LaHug's Captains 2017 - Round 18

[LaHug]

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[LaHug]

After missing last week with illness, I'm back. For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week.

The facts & thoughts:

Dangerfield
Last 3: 140, 150, 142 (144 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 131, 118, 129 (126 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 129, 115, 91 (112 avg)

Danger is in incredible form but is he fit? Will he play? We know he can score 140 as a full forward (well, against Hawthorn's backline) but I think, even if playing, the risk is too high. Prediction - 100

Selwood
Last 3: 94, 113, 2 (70 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 117, 106, 82 (102 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 82, 134, 66 (94 avg)

If Danger doesn't play, does Selwood step up? Danger hasn't missed a game as a Cat so we have no evidence either way. My gut says yes but there's not enough form to choose Joel anyway. Prediction - 115

Merrett
Last 3: 144, 105, 78 (109 avg)
Last 3 against North: 143, 81, 68 (97 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 144, 78, 151 (124 avg)

Merrett bounced back with a huge score last week and now plays North, a team he scored 143 against last time, at Etihad where he kills it. Prediction - 140

Gawn
Last 3: 79, 76, 81 (79 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 120, 142, 32 (98 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 76, 81, 95 (84 avg)

Gawn has a great record against Port but those games are both without Ryder. You'd be very brave to back him regardless but Ryder is in doubt this weekend with an ankle injury. If Ryder's out, you can consider Big Max, but avoid otherwise. Prediction - 105

Bontempelli
Last 3: 118, 92, 98 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 107, 129, 57 (98 avg)
Last 3 at Cairns: 107, 129, 57 (98 avg)

Bont is good against the Suns in Cairns. Prediction - 115

Macrae
Last 3: 123, 103, 99 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 95, 143, 168 (135 avg)
Last 3 at Cairns: 95, 143, 168 (135 avg)

Before their last matchup, Macrae had destroyed the Suns twice in Cairns. He's in a rich vein of form right now and you could do much much worse. He's only scored above 130 once this year though. Prediction - 125

Ablett
Last 3: 152, 127, 91 (123 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 119, 78, 135 (111 avg)
Last 3 at Cairns: 119, 106, 128 (118 avg)

GAJ went huge after a week off for a 152. His hamstring is clearly fine and now he plays the Doggies at a ground he's been very good at. Prediction - 130

J.P. Kennedy
Last 3: 92, 100, 118 (103 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 105, 118, 134 (119 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 118, 112, 112 (114 avg)

JPK is good at home and good against the Saints. The concern is that his form has been slightly below what we expected and he had that late withdrawal two weeks ago. Still, assuming he's fit and firing, I'm backing him in. Prediction - 120

Hannebery
Last 3: 112, 83, 51 (82 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 159, 128, 133 (140 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 83, 88, 105 (92 avg)

Hanners has an incredible record against the Saints and has shown an ability to score big this year. He's also shown an ability to suck and is high risk, high reward. Poor in recent times at home but history makes him very tempting. Prediction - 120

Parker
Last 3: 79, 117, 148 (115 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 83, 144, 112 (113 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 117, 100, 108 (108 avg)

Right after it looked like Parker was going to light up the home stretch, he failed to crack the 80 mark. His last matchup against the Saints was similarly disappointing. Before that, the numbers are looking good. I'd put him in the too risky pile based on this year. Prediction - 110

Neale
Last 3: 114, 100, 117 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 108, 62, 74 (81 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 114, 117, 104 (112 avg)

Numbers don't jump out as great but a lot of people want to go with the best mid vs. Hawthorn approach. Of course, with Fyfe coming back to form, Neale might not even be Freo's best mid... Prediction - 100

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 147, 143, 135 (142 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 105, 104 (105 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 105, 41, 74 (73 avg)

Tommy Mitchell is in incredible form right now and is the best player in the comp from a fantasy perspective. If you're concerned about a tag, don't be. Blakely tagged Sloane earlier this year (yes, that guy that can't handle a tag) and Sloane scored 157. I think Mitchell will be fine. Prediction - 140

D. Martin
Last 3: 131, 73, 131 (112 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 122, 132, 74 (109 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 96, 100, 133 (110 avg)

Dusty struggled against the Saints a fortnight ago but that was very true to what history predicted. He bounced back against the Lions and now plays the Giants, a team he loves to play. The Giants are very hard to score against but Dusty is Dusty. Prediction - 120

Treloar
Last 3: 101, 57, 98 (85 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 113, 119, 63 (98 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 93, 134, 128 (118 avg)

Great against West Coast, Treloar will probably have to step up in Pendlebury's absence. His current form is pretty poor though. Prediction - 105

Adams
Last 3: 105, 87, 95 (96 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 140, 99 (120 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 107, 80, 103 (97 avg)

Adams killed the Eagles last time they played and will surely be a key ball-winner for the Pies sans Pendles. However, form says no and I don't want to bet against it at this time of year. Prediction - 110

Gaff
Last 3: 114, 83, 130 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 117, 74, 114 (102 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 130, 95, 144 (123 avg)

I chose very wrong in the Shuey vs. Gaff coin flip prior to byes. Gaff, although inconsistent, has been the far better scorer. He's good against the Pies and should be good again this week. Prediction - 115

Zorko
Last 3: 48, 181, 124 (118 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 125, 104, 91 (107 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 181, 45, 131 (119 avg)

I'm calling it. Zorko will be tagged and it will hurt. Teams watched as Sloane couldn't handle a tag and now teams are learning that Zorko can't either. With Brisbane short on experience, tagging Zorko gives you a certain win. Unless the Blues are tanking, expect Curnow or Kerridge to shut him down. Prediction - 80

Gibbs
Last 3: 113, 117, 160 (130 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 76, 58, 103 (79 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 76, 67, 84 (76 avg)

Gibbs is still in hot form, even if the last two haven't cracked the 120 mark. However, he's poor against the Lions and very poor in Brisbane. On form alone, I'll give him a ton, but it might be a week to stay away. Prediction - 105

Docherty
Last 3: 111, 152, 132 (132 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 74, 85, 72 (77 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 74, 72, 105 (84 avg)

Very poor history against the Lions and at the Gabba but, with the year he's having, and the incredibly high floor, he has to make the top 5 every week. Prediction - 120

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, because of stats and/or gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Rockliff
Last 3: 70, 91, 90 (84 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 174, 184, 143 (167 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 91, 96, 95 (94 avg)

How big are your balls? Rocky hasn't cracked the ton since the byes, making it six straight weeks. However, his three game average against the Blues is a ludicrous 167. Carlton will pay Zorko all the attention, leaving Rocky to do whatever he wants. Wanna take a punt on the week he'll bounce back? It's this week. Gutsy prediction - 160

The verdict:
1.   T. Mitchell (140)

2.   Merrett (140)
3.   Ablett (130)
4.   Macrae (125)
5.   Docherty (120)

[fanTCfool]

I think we'll leave Zorko off the chain, Ed Curnow is still out through injury and Kedge hasn't played a negating role very often of late.

[Thunderbolts]

Titch for me this week...

[Mongoose528]

Titch for me this week...

Titch for me this week every week...

[LaHug]

I think we'll leave Zorko off the chain, Ed Curnow is still out through injury and Kedge hasn't played a negating role very often of late.

Tagged Sloane in Round 15 which wasn't that long ago...

[fanTCfool]

I think we'll leave Zorko off the chain, Ed Curnow is still out through injury and Kedge hasn't played a negating role very often of late.

Tagged Sloane in Round 15 which wasn't that long ago...

Kerridge never played for Brisbane  ;)

[LaHug]

I think we'll leave Zorko off the chain, Ed Curnow is still out through injury and Kedge hasn't played a negating role very often of late.

Tagged Sloane in Round 15 which wasn't that long ago...

Kerridge never played for Brisbane  ;)

Huh? Blues played Adelaide in Round 15 and Kerridge tagged Sloane

[Chelskiman]

Either Titch or Zerrett.  I think I'll toss a coin.

[Mat0369]

Doc against Brisbane is tempting. I'm tossing up between Mtichell, Merrett and Doc.

[fanTCfool]

Next week on fanTCfool's Captains  ;)

[GoLions]

ZZZZZZZZZZORKOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[pommyadam]

do we need to be weary of the powers of Rocky moving forward?

and not in a good way, he's tagging Gibbs into the ground