Thinking about 2018

[RaisyDaisy]

Magpie Taylor Adams, who was the second-top scoring defender of 2017, is available for selection as a midfielder only next year.

Top-scoring forward Jack Macrae has also lost his dual-position status and can only be picked in the midfield.

Jack Steele (mid only), Jake Lloyd (defender only) and Lions pair Alex Witherden (defender only) and Jarrod Berry (mid only) are among the other players to lose DPP eligibility for 2018.

And we’ll have to find a new ruck strategy with former ruck-forwards Toby Nankervis and Paddy Ryder now only available as rucks. Even Docker Luke Strnadica, who didn’t play a game but was a popular bench option, has lost his DPP eligibility.

There are also a number of pure position changes.

Elliot Yeo was classified as a mid-forward last season and averaged 103 points. Next year he is a defender.

Kangaroo Shaun Higgins has moved from a forward to a midfielder, ex-defender Zak Jones is also a midfielder and Blues recruit Matthew Kennedy may have lost some of his appeal after Champion Data changed his position from forward to midfielder.

One move SuperCoach players won’t mind is Port Adelaide star Robbie Gray. A former popular selection as a mid-forward, Gray slipped off the fantasy radar as a mid-only in 2017. But he is set to return with a bang next year after being classified as a forward.

The ranks of new dual-position players are headed by Geelong’s Sam Menegola, who averaged 100 points a game as a midfielder in 2017 and can now be picked as a mid-forward.

Chad Wingard, Travis Boak, Isaac Heeney, Will Setterfield and Michael Barlow may all attract interest as new mid-forwards, along with veterans Dale Thomas, Daniel Wells and David Mundy.

Surprise Carlton recruit Jarrod Garlett is set to be a popular pick after being classified as a mid-forward.

Another player with added flexibility is Docker Michael Walters, who averaged 111 points during a nine-week purple patch from Rounds 7-16 last year. He’s a mid-forward for 2018.

SuperCoach players committed to a ruck-forward swing can look to Demon Cam Pedersen, Collingwood big man Mason Cox â€" flagged for a more prominent role next year by coach Nathan Buckley â€" and Bulldog Tim English.

There are also plenty of DPP rookies including Tigers Jack Higgins and Patrick Naish (mid-forwards), Magpie Nathan Murphy (defender-forward), Carlton’s Lochie O’Brien (defender-mid), Lachlan Keeffe (defender-forward), Port Adelaide’s draft steal Sam Hayes (ruck-forward) and Brisbane academy star Connor Ballenden (forward-defender).

And SuperCoaches will be relieved to note Luke Dahlhaus, Jordan de Goey and late-season bench saviour Tarir Bayok have all retained mid-forward status for 2018.

[LordSneeze]

So Yeo to be a lock in defence this year?

[PiPies]

So Yeo to be a lock in defence this year?

Is for me. Priddis and Mitchell hanging up the boots should mean a similar role with maybe more mid minutes. Those type of defenders are hard to ignore.

[GoLions]

Do not fret though

http://dreamteamtalk.com/2017/12/01/2018-afl-fantasy-positions/

Lists him as a m/f

Yes!

[RaisyDaisy]

Team Picker is open for SC Gold members!

[RaisyDaisy]

Gawn 503k and NicNat 465k will be a very popular set and forget

[Money Shot]

Gawn 503k and NicNat 465k will be a very popular set and forget

With Timmy English as the back up.

[AaronKirk]

Grant Birchall 277k would be hard not to consider. Even more so if you could sneak him in as a D5

[Money Shot]

Grant Birchall 277k would be hard not to consider. Even more so if you could sneak him in as a D5

Will be in my first draft. How long he stays in there is the question.

[kilbluff1985]

which rookies are ppl looking at from North with the rebuild

[Gigantor]

which rookies are ppl looking at from North with the rebuild

I heard that Hartung kid has an elite kick :)

[Gigantor]

Interesting, the magic number went up from 5440 to 5498 which means all of the 2017 players are more expensive
But the top 20 rookies are noticeably cheaper for 2018

2017 #1 McGrath 211800
2018 #2 Rayner 202800

2017 #10 Bowes 171300
2018 #10 O'Brien 162300

2017 #20 Cumming 126300
2018 #20 Coleman-J 117300

[LordSneeze]

Grant Birchall 277k would be hard not to consider. Even more so if you could sneak him in as a D5

Will be in my first draft. How long he stays in there is the question.

My Take on Birchall

Gonna be 30 at the start of the season.
Take out his injury interrupted 6 and he averaged 77 last year.
Has declined in scoring for 5 straight years from a peak of 94.6

Distribution since 2014
100+ - 23.53%
90-99 â€" 22.06%
80-89 â€" 20.59%
-80 â€" 33.82%

Expected average 80-83
Starting Price - $277,100
Expected Average Price - $450,000
Possible Price gain - $129,000 (25% discount for non max onsale price)

Possible Rookie Average - 70
Rookie Starting Price - $150,000 (Approx)
Expected Average Price - $390,000
Possible Price Gain - $180,000 (25% discount for non max onsale price)

Is he a keeper - NO

Outcome
Gain 10-13 points per game for 12 rounds (Essentially until byes)
Cost $127k over a rookie.
Loss of $50k on price increases.
Do you save a trade - NO

So how many extra points can you get for $127k (Based on pricing taking a 530k player over a $400k player should gain you closer to 20 points) + how many extra points will an extra $50k get you after trades?
To make it worthwhile he would need to average 90 and turn into a premium, something i see as a 15-20% chance.

This is a very clear no for me.

[RaisyDaisy]

Good analysis LD, but I think we have to give him a little leeway as he has been dealing with injuries for a few years now

If he is fit, and I mean 100% fit then I think I'll start him

A lot will depend on how many rookies are available round 1 etc to determine what structure I can go with, but he is definitely in for now

With Gibbo and Hodge gone too, he could definitely be their general down back

The hope would be that he turns into a D6 keeper, but we need to factor in his JS too because we know def rookies can be dropped any week, so that added security also adds to his worth

[quinny88]

Grant Birchall 277k would be hard not to consider. Even more so if you could sneak him in as a D5

Will be in my first draft. How long he stays in there is the question.

My Take on Birchall

Gonna be 30 at the start of the season.
Take out his injury interrupted 6 and he averaged 77 last year.
Has declined in scoring for 5 straight years from a peak of 94.6

Distribution since 2014
100+ - 23.53%
90-99 â€" 22.06%
80-89 â€" 20.59%
-80 â€" 33.82%

Expected average 80-83
Starting Price - $277,100
Expected Average Price - $450,000
Possible Price gain - $129,000 (25% discount for non max onsale price)

Possible Rookie Average - 70
Rookie Starting Price - $150,000 (Approx)
Expected Average Price - $390,000
Possible Price Gain - $180,000 (25% discount for non max onsale price)

Is he a keeper - NO

Outcome
Gain 10-13 points per game for 12 rounds (Essentially until byes)
Cost $127k over a rookie.
Loss of $50k on price increases.
Do you save a trade - NO

So how many extra points can you get for $127k (Based on pricing taking a 530k player over a $400k player should gain you closer to 20 points) + how many extra points will an extra $50k get you after trades?
To make it worthwhile he would need to average 90 and turn into a premium, something i see as a 15-20% chance.

This is a very clear no for me.

Didn't get to play his usual game with all the injuries Hawthorn had in defence though.
If he stays injury free he could easily average 90+ and be a keeper at D6.

At the moment I have Yeo, Laird, Hibberd, Birchall, O'Shea, Richards, Doedee, Murray