Thinking about 2018

[LordSneeze]

I don't feel he could comfortably average 90 and that is my cutoff for a keeper.

Not sure you can say he has been dealing with injuries for years and 2 of the last 4 years he has played 22 games. While you can say his drop in points is off positional changes, if is guesswork in that case to know what role he will play. If he was $200k I take that risk, but at this price point I don't see the value unless he is a keeper and just cant see it happening.

He will be popular, so one of those ones that could be a good POD not taking on.

[RaisyDaisy]

So I just did a quick scan to see what cheap ex prems we have

Birch down back

Griffin is 277K or something, super cheap but don't think I could do it. Same for JOM

Christensen and Bennell I like in the forward line though. Bennell a lock at that price if he plays, and Bundy I like too

Lids cheap too, but don't think I'll take him

Anyone else?

[PiPies]

So I just did a quick scan to see what cheap ex prems we have

Birch down back

Griffin is 277K or something, super cheap but don't think I could do it. Same for JOM

Christensen and Bennell I like in the forward line though.

Bennell is damn tempting at 254k, if he could string a few games together. Risk/reward but we all know what he's capable of. Easy rookie correction if he spuds too.

[RaisyDaisy]

Cyril at 317k will be tempting too, but I won't go there

Just saw that Conigs is 450k. Think I will try to squeeze him in at that price

[Gigantor]

So after a little digging I've noticed they have been a lot more generous with discounts on low end players.

In the past it was very black and white, played less than 8 games and averaged over 60? Discount is applied.
This lead to ridiculous situations where a player who averaged 59.9 would be more expensive than a player who averaged 60.1

In 2017 they changed it and had a sliding scale, 60+ got the full discount, 50-60 got a bit less, 40-50 less again. The trade off was players who missed a whole seasons like Roughie only got a 30% discount not 40%. Plus guys like GAJ, Fyfe, Beams and JOM got a minimal or no discount just because :)

Now on to 2018, they have more or less removed the average requirement. For example Ben Long and Brad Sheer both played 4 games with aves in the 30, in the past no discount, 2018 they get the full 20% discount that higher averaging players got like Deledio (He was the highest averaging 4 game player from 2017)

So this means that there are lot of players who played 1-7 games that in the past would have been in the crappy 200k-250k range and never looked at, are now in the 150k-200k range and could be more viable than some of the top end rookies who don't have a full season in the system under their belt


TLDR:

Increased discounts for low end players means a lot of the 2017 Rookies who played a few games are still relatively cheap in 2018 and could be viable picks!

[DCAK]

Grant Birchall 277k would be hard not to consider. Even more so if you could sneak him in as a D5

Will be in my first draft. How long he stays in there is the question.

My Take on Birchall

Gonna be 30 at the start of the season.
Take out his injury interrupted 6 and he averaged 77 last year.
Has declined in scoring for 5 straight years from a peak of 94.6

Distribution since 2014
100+ - 23.53%
90-99 â€" 22.06%
80-89 â€" 20.59%
-80 â€" 33.82%

Expected average 80-83
Starting Price - $277,100
Expected Average Price - $450,000
Possible Price gain - $129,000 (25% discount for non max onsale price)

Possible Rookie Average - 70
Rookie Starting Price - $150,000 (Approx)
Expected Average Price - $390,000
Possible Price Gain - $180,000 (25% discount for non max onsale price)

Is he a keeper - NO

Outcome
Gain 10-13 points per game for 12 rounds (Essentially until byes)
Cost $127k over a rookie.
Loss of $50k on price increases.
Do you save a trade - NO

So how many extra points can you get for $127k (Based on pricing taking a 530k player over a $400k player should gain you closer to 20 points) + how many extra points will an extra $50k get you after trades?
To make it worthwhile he would need to average 90 and turn into a premium, something i see as a 15-20% chance.

This is a very clear no for me.

Outstanding analysis LS, you've nailed it. Won't be selecting Birchall.

[crowls]

Grant Birchall 277k would be hard not to consider. Even more so if you could sneak him in as a D5

Will be in my first draft. How long he stays in there is the question.

My Take on Birchall

Gonna be 30 at the start of the season.
Take out his injury interrupted 6 and he averaged 77 last year.
Has declined in scoring for 5 straight years from a peak of 94.6

Distribution since 2014
100+ - 23.53%
90-99 â€" 22.06%
80-89 â€" 20.59%
-80 â€" 33.82%

Expected average 80-83
Starting Price - $277,100
Expected Average Price - $450,000
Possible Price gain - $129,000 (25% discount for non max onsale price)

Possible Rookie Average - 70
Rookie Starting Price - $150,000 (Approx)
Expected Average Price - $390,000
Possible Price Gain - $180,000 (25% discount for non max onsale price)

Is he a keeper - NO

Outcome
Gain 10-13 points per game for 12 rounds (Essentially until byes)
Cost $127k over a rookie.
Loss of $50k on price increases.
Do you save a trade - NO

So how many extra points can you get for $127k (Based on pricing taking a 530k player over a $400k player should gain you closer to 20 points) + how many extra points will an extra $50k get you after trades?
To make it worthwhile he would need to average 90 and turn into a premium, something i see as a 15-20% chance.

This is a very clear no for me.

Outstanding analysis LS, you've nailed it. Won't be selecting Birchall.

Love reading your analysis LS.  Being non Birchall will be a POD for a select few the way things are going.  Happy to not have him.

[Grufflez]

What if Birchall holds down your D4 tho?
As opposed to a 450k+ player, that money saved goes where...could be spent very wisely or not.
Just don't pick Birch first! see what funds you have left over after all primary targets are picked.
Don't force him in rather see if he fits your teams structure at the end, pure statistics must be noted but many other things come into play.

[Grufflez]

D is the least important line imo i made the mistake of going to expensive down back last year, the points just don't come near the spend
overall.

[crowls]

D is the least important line imo i made the mistake of going to expensive down back last year, the points just don't come near the spend
overall.

Quite right Grufflez.   For many years my starting team only had one >500k starter.  This year I was going to take Doc for the first time and don't need to now.   Laird likely to be only>500k player.    Sifting through Hanley, Hurley(no), Hibberd (probably no), Simpson (likely), Howe, Roberton, Rance, McGovern.    Yeo is probably a no until we find out where he will be spending most of his time.   All I am aiming at is likely 2000 point scorer for a starter.  so a 22 @91 or 21@95 or 20@100 player.    Not that many of them around when you start looking at the stats.   

[SilverLion]

Do you guys think Seedsman will play the full year as Smith's replacement? And if so, could he feasibly average 90+?

[Ricochet]

Do you guys think Seedsman will play the full year as Smith's replacement? And if so, could he feasibly average 90+?

I reckon Gibbs may be the one that slots into that role at times

[Money Shot]

Do you guys think Seedsman will play the full year as Smith's replacement? And if so, could he feasibly average 90+?

I think it is a possibility. I will be watching him in the JLT for sure. Has shown he can score well in the past. Would expect an 80-85 average however.

[TomK]

Do you guys think Seedsman will play the full year as Smith's replacement? And if so, could he feasibly average 90+?

no

[RaisyDaisy]

What the hell am I missing?

I'm seeing so many teams with Ah Chee in them

WTF?  :o