WXVs Trade Confabulation 2017

[Ricochet]

To those involved in the Rocky and Ablett trades

Care to provide a bit of context around how you break the value of each component down? Because as far as I can see it's Rocky for Weits + Wood + Greenwood and Ablett for JOM + 11. The rest is meaningless fluff, so would be good to hear your assessments and thoughts because you haven't given any, and I'm sure the additional will help :)

Yeh i see it as Rocky for Weits and Greenwood. Wood for Himmelberg and PSD8.

Would also like a breakdown on the Ablett one please Ada and Levi

[RaisyDaisy]

Yeah it's interesting that we see things differently, so it just shows how important it is to provide information when posting trades

Himmelberg has never played a game of AFL and I can't see that happening anytime soon which is why it's hard for me think he  is worth anything, where as Wood has shown that when fit he's easily best 22 and can score well

[Ricochet]

Yeah it's interesting that we see things differently, so it just shows how important it is to provide information when posting trades

Himmelberg has never played a game of AFL and I can't see that happening anytime soon which is why it's hard for me think he  is worth anything, where as Wood has shown that when fit he's easily best 22 and can score well

Yeh that's it.
Dunno about Wood tho, 25 next year and only went at a 64ave.

[Holz]

To those involved in the Rocky and Ablett trades

Care to provide a bit of context around how you break the value of each component down? Because as far as I can see it's Rocky for Weits + Wood + Greenwood and Ablett for JOM + 11. The rest is meaningless fluff, so would be good to hear your assessments and thoughts because you haven't given any, and I'm sure the additional will help :)

Yeh i see it as Rocky for Weits and Greenwood. Wood for Himmelberg and PSD8.

Would also like a breakdown on the Ablett one please Ada and Levi

ok so its certainly not Wood for PSD8 + Himmelberg.

PSD8 and Himmelberg where tiny things that where just added on as my list size is smaller. Himmelberg was given as a list of guys he didnt needed or might be delisted. PSD8 is unlikely to be even used by Jroo so the trade is Weits + Wood + Greenwood for Rocky.

So to break it down.

How i do my analysis on players is i look for trends both in their analytics and also expert reports on them.

Jacob Weitering has all the hall marks of a future premo CHB. He was not only a number 1 draft pick but a consensus number 1 draft pick. He has shown amazing maturity and leadership while displaying great AFL superstar potential at this early age. When it comes to KPD what you want to see is a guy who has a high ceiling but throws in a few stinkers, as they develop the stinkers become good games and then they have more and more premo scores.

KPD do take time but Weits has been able to put up these score 87 129 121 85 94 102 108 89 113 that shows he has premo ability. He also ended the year with a 93 average in his last month. He has all the hallmarks of Rance 2.0 but honestly beats him in every category at the same age.

This is like when i traded Docherty i know i was giving away a future sun, it could be next year like Rance did or it could be the year after or even worse case 3 years from now, but every single indicator points to him being a premo defender. 

Hugh Greenwood: Now he is a unique guy as he was an amazing AFl talent before deicding to play basketball. Has only had 1 year as a full time AFL player and was able to put up 85 average with only 65% TOG. He is just about to enter prime age and as he builds up a tank who knows what he can do with 75-80% TOG. All the people i have spoken too have said DPP as he lines up on a HFF most of the time, his heat map indicates that.


Mason Wood: Has tremendous upside i have chased him for three years, has only just turned 24. He was able to put up 82 in 2016 and even then he wasnt 100%. He hasnt got his body right unfortunately but he is fully fit at the moment (certainly fitter then Rocky in his arm sling). He can score as he drifts up ground and wins the ball as seen in round 7 and 9 with 40 touches, 14 marks, 7 tackles and 5 goals 6 in those 2 games. Talk to any north man and they rate him, as steak knives he is very low risk as he didnt cost much but huge reward. If he gets his body right he would be a starter in any WXV team.

Summary: So essentially a very young defender who at worst i predict 80-85 for 10 years at best Rance 2.0 or better + a entering prime forward who with 65% TOG  was still a low end F2 or high end F3 then a speculative young forward who if he gets his body right is a forward starter.




Rocky: The truth is Rocky can not be trusted to play a full season. He has missed 17 games in the last 4 years, had a few where he was injured early and then 10+ where he was playing hampered by injury. Thats 25%+ of the time he is not playing or playing through a noticeable injury. The reason i got him is obvious if you have him the other 70% of the time then he pumps out a 110-115 average and im crossing my fingers that is the last 4 weeks of the season. He of course can go berserk for a month or two and put up crazy numbers aswell.


Im looking at this deal similar to when i gave Docherty + hogan for Walters + Darling. I know in the long run i will get masacred but this trade could give me a flag if im lucky enough that Rocky is healthy for finals. I can take the risk as i can make finals without Rocky.

[Holz]

Yeah it's interesting that we see things differently, so it just shows how important it is to provide information when posting trades

Himmelberg has never played a game of AFL and I can't see that happening anytime soon which is why it's hard for me think he  is worth anything, where as Wood has shown that when fit he's easily best 22 and can score well

Yeh that's it.
Dunno about Wood tho, 25 next year and only went at a 64ave.

good points.

Rocky is 28 next year and averaged only 96. Greenwood is turning 26 and averaged 85 but is a forward.

Rocky for Greenwood straight swap seems fair based on that rationality.

[Ricochet]

Yeah it's interesting that we see things differently, so it just shows how important it is to provide information when posting trades

Himmelberg has never played a game of AFL and I can't see that happening anytime soon which is why it's hard for me think he  is worth anything, where as Wood has shown that when fit he's easily best 22 and can score well

Yeh that's it.
Dunno about Wood tho, 25 next year and only went at a 64ave.

good points.

Rocky is 28 next year and averaged only 96. Greenwood is turning 26 and averaged 85 but is a forward.

Rocky for Greenwood straight swap seems fair based on that rationality.

Holz pls ::)

[Holz]

Yeah it's interesting that we see things differently, so it just shows how important it is to provide information when posting trades

Himmelberg has never played a game of AFL and I can't see that happening anytime soon which is why it's hard for me think he  is worth anything, where as Wood has shown that when fit he's easily best 22 and can score well

Yeh that's it.
Dunno about Wood tho, 25 next year and only went at a 64ave.

good points.

Rocky is 28 next year and averaged only 96. Greenwood is turning 26 and averaged 85 but is a forward.

Rocky for Greenwood straight swap seems fair based on that rationality.

Holz pls ::)

Hey i dont agree with the reasoning, im just going by you :P

How about the 82 average from Wood the year before.

65 in year 1
67 in year 2 (unsubbed)
84 in year 3

then had a down year.

[Ricochet]

Yeah it's interesting that we see things differently, so it just shows how important it is to provide information when posting trades

Himmelberg has never played a game of AFL and I can't see that happening anytime soon which is why it's hard for me think he  is worth anything, where as Wood has shown that when fit he's easily best 22 and can score well

Yeh that's it.
Dunno about Wood tho, 25 next year and only went at a 64ave.

good points.

Rocky is 28 next year and averaged only 96. Greenwood is turning 26 and averaged 85 but is a forward.

Rocky for Greenwood straight swap seems fair based on that rationality.

Holz pls ::)

Hey i dont agree with the reasoning, im just going by you :P

How about the 82 average from Wood the year before.

65 in year 1
67 in year 2 (unsubbed)
84 in year 3

then had a down year.

Lol I'm not going to get into it about Wood Holz, like you said he's steak knives


Reality is it's a key defender who went at pick 8 in WXVs which is what counts here, not pick 1. He may play like Rance, but its extremely unlikely he scores consistently like him. History show's that.

Even if he does, its an 85-90ish averaging key defender for most of his career. It's not THAT valuable.

And at the moment he's just a 60ish defender who won't even start for you when Birchall returns.


Rocky is up there as one of the best scorers in the comp. He was going at 123ave before his shoulder.



So as it stands you're only really giving up one 85 starter and a depth youngster for one of the best scorers in the comp...

[Holz]

So as it stands you're only really giving up one 85 starter and a depth youngster for one of the best scorers in the comp...

Who cares where weits was drafted 2 years ago. I had him 4th in that draft and he has exceeded my expectations. KPD take time, what more do you want to see from a a 20 year old KPD.

he went 68 in his first year and then backed it up with another 68 when he was actually play in his defender role. He has 9 85+ scores in his first 2 years so he can certainly score. Weits as a depth youngster is an insult.

If Taranto who has shown far less can get a 95 average Ruck (who plays 20+ games every year) then you can easily say im giving up a 95 average ruck + a 85 average forward + a guy who has late 1st round value for a Star yes.



Rocky has missed 17 games and averaged 103 in the games he has played in the last 3 years. Im not guying to pay 123 average, 20+ games a year price for him, as thats not who he is.

[RaisyDaisy]

Buenos Aires trade: Scott Pendlebury, Daniel Gorringe + Pick 32
Toronto trade: Travis Boak, Taylor Walker + Darcy Parish

Pendles vs Rocky is a close enough comparison

Based off that:
Parish vs Weits
Boak vs Greenwood
Tex vs Wood

Gorringe + 32 just as useless as Himmel + PSD8

I'm just referencing this trade for something to help the decision making process

[Adamant]

Just on the Ablett trade.

Jaeger O'Meara is worth a top 3 pick. The only risk involved with him is injury, but I'm of the belief that Hawthorn wouldn't have paid the price they did for him if they didn't think they could get him right. He's a proven commodity at AFL level. He had 36 disposals in round 2 after having two seasons out of the game. He came back for the last two rounds after another huge injury layoff and was in the best three players on the ground in round 23 (25 disposals, 11 tackles). Dude can play.

Ablett is just as big an injury risk so you could say the injury issues are cancelled out.

You can call the rest of the players meaningless fluff but it was only two seasons ago that Marco Paparone averaged 77 as a 21yo defender. His last two seasons have been destroyed by injury and form. There's talk he may request a trade back to WA for more opportunity which would increase his value significantly. Laugh at me all you want but Joel Hamling is one of the few key defenders that could become SC relevant with his huge tank and ability to roll off his opponent and spread (ask Levi I was trying to keep him out of the deal).

Even if you don't rate these guys at all and we assign them picks 35 each:

N3 + N35
FOR
N10(?) + N11

Is very reasonable.

[Holz]

Buenos Aires trade: Scott Pendlebury, Daniel Gorringe + Pick 32
Toronto trade: Travis Boak, Taylor Walker + Darcy Parish

Pendles vs Rocky is a close enough comparison

Based off that:
Parish vs Weits
Boak vs Greenwood
Tex vs Wood

Gorringe + 32 just as useless as Himmel + PSD8

I'm just referencing this trade for something to help the decision making process

its a good post but

Pendles = Rocky is mile off

at the time of the trade they where basically same age.

Pendles had gone 129 125 127 125 116 118 and missed 5 gamed in the last 6 years.
Rocky has gone 97 110 132 102 111 97 and missed 17 games in the last 4 years.

Pendles was basically a injury free fully firing Rocky.

The 3 year averages leading into the trade is even worse. Rocky 103 v Pendles 120.

You cant value Rocky at 100% of his upside.

I dont think the comparison is even close.

[Ricochet]

Thanks Ada :)

Buenos Aires trade: Scott Pendlebury, Daniel Gorringe + Pick 32
Toronto trade: Travis Boak, Taylor Walker + Darcy Parish

Pendles vs Rocky is a close enough comparison

Based off that:
Parish vs Weits
Boak vs Greenwood
Tex vs Wood

Gorringe + 32 just as useless as Himmel + PSD8

I'm just referencing this trade for something to help the decision making process

Yeh a close enough comparison RD. Two decent starters and a young gun for a gun scorer of Pendles quality is reasonable. Rocky obviously not quite at Pendles durability level, but scoring wise he is right up there with the best

And Holz we know Rocky is more injury prone than Pendles, but you cannot deny his scoring ability.


Rocky's last 4 years have been:
131
101 and was knocked out for 0, without it he went 109
111
and 120 before his shoulder this year

131, 109, 111, 120*

Can't deny that scoring ability mate

[RaisyDaisy]

Deep breathe guys, deep breathe ;)

I never had a go at any of the trades or said they were good/bad

I simply asked for your reasoning as it was not mentioned when posting, and as they are pretty significant trades a little info is all I wanted :)

TBH, I don't see either teams getting ripped off or losing majorly, therefore they pass for me

The teams challenging for a flag definitely get a boost to personal, but the teams rebuilding also do very well too so as easy as it is just to look at the short term, I'm factoring in the long term too

Rocky and GAJ are two of the best, but it's no real secret that GAJ doesn't have much time left and Rocky has his question marks too, so when everything is considered and balanced out although I don't want to see Dublin and Toronto land these two for obvious reasons, I can''t see enough of a reason to neg them personally, although I could be persuaded :P

[meow meow]

Soon Holz will be saying Gibbs > Rocky