on December 22, 2017, 05:36:47 PM
Yes, that is what I am saying. For a forward to be on 65-70 points at half time, as he was time and again, he didn't have to star in the second half to get to 90-100. In close games, the major points in the second half will go to the player instrumental in winning the game, but if you watch the first half of SC scores, if you start well, you will generally go close to 100+. As I had him in SC, RDT and AF from the start of 2017, really helped in piling up the points. Had Franklin as well for the whole season and had to rely on him coming home hard in games, scoring goals, to get a decent score and no way am I going to put myself through that again!
That's really good to know! Thanks mate! However, I am confident that Franklin will have a good year even if it is 140 one week
And 60 the next.

SilverLion

Quote from: Money Shot on December 23, 2017, 11:28:47 AM
Quote from: Peter on December 22, 2017, 05:36:47 PM
Yes, that is what I am saying. For a forward to be on 65-70 points at half time, as he was time and again, he didn't have to star in the second half to get to 90-100. In close games, the major points in the second half will go to the player instrumental in winning the game, but if you watch the first half of SC scores, if you start well, you will generally go close to 100+. As I had him in SC, RDT and AF from the start of 2017, really helped in piling up the points. Had Franklin as well for the whole season and had to rely on him coming home hard in games, scoring goals, to get a decent score and no way am I going to put myself through that again!
That's really good to know! Thanks mate! However, I am confident that Franklin will have a good year even if it is 140 one week
And 60 the next.

Tbh, that doesn't seem to be too bad this year for a starting forward prem, he looks like a better option than most. Would juuust take Heeney over him though.

Peter

Also Sydney have very tough draw for first few rounds, so may be able to pick up Franklin as a cheapie later

Peter

They could very easily be 0-6 again, although they haven’t got the injury issues this pre-season, according to all reports

Money Shot

Quote from: Peter on December 25, 2017, 10:08:31 AM
They could very easily be 0-6 again, although they haven’t got the injury issues this pre-season, according to all reports
Since Franklin has been a swan he has averaged 93.5 against the 6 teams he verses first up. Not great but I'll take it at this stage.

Peter

Fair enough, but I’ll take Heeney, at this time

Money Shot

#43
Version 3

def: Hurley, Yeo, Laird, Birchall, Richards, Doedee (Murphy, Garner)
mid: Danger, Martin, Mitchell, Kelly, Fyfe, Rayner, Ahern, Freeman (Kelly, Walker, Worpel)
ruck: Gawn, Nic Nat (Cameron)
fwd: Heeney, Franklin, Greene, Christensen, Higgins, Venables (Daniels, Ryan)
cash: $10,200

A few changes made main one is Chrsitensen in for Bennell. I looked at Ah Chee but I'm not confident that he has it in him to average 80+ whereas Christensen has in the past. Have also had more of a look at the rookies that i think are likely to get games.

Bye structure is 4/5/6 for premiums (including Birchall and Christensen) which is perfect in my eyes.

SilverLion

Quote from: Money Shot on January 09, 2018, 11:23:13 AM
Version 3

def: Hurley, Yeo, Laird, Birchall, Richards, Doedee (Murphy, Garner)
mid: Danger, Martin, Mitchell, Kelly, Fyfe, Rayner, Ahern, Freeman (Kelly, Walker, Worpel)
ruck: Gawn, Nic Nat (Cameron)
fwd: Heeney, Franklin, Greene, Christensen, Higgins, Venables (Daniels, Ryan)
cash: $10,200

A few changes made main one is Chrsitensen in for Bennell. I looked at Ah Chee but I'm not confident that he has it in him to average 80+ whereas Christensen has in the past. Have also had more of a look at the rookies that i think are likely to get games.
Great side with strong DEFs and FWDs. Feel you're probably one mid prem short though (Cripps?).