Thinking about 2018

Started by enzedder, August 20, 2017, 11:26:11 AM

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crowls

Quote from: enzedder on October 22, 2017, 07:36:58 PM
Yeah, that's probably the best play with him I'd say.
No over 30s in Bombers Rule is the Rule.    Not even considering.

DCAK

Hey, re: West Coast, who do you see picking up the positions/time left in the midfield by the departure of Mitchell/Priddis?

Jroo

Saw an article on the Herald Sun, someone from Champion Data ruling out Danger Dusty as MID/FWDs next year, didn't spend enough time during the H&A season

Spite

Quote from: Spite on October 13, 2017, 11:03:50 AM
Quote from: Ricochet on October 07, 2017, 11:03:35 AM
Quote from: DCAK on October 07, 2017, 10:53:45 AM
Quote from: Ricochet on October 06, 2017, 08:15:56 PM
Heatmaps don't really mean much

It means that statistically Bont spent most of his playing time in the midfield, which is why he is listed as a midfielder.  IMO there is little chance of him gaining DPP status.  Yes he did score 20 goals for the year, but that doesn't make him a forward, it makes him a goal scoring midfielder.  I could be wrong though! ; )
Not quite.

Heatmaps show where are player gains possessions. Positions are determined from where a player starts in relation to the ball, not where they win the footy.

For example, a player could be a high half fwd who starts slightly fwd of each stoppage. He pushes up the ground and receives all of his ball in the middle of the ground. He'd could have a similar heatmap to the Bont above, but be a FWD.

I'm not saying Bont won't be a mid only but, since he starts inside a lot, merely pointing out that heatmaps are misleading

I'll just leave this here

quinny88

Quote from: JROO8 on October 23, 2017, 12:30:15 PM
Saw an article on the Herald Sun, someone from Champion Data ruling out Danger Dusty as MID/FWDs next year, didn't spend enough time during the H&A season

Yeah was never gonna happen. Even if they spent the required time forward they probably still would have said no

LordSneeze

Quote from: quinny88 on October 23, 2017, 11:37:51 PM
Quote from: JROO8 on October 23, 2017, 12:30:15 PM
Saw an article on the Herald Sun, someone from Champion Data ruling out Danger Dusty as MID/FWDs next year, didn't spend enough time during the H&A season

Yeah was never gonna happen. Even if they spent the required time forward they probably still would have said no

Yeah had they met the requirement, CD would have likely just upped the limit requirement on time started forward. The data that was provided was time spent forward in total, but it is worked out off amount of times starting forward. Its why heatmaps can't be trusted.

GCSkiwi

Quote from: LordSneeze on October 20, 2017, 12:00:27 PM
Rockliff to Port â€" We all know what he can produce and if they price him at 96 then he should be a no brainer pick. Port do not have any big point scoring midfielders and with the fresh start if fit he is the one worth the risk.

I don't think Rocky will ever be a no-brainer for me. He requires a lot of thought :P
2011 was his last properly good season (20 games, avg 113), the only other seasons he's gone over 110 are 2014 and 2016, where he played 18 and 17 respectively. He did get 109 from 21 in 2013. In short, he's too inconsistent, misses games, and isn't lifting the roof.

Peter

Weller if he is named as Def/Mid will be the 2018 Adams

_wato

#83
Thinking I'm going pretty straight forward next year. And bloody hell, I am holding my trades, fml

Defence - Doc (obvious), Williams (94 avg, very consistent and has a big ceiling, think he could go 100), Yeo (more mid time) and will consider Laird/Howe/Hibberd + rookies

Midfield - Danger (obvious), Pendles (consistent and cheap), Fyfe (cheap for what he can produce), Beams (underpriced), Cripps (underpriced due to injury), Kennedy (at Bloos), Wigg (at GC) and will consider Titch/MCrouch/Neale/Jelwood/Parker/Ward + rookies

Rucks - Gawn + NN (obvious) will also consider Grundy

Forwards - Gray (silly not to), Greene/Billings (not sure yet but one of the two), Dev Smith (have to pick him), Lobb (#1 ruck at GWS, no brainer), will also consider JJK/Rioli/Bennell + rookies

So

DEF: Doc, Williams, Yeo + Rookies
MID: Danger, Pendles, Fyfe, Beams, Cripps, Kennedy, Wigg + Rookies
RUC: Gawn, NN
FWDS: Gray, Greene/Billings, Smith, Lobb + Rookies

crowls

Quote from: _wato on October 25, 2017, 11:00:09 AM
Thinking I'm going pretty straight forward next year. And bloody hell, I am holding my trades, fml

Defence - Doc (obvious), Williams (94 avg, very consistent and has a big ceiling, think he could go 100), Yeo (more mid time) and will consider Laird/Howe/Hibberd + rookies

Midfield - Danger (obvious), Pendles (consistent and cheap), Fyfe (cheap for what he can produce), Beams (underpriced), Cripps (underpriced due to injury), Kennedy (at Bloos), Wigg (at GC) and will consider Titch/MCrouch/Neale/Jelwood/Parker/Ward + rookies

Rucks - Gawn + NN (obvious) will also consider Grundy

Forwards - Gray (silly not to), Greene/Billings (not sure yet but one of the two), Dev Smith (have to pick him), Lobb (#1 ruck at GWS, no brainer), will also consider JJK/Rioli/Bennell + rookies

So

DEF: Doc, Williams, Yeo + Rookies
MID: Danger, Pendles, Fyfe, Beams, Cripps, Kennedy, Wigg + Rookies
RUC: Gawn, NN
FWDS: Gray, Greene/Billings, Smith, Lobb + Rookies
my thoughts.  -  like the basis of your team Wato.   
Lobb - avg 72 in 2017.    I am not sure what to expect as 1st Ruck for GWS.   If you have him in your forwards it seems you expect 90-95 as worst case scenario.   What scores has Lobb put up when playing as sole ruck in past?
Beams - with  101 avg last year he will cost 550k.  has not played more than 19 games in past 5 years.  11/19 over 100 and 8/11 over 120 so proven scorer and decent VC option.  Strikes me as someone to start with and dump at their peak or bring in at byes if they have had a quiet start to the season.    Will be at least 10 other guys who score more points over the year. 
Cripps avg98 with 25pt last game in that so call it 103.   Probably a 110 player with upside so a decent choice at a good price.   
Gray will be a watch and see for me.  Not sure how much on ball time he will get and likely to be a low 90s scorer if majority of time in fwd line.. 

_wato

Lobb's two games in finals with Mummy out had 30 and 35 hitouts or something very similar and scored 108 and 129. Had really good HTA stats. Should easily go 95-100. When Beams is fit (he had actual injury games) he averaged around 110. He is a 115 scorer when properly fit. Cripps is an absolute no brainer with Gibbs gone, can easily hold his own. Went 107 avg last year so 110 should be about right.

Surely you'd take a fit Gray in the forward line scoring 40's and 150's... giving you a 95-100 avg.

Trindacut

Quote from: _wato on October 25, 2017, 11:00:09 AM
Thinking I'm going pretty straight forward next year. And bloody hell, I am holding my trades, fml

Defence - Doc (obvious), Williams (94 avg, very consistent and has a big ceiling, think he could go 100), Yeo (more mid time) and will consider Laird/Howe/Hibberd + rookies

Midfield - Danger (obvious), Pendles (consistent and cheap), Fyfe (cheap for what he can produce), Beams (underpriced), Cripps (underpriced due to injury), Kennedy (at Bloos), Wigg (at GC) and will consider Titch/MCrouch/Neale/Jelwood/Parker/Ward + rookies

Rucks - Gawn + NN (obvious) will also consider Grundy

Forwards - Gray (silly not to), Greene/Billings (not sure yet but one of the two), Dev Smith (have to pick him), Lobb (#1 ruck at GWS, no brainer), will also consider JJK/Rioli/Bennell + rookies

So

DEF: Doc, Williams, Yeo + Rookies
MID: Danger, Pendles, Fyfe, Beams, Cripps, Kennedy, Wigg + Rookies
RUC: Gawn, NN
FWDS: Gray, Greene/Billings, Smith, Lobb + Rookies

Probably a few too many risky players in there. While saving cash is important, you also need to get the best consistancy from your starting players. I make the mistake year after year of taking th ebig risks for big rewards and it always shoots me in the foot.

Trindacut

DEF: Doc, Williams, Yeo + Rookies
MID: Danger, Pendles, Fyfe, Beams, Cripps, Kennedy, Wigg + Rookies
RUC: Gawn, NN
FWDS: Gray, Greene/Billings, Smith, Lobb + Rookies

DEF: Doch, Adams (maybe?)
MID: Danger, Martin, Fyfe
RUCK: Kruezer, Nic Nat
FWD:  Ryder, Greene

Should fit 3-4 more guns in there but will pick up some bargains hopefully. Nic Nat

GoLions

Quote from: Trindacut on October 25, 2017, 07:00:52 PM
DEF: Doc, Williams, Yeo + Rookies
MID: Danger, Pendles, Fyfe, Beams, Cripps, Kennedy, Wigg + Rookies
RUC: Gawn, NN
FWDS: Gray, Greene/Billings, Smith, Lobb + Rookies

DEF: Doch, Adams (maybe?)
MID: Danger, Martin, Fyfe
RUCK: Kruezer, Nic Nat
FWD:  Ryder, Greene

Should fit 3-4 more guns in there but will pick up some bargains hopefully. Nic Nat
Adams mid only, Ryder ruck only, and no chance I'd pay top dollar for Kreuzer with his history tbh

_wato

Quote from: Trindacut on October 25, 2017, 06:55:57 PM
Quote from: _wato on October 25, 2017, 11:00:09 AM
Thinking I'm going pretty straight forward next year. And bloody hell, I am holding my trades, fml

Defence - Doc (obvious), Williams (94 avg, very consistent and has a big ceiling, think he could go 100), Yeo (more mid time) and will consider Laird/Howe/Hibberd + rookies

Midfield - Danger (obvious), Pendles (consistent and cheap), Fyfe (cheap for what he can produce), Beams (underpriced), Cripps (underpriced due to injury), Kennedy (at Bloos), Wigg (at GC) and will consider Titch/MCrouch/Neale/Jelwood/Parker/Ward + rookies

Rucks - Gawn + NN (obvious) will also consider Grundy

Forwards - Gray (silly not to), Greene/Billings (not sure yet but one of the two), Dev Smith (have to pick him), Lobb (#1 ruck at GWS, no brainer), will also consider JJK/Rioli/Bennell + rookies

So

DEF: Doc, Williams, Yeo + Rookies
MID: Danger, Pendles, Fyfe, Beams, Cripps, Kennedy, Wigg + Rookies
RUC: Gawn, NN
FWDS: Gray, Greene/Billings, Smith, Lobb + Rookies

Probably a few too many risky players in there. While saving cash is important, you also need to get the best consistancy from your starting players. I make the mistake year after year of taking th ebig risks for big rewards and it always shoots me in the foot.

The only risk I see in this team is Beams. Everyone else is a good pick with upside imo. May go Beams to Titchell to get a guaranteed 110 each week and limited injury risk.