Thinking about 2018

[crowls]

So have started putting my thoughts together for 2018 team


Def:  Docherty, Adams (D/M) only, Laird,    trade in Lloyd, Hibberd, Yeo look at Wetherden, Nat Wilson, Burton, Rance, Houli.     Simpson (too old)
Mids: Danger, Pendles, Fyfe, Mitchell/Neale       trade in Dusty, Merrett, Oliver, Kelly
Rucks,  NicNat,    ? Gawn       look at R/F coverage Ryder or Daniher
Fwds:  Heeney, Gray, Billings,     consider Greene, McGovern (d/f) C Curnow, Steele




Structure
End of year -
Def,  105, 95,95,95,90,90   95avg  570
Mid,  120,115,115,110,110,110,105,105  111avg  Tot 890 +C 120 = 1010
Ruc,  105,95    Avg  100  Tot 200
Fwd,  105, 100, 95,95,90 90   96 avg  575
Total;  2455


Rules of thumb -

   
• No over 30's,
• Favor players with fitness history over injury history,
• Ruck is one Key to successful season.  500pt difference minimum between good and poor ruck picks over season as well as trades saved.   only 5-6 rucks a season avg 21/22 games over last 4 years.  Must have coverage.
• Forwards and Def,  DPP over single role players.
• Whatever happens no JOM.

Start of Year    5440 per point.   1838 points plus C.  = 1960



Patrick Dangerfield 115-130. 50% drop to high 500s at some stage thru year.
Max Gawn 90-115 455-620k range High Variability, injury risk
Gary Ablett 110-130 hasnt played >15games in 4 years. possible pick up if drops below 550k mid season or start and trade out when maximised >650k
Scott Pendlebury - Consistent Max Games 105-120 range, 30 in 2018. Likely to be cheapest at start of year if remains uninjured. 
Dan Hannebery 26yr 95-112 range, will drop to 500k at some point. Not good option
Lachie Neale 24yrs 105-115 with upside, low of 520k played two low scoring games in last three rounds when played injured. probably underpriced.
JP Kennedy 30yrs in June. 103-115  Very inconsistent in 2017, turning 30,  not good option
Luke Parker 25yrs 99-110  at bottom end of range. Can pick up 480k at some stage
Sam Docherty 24yrs 110-115 clearly best defender.  MUST have
Dusty Martin 26yrs 105-120 still on the up. 4 scores under 100 in early rounds dropped his price.   Do not start him but look to pick him up during a lull. <550k  is good buy
Tom Mitchell 24yrs 105-119 - on the up, consistent.
Josh Kelly 23yrs 1yr break out, with more time in the middle.  110-120, dropped price early when had 3 games in 90s.  Not proven but should be a lower risk option with upside. 
Zach Merrett 22yrs 109-120,  Younger and more proven than Kelly. 2 drop offs in 2017, early and late season.   High Ceiling. 
Clayton Oliver 20yrs 111- one year breakout, likely to continue 105-120 possibility.  4 games in 90s 1 in 80s rest over 100.   
Nathan Fyfe 27yrs,  105-125  High Ceiling, if uninjured should do 120 plus with bottom of 110.  Lull from rnd 6-15, finished season very strongly.   Probably need to start if Fit.
Dayne Beams 28yrs  bad patch rnd 13-17, 100-110 finished season strong.  Possible pick up mid season after lull at low 500s. Rockliff departure should help.  Injury prone
Bontempelli 22yrs,  100-108  high variability, 9 games in 90’s or lower.  Possible trade in option at low cost if he has a slump buy <510.   Definite starter if M/F
Taylor Adams 24yrs 100-110.  Very consistent 2017.  Did have a slump mid season 2017. Depends on Injuries.   Good D/M option not a Mid only option unless drops below 500k
Michael Hibberd 28yrs 10/18 games in 2017 over 100.  Avg 99.  92-100 range.  Good Def option but will be paying premium for him.  Will be able to get him 470-500k during year.
Rory Laird 24yrs 93-100 will pay premium at start of year but can pick him up for 470k during year if timing is right.
Isaac Heeney 21 yrs 95-105 F/M DPP option.   Avg98 in 2017, 8/18 games 100+
Robbie Gray 29yrs 91 avg 2017, after3 yrs around 110.  Good F/M option (nb Rocky and Motlop now at Port.  Could release Gray to onball or limit him even more:  Probably wait and see how he is played before committing)
Jack Billings  10 games +100 8 <80.  Should improve consistency next year, more mid minutes as well.   93avg.   Range 90-105 given his upside in reduce lower end scores..   Good F/M options
Jack Steele  22yrs old 2017 first season of consistent game time, played forward plenty of minutes. If tank improves and gets more mid time, floor will lift seeing 5-10 point rise in average.  For 100pt average.  Expect F/M DPP
Charlie Curnow 20yrs old,  big KPP with ability to play mid and on ball.   Avg 90 for last 8 games of 2017.   If gets more time on ball. Will increase average 10-15 points, at worst could be F6/7 by years end and save trade.   Likely price 405k  Year end 2000pts

[enzedder]

Good to see you're keen crowls.
No Shaw... you sure about that. ;) I'm not touching that either.
Docherty and Laird pick themselves. Yeo and Hibberd others I like for defence. Will Adams get defence? I think not but reckon Yeo will.
Those mids look great. Beams and M Crouch worthy of a start too IMO.
NicNat will be in everyone's team with Gawn or Ryder probably the next most popular.
Forwards interest me as it is open to lots of different discussion and possibilities. Billings should get fwd status and should keep improving so reckon he is just about a lock. Heeney will be a solid option too. Thought he played/ started predominantly midfield this year but would like it if he retained dpp status. Gray I'm not as keen on now Rocky is headed to Port. Both Wingard and Gray will see less mid time with Rocky in the team. Greene will be awesome if he plays 22. I don't want to pick him but may have to haha.

[Gigantor]

Good write up mate

Agree with enzedder about Gray plus his new forward role means he has  a massive standard deviation. Potential to pick him up for low 400's later in the year.
Either way I think fwds will be a bit of a minefield again like this year, unless they are very generous with DPP.


What about Jack Redden? No Mitch and Priddis means there is plenty of points up for grabs in the West Coast midfeild. Will be priced at 430k, has shown he is capable of averaging 100+. Feel like from a risk/reward point of view the reward is far greater than the risk.
Also he averaged 97 in the last 7 rounds

[Spite]

Heatmaps don't really mean much

It means that statistically Bont spent most of his playing time in the midfield, which is why he is listed as a midfielder.  IMO there is little chance of him gaining DPP status.  Yes he did score 20 goals for the year, but that doesn't make him a forward, it makes him a goal scoring midfielder.  I could be wrong though! ; )

Not quite.

Heatmaps show where are player gains possessions. Positions are determined from where a player starts in relation to the ball, not where they win the footy.

For example, a player could be a high half fwd who starts slightly fwd of each stoppage. He pushes up the ground and receives all of his ball in the middle of the ground. He'd could have a similar heatmap to the Bont above, but be a FWD.

I'm not saying Bont won't be a mid only but, since he starts inside a lot, merely pointing out that heatmaps are misleading

I'll just leave this here

[crowls]

One thing I am doing in 2018 is focussing on Total Points over average.   So on a risk adjusted basis select the most likely total points contributor for dollar value.   A good example was Jarrod Roughead last year.   18th in Fwd averages and 10th in Total points.    How many people started him and traded him out early?


Rowsus (supercoachtalk) talks about PIT.   For consideration next year would be Heeney.  As I look at him and his style of play, I believe he is likely to get at least one concussion during the season.  This will see him miss at least one game and maybe more.   Therefore when comparing him to another forward option with better games played history, you need to deflate Heeney's avg and PIT.   


Robbie Gray - good point on the impact of Rockliff on Gray.   Will reserve my opinion until I see what players they have next season.  If Gray is going to play mainly as forward then there is no upside and he is likely low 90s fwd at best.   If he is rotating through the mids then he is likely 100+ fwd.   Port would have benefited from having a Stringer and releasing Gray to an on ball role.   


Redden   80avg,  27years old.   Has relatively low TOG (did increase towards end of year),  Last 4 years 14/17/14/17 games so low PIT figure.  Will cost 435k approx.   At best avg 100 with Lions.  Better off saving money and getting cash generation with a rookie, or paying more for a keeper. 

[crowls]

Heatmaps don't really mean much

It means that statistically Bont spent most of his playing time in the midfield, which is why he is listed as a midfielder.  IMO there is little chance of him gaining DPP status.  Yes he did score 20 goals for the year, but that doesn't make him a forward, it makes him a goal scoring midfielder.  I could be wrong though! ; )

Not quite.

Heatmaps show where are player gains possessions. Positions are determined from where a player starts in relation to the ball, not where they win the footy.

For example, a player could be a high half fwd who starts slightly fwd of each stoppage. He pushes up the ground and receives all of his ball in the middle of the ground. He'd could have a similar heatmap to the Bont above, but be a FWD.

I'm not saying Bont won't be a mid only but, since he starts inside a lot, merely pointing out that heatmaps are misleading

Does anyone know the mix that CD uses when determining positions and DPP.   ie >30% time starting in a position makes you eligible for that sector.   Based on starting position I see Bont as a viable M/F.   Adams on the other hand is unlikely to M/D next year but we will probably get Yeo. 

[crowls]

Agree with enzedder about Gray plus his new forward role means he has  a massive standard deviation. Potential to pick him up for low 400's later in the year.
Either way I think fwds will be a bit of a minefield again like this year, unless they are very generous with DPP.

If Motlop ends up at Port, will that see Gray freed up to play increased on ball minutes.  If so he comes back into consideration as great Fwd option next year.

[Ricochet]

Heatmaps don't really mean much

It means that statistically Bont spent most of his playing time in the midfield, which is why he is listed as a midfielder.  IMO there is little chance of him gaining DPP status.  Yes he did score 20 goals for the year, but that doesn't make him a forward, it makes him a goal scoring midfielder.  I could be wrong though! ; )

Not quite.

Heatmaps show where are player gains possessions. Positions are determined from where a player starts in relation to the ball, not where they win the footy.

For example, a player could be a high half fwd who starts slightly fwd of each stoppage. He pushes up the ground and receives all of his ball in the middle of the ground. He'd could have a similar heatmap to the Bont above, but be a FWD.

I'm not saying Bont won't be a mid only but, since he starts inside a lot, merely pointing out that heatmaps are misleading

Does anyone know the mix that CD uses when determining positions and DPP.   ie >30% time starting in a position makes you eligible for that sector.   Based on starting position I see Bont as a viable M/F.   Adams on the other hand is unlikely to M/D next year but we will probably get Yeo.

Yep it's 35% crowls

[crowls]

Thanks Ricochet

[DCAK]

I really doubt Adams will be DPP in 2018, most likely just MID.

[Ricochet]

Heatmaps don't really mean much

[DCAK]

Heatmaps don't really mean much

Okay, put your money where your mouth is, I bet you $20 Adams is MID only in SC 2018

[Ricochet]

Heatmaps don't really mean much

Okay, put your money where your mouth is, I bet you $20 Adams is MID only in SC 2018

I'm not saying he won't be.

But using heatmaps as proof is pretty much useless


For one they only split into defence and fwd, when there are 3 positions to fill... fwd, mid and defence

Second, like i mentioned before, they only show where a player gets his possessions which isnt how CD determine player's positions

[Peter]

Fair point. So we shall see for both Sidey and Adams, for whom heat maps have been shown

[quinny88]

Anyone become relevant since being traded?