WXV Round 17: Royal & Armadillo Light at Tunnel-End

Started by Purple 77, July 25, 2017, 09:47:08 PM

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Purple 77

Normal week for our final Home & Away matches of 2017!

Round 17, AFL Round 19











Home Team                             Away Team                             Venue                                                                                 Head-to-Head
Tokyo SamuraiCape Town CobrasTokyo Olympic Stadium1  v  4
Dublin DestroyersBeijing ThunderCrooke Park, EurAsia3  v  2
PNL ReindeersCairo SandsStade du Ray2  v  3
New Delhi TigersNew York RevolutionWipro Stadium2  v  3
Mexico City SunsSeoul MagpiesFireball Stadium4  v  1
Pacific IslandersLondon RoyalsBSP Stadium3  v  2
Berlin BrewersRio de Janeiro JaguarsBerlin Olympic Stadium1  v  1
Buenos Aires ArmadillosMoscow SpetsnazEstadio de River4  v  3
Christchurch SaintsToronto WolvesAMI Stadium, AAP Alliance2  v  0

Yep, this was a disappointing season for Tokyo. Although starting brightly at 2-1 and with four 130+ scores in the first five Rounds, it was all downhill from there, losing 12 of its proceeding 13 matches. But, the last two weeks have been encouraging from the Samurai with respectable 130+ scores against Dublin & Beijing. If they were to replicate that scoreline just once more against Cape Town, they'll have a real shot a victory and end their season on a high. But if they do... they will no longer be eligible for an end-of-first round priority pick. It's a win-win, or a lose-lose, depending on how you look at it. The Cobras enter this round  sitting 15th on both the real and points ladder; a good reflection of its under-performing midfield for season 2017. However, like the Samurai, their form of late (which includes four 130+ scores in the past 5 weeks) has been encouraging and has the real potential to build momentum for the upcoming pre-season. They won't play finals, but it'd be a realistic objective for 2018 if they can nail a few trades and make good use of their first draft pick which will fall in the top 5. It's been a pleasure as always Tokyo & Cape Town, and we will see you next year. For now, I'm backing the Samurai in this one!

A tempter for my MOTR, but not quite getting the gong. This is a real interesting match for Dublin who, despite currently 3rd and with a slight chance to finish 2nd, wants to finish 4th to face their chirpy modern day rival in New Delhi in a qualifying final next week. If Dublin lose here, and it's entirely possible, Pacific win (likely) and New York lose to New Delhi (very possible), then the Destroyers will get their wish. However, if they lose and both New York & Pacific win, they'll slip out of the 4. Regardless, Dublin has churned out yet another imposing Home & Away season which, although hasn't reached the heights of 2014-2016, will give it a red hot chance at taking out the premiership. In terms of scoring, you could say the same thing about Beijing. But, the football gods don't want this to happen yet, with the Thunder being on the end of simply incredibly losing results on a consistent basis, evident by their final-2 placing in the World Idol! Although a consolation prize, it would still be a fantastic achievement so the Thunder have PLENTY to play for and will be looking to go big against Idol-adversary Seoul. It's a real shame we won't see this team feature in finals, but we fully expect them to next year, because as Seoul has shown, the tide will turn. Adios Beijing, but I'm backing you guys to finish with a big win here.

Another tempter for MOTR, but again, just falling short. Both of these teams sit equal 8th with three other teams, but are behind all of them in percentage. The Reindeers started this year reminiscent of last season, where an awful scoreline inspired a mammoth mid-season turnaround to eventually see them make finals. But, without some of 2016's stars and the continued absence of Cyril Rioli, the poor performances have been dreadful, and the good ones are less consistent. It's likey PNL won't make finals, as they would have to win by like 300 SC points and for Christchurch to just beat Toronto. The same outlook applies to Cairo; the team once in the top 4 and 8-3 only to lose the next 5 games to quality opponents. Regardless of whether the Sands make the finals or not, this season has gone above and beyond expectations... the team the won the spoon last year, received Pick 2 as a PP (and DIDN'T TRADE EITHER OF THEM) made the top 4 at Round 11 for goodness sake! NigeLazer will certainly be nominated for Coach of The Year. I'm predicted neither of these teams to make finals, so on that note, I pay the farewell and all the best with the upcoming trade period. Cairo to end the year on a high for me.

The Tigers - our minor premiers - have been the dominant team of the Home & Away season to see their #1 points ranking rightfully book themselves a home qualifying final. Where this time last year they needed to make one last push to make finals, they have set themselves up for success and have established the mental advantage on all but New York (TBC), Dublin and Moscow. However, they're about to learn that their H&A achievements will become irrelevant in one weeks' time and that WXVs is basically determined by the roll of a dice in the final 4 weeks of August. Their opponents, New York, won't mind this fact, given they've had a fortunate but well managed run to finals where they are still yet to win the respect of a few of the big boys. I for one simply can't ignore the Revolutions' past two performances; evidence that they have timed their season to perfection and are ready to peak at the time of the year where it matters most. But gee, they need Tippett to come back. This week is almost all about wanting Sam Naismith to have a poor game. Congratulations to both on dominant H&A seasons, and I look forward to seeing you both back next week! New Delhi for me.

Last week might have just spelt the end for the Suns. That loss to the Royals highlighted just how much this team has lost from its dominant years with their age profile finally catching up with them. Sitting in 8th spot with four teams breathing down their necks, the Suns MUST win this game to make finals, where, given the form of Seoul... really makes losing to London hurt so much more. I’ve talked about it for much of the season, but Mexico City’s year has been littered with typical performances amongst a team in need of rejuvenation to recapture that dominant consistency. The Old Mexico City will win this game, and if they do, will deserve to play finals. The Magpies on the eve of making their first ever finals appearance and boy, is it deserved. After coming heartbreakingly close in 2012 and 2016, this Dangerfield led team is arguably New Delhi’s biggest threat where, in my view, clearly join them in the top two teams of the competition. Seoul’s starting XV might not be as spread out as its peers, but given that their lowest score in the past 9 weeks has been 142...  KeliveField seems incapable of letting them down. This week, they fight to consolidate a home qualifying final as well as the World Idol, but a magnificent season has already achieved. I cannot wait to see what they do in their first finals series. I’m tipping a farewell to Mexico City, and a supercharged Seoul waiting to play for the premiership.

The Islanders have lost four games when they’ve score 140+. So really, it’s fair enough that they get at least one back with a win from 124 against a team hoping to play finals. Despite the win, it was their lowest score of the season (seeing them exit World Idol) and to occur in Round 16, is only raising big concerns heading into their third and consecutive finals series. This season has seen the Islanders establish themselves as consistent force to be reckoned with and really, could be a smoky for the premiership. A top 4 placement is still possible for this team, with New York & Dublin both genuine chances to lose. Should that happen, they’ll play either Dublin or Seoul as the away team first up; neither a pretty picture. However, the rewards of winning that clash are enormous especially if they win, but even if they lose they would still be favourites to make a prelim. The Royals have experienced a year quite similar to 2016 in that they never really got going â€" grabbing a win here and there â€" but a lack of midfield power continues to condemn them to regular sub-130s. If this team were to get on the front foot of trading and do so aggressively, you would see them challenge for the eight next year. However, if this team is still patient enough to keep building youth, I fear another year like this one awaits them. Don’t be patient anymore, because wins like last week against Mexico City show that this team has the heart to take a big step and I implore them to do so. For now, goodbye London and all the best for the coming trade season, whilst at Pacific, I look forward to seeing what you can do next week. Islanders for me.

Thought about this one for MOTR as well, but think there is just one more match with higher stakes. flower last week hey? I cannot believe I was lucky enough to get Pacific on their lowest total of the year, only for me to choke and score even lower. The Berlin season has been a bit of a rollercoaster, with that mid-season being notably depressing. Wins against Seoul (170) & Dublin (156) are proof that we can cause damage in finals, but (I daresay the most I’ve had since 2012) 6 scores below 130 also suggest the Brewers would just be making up the numbers. Berlin are no guarantees to make finals, but with a favourable percentage over the challengers from 8th-12th, I’m optimistic that even if I lose this game, I should still scrape home. With the bullshower of Gawn & Spencer going down behind me, I’m hopeful Fyfe & Libba can get their shower together for the next 5 weeks and go deep into finals, even if I’m travelling in all of them. The Jaguars share the win/loss ratio with Berlin but don’t have as comfortable a percentage lead, and are in real danger of slipping at the last hurdle of the finals race. Although still a chance to make finals with a loss here, the absence of GAJ & Cripps pose significant challenges for the reigning premiers, who this time last year had Cripps inspire his GAJ-less team to a premiership.  Rio was a dominant force in the first 9 rounds of this season, but have had injuries hold them back since. Is there another that can stand up and deliver for this team? I’m not sure I believe this time, but then again I didn’t last year either. I’ll back my Brewers to bounce back from that horse shower performance and claim 6th spot.

In the last two weeks, Buenos Aires scored their 3rd highest and 4th highest scores of the year. These were 124 and 129. Look, I really admire the Dillos for making one last push to salvage something from the year, but they probably won’t â€" it’ll get given to them instead â€" the wooden spoon. All of us, Buenos Aires included, thought yep, trading Pendles is gonna make 2017 a little harder, but not THAT much harder. The Dillos were pretty unlucky really with injuries to Edwards, Elliott and Bennell deciding matches before they even started for the most part. But armed with Picks 1, 19 and (probably) 21 and some tasty players, I expect nothing but an aggressive trade period from VinZander and follow the path of New Delhi, Toronto and Cairo before them. The Spetsnaz had a similar sort of this season compared to last, in that their key premium players were missing for almost all of it. Hogan, JOM, NN and Coniglio were unavailable for large chunks (if not all) of the season and really, you’d be forgiven for throwing in the towel. But Moscow didn’t want to do that again. I don’t think I’ve ever been so impressed by a string of 130+ scores than I have been with Moscow from Round 6 this year; only failing to score sub-130 three times in the proceeding 10 games.  This netted them a 5-5 win/loss record that claimed the likes of Rio, flowerin New Delhi and Mexico City; proof that this level of output on a regular basis gives you a solid foundation to make a charge at finals. The Spetsnaz will be much better next year with these key men (hopefully) available for all of it, and the comp should be wary of them. But for now, farewell to both Moscow and Buenos Aires, and I wish you all the best in the upcoming trade season. Moscow for me.

Our last game of the H&A season rings my contest bell for the MATCH OF THE ROUND! The Saints season has been a funny one to see from a distance â€" not haha funny â€" but odd. Christchurch are probably the weirdest team in the comp, as they are full of dinosaurs surrounded by really really good no-name youngsters. Despite being no stranger to scoring sub-130s, the Saints have been impressive enough this year to challenge for finals and have been allowed every opportunity in the last 3 weeks to cement their place in them. However, CRUCIAL losses to New York & Cape Town last week (by 2 SC points) may have denied them from a place in finals, where they now MUST win this game to keep their season alive. But it almost seems some sort of divine being is setting Toronto up for a MAGICAL appearance in finals. This time last week, I wrote the Wolves off. Mathematically possible, sure, but so many results had to fall their way that the odds were just too stacked against them, sitting 12th at the time. But cue ALL the teams from 6th to 11th losing and giving them an amazing chance at finals! If Toronto win this game, and Mexico lose it, they will make finals. They might even make it if Mexico City win if they win by enough, but I don’t think that’ll happen. It would be an incredible story and one that I kinda want to happen. Win or lose, the Toronto has been a resounding success having looked a completely different team compared to 2016 and being in the finals conversation up until Round 17. The winner of this game, if we assume Mexico City loses to Seoul, will make finals IMO. Definitely MOTR. Good luck to both! But I think Christchurch win from here.

Purple 77

Not gonna lie, will not be missing typing up 2500 words for another 7-8 months :P

Massive, massive week of Worlds here.

RaisyDaisy

Another sensational write up Purps

There's a chance that after we play NDT this week, we might just book the hotel for another week because we might have a replay at the same venue 7 days later!

We need this win for that to happen. If we lose, we'll likely drop to 5th and lose the double chance - and that would be a real shame considering we've been in the Top 4 all year

meow meow

Quote from: Purple 77 on July 25, 2017, 09:48:25 PM
Not gonna lie, will not be missing typing up 2500 words for another 7-8 months :P

Massive, massive week of Worlds here.

Surely you put in at least double the word count per match next week - it's finals!

Awesome work this year Purps. I'll try to do one round for you next season.

meow meow

Mexico can win, and our match could still decide the 8 if Berlin annihilate Rio's percentage. I think the winner of Cairo/PNL won't be able to catch Rio on %.

RaisyDaisy


Nige


Toga

Have loved the effort all year once again Purps, great job :)

Toga

BEIJING THUNDER:
D: S.Mayes, J.Hunt, H.Taylor, D.Howe
M: L.Neale (C), C.Ward (VC), O.Wines, B.Ellis
R: B.Grundy
F: J.Jenkins, J.Caddy, C.Petracca, B.Hill
IC: K.Lambert, J.Polec

Emg: D.Butler (f), J.Scrimshaw (d), T.Williamson (d/m)

OUT: D.Zorko (suspension)
IN: J.Polec

upthemaidens

       Pacific Islanders 
D: Rory Laird, Michael Hurley, Matt Suckling, Adam Tomlinson(rested)
M: Tom Mitchell(C), Marcus Bontempelli(VC), Andrew Gaff, Andrew Swallow
R: Jarrod Witts
F: Devon Smith, Steven Motlop, Rhys Stanley, Jordan Murdoch
Int: Sam Gibson, Liam Duggan

E: Cam Guthrie, Mitch McGovern, Andy Otten


meow meow

#10
Who replaces Joey?
Do I give the Irish lad a run and pray for the best?
Do I put my faith in Cedric after a big game?
Will Harris back it up?
Do I do the unthinkable and drop Bob after 2 horrid weeks?
Do I trust Lever coming back after 1 week with a hamstring? Will he even play?
Will Wilson burn me like be has for the 2 weeks prior to last week's excellent match for the Weta? 

I won't drop Gibbs, but do I back him in to bounce back and captain him?
Will Connor have a quiet one for the first time in a while or is he the savior?
Will former regular captain Mitchell be well rested and ready to dominate so he gets the C again?
Does Wells even deserve a spot when he's being outscored by the youngsters?
Do I trust the inconsistent Fiorini?
The same question about SPS?
Do I play Steele and/or ANB, in the mids over these guys? Up forward? On the bench?

Darcy picks himself but do I go with Roughead at U2? Has Vardy run his race?

Waite picks himself. As does McLean. Does Higgins?
Will WHE come back in after his enormous game last week?
Will Drew have a big one? He's been good every time he's played for Church.
Do I back in the previously in form Stewart after a poor week.
What the flower more does Ryan Lester have to do to get a game? Is he really that untrustworthy?

We're our opponent this week. Get ourselves right and we'll win. Beat ourselves and who knows what rage trading will happen in the trade period!

RaisyDaisy

Quote from: Purple 77 on July 25, 2017, 09:47:08 PM
The Islanders have lost four games when they’ve score 140+. So really, it’s fair enough that they get at least one back with a win from 124 against a team hoping to play finals. Despite the win, it was their lowest score of the season (seeing them exit World Idol) and to occur in Round 16, is only raising big concerns heading into their third and consecutive finals series. This season has seen the Islanders establish themselves as consistent force to be reckoned with and really, could be a smoky for the premiership. A top 4 placement is still possible for this team, with New York & Dublin both genuine chances to lose. Should that happen, they’ll play either Dublin or Seoul as the away team first up; neither a pretty picture. However, the rewards of winning that clash are enormous especially if they win, but even if they lose they would still be favourites to make a prelim. The Royals have experienced a year quite similar to 2016 in that they never really got going â€" grabbing a win here and there â€" but a lack of midfield power continues to condemn them to regular sub-130s. If this team were to get on the front foot of trading and do so aggressively, you would see them challenge for the eight next year. However, if this team is still patient enough to keep building youth, I fear another year like this one awaits them. Don’t be patient anymore, because wins like last week against Mexico City show that this team has the heart to take a big step and I implore them to do so. For now, goodbye London and all the best for the coming trade season, whilst at Pacific, I look forward to seeing what you can do next week. Islanders for me.

Take note Ringo!

Time to YOLO and make some big moves this trade period!  8)

Adamant

Brilliant work as always Purps.

It's going to be a tough ask without Pendles but we still managed 140 without him last week (which included some selection blunders) so who knows. Christchurch to flower up their selections again.

Purple 77

Quote from: meow meow on July 26, 2017, 01:10:22 AM
Will Drew have a big one? He's been good every time he's played for Church.

I was like, Willem Drew hasn't even played yet.... ohhhhhhh :P

Nige

Quote from: Purple 77 on July 26, 2017, 04:07:38 PM
Quote from: meow meow on July 26, 2017, 01:10:22 AM
Will Drew have a big one? He's been good every time he's played for Church.

I was like, Willem Drew hasn't even played yet.... ohhhhhhh :P
That's because he was taken about 30 picks too early. :P