WXV Round 14: Tokyo's Karmatic Revenge?

[Purple 77]

Another normal week :)

Round 14, AFL Round 16

Home Team	Away Team	Venue	Head-to-Head
Cape Town Cobras	New Delhi Tigers	Newlands Cricket Ground	4  v  1
Seoul Magpies	Cairo Sands	Seoul World Cup Stadium	4  v  1
London Royals	Beijing Thunder	London Olympic Stadium, EurAsia	3  v  2
Berlin Brewers	Tokyo Samurai	Berlin Olympic Stadium, EurAsia	3  v  2
Moscow Spetsnaz	Dublin Destroyers	Luzhniki Stadium, EurAsia, Europe	1  v  4
PNL Reindeers	Toronto Wolves	State de France	2  v  3
Christchurch Saints	New York Revolution	AMI Stadium, AAP Alliance	2  v  0
Mexico City Suns	Buenos Aires Armadillos	Fireball Stadium, AAP Alliance, Americas	4  v  1
Pacific Islanders	Rio de Janeiro Jaguars	Linkbelt Oval, AAP Alliance	1  v  1

The Cobras are officially back! With three 130+ scores in the past month netting 3 wins, Cape Town has re-entered the land of relevancy and pose a concern to whomever they come up against. Last weeks' score of 141 was their second 140+ score for the year, and we can attribute that to the return to form of the Cobras much maligned midfield (and kudos to Ainsworth bringing home a rising star nom!). The Tigers performed as necessary to account for the injury-struck Sands and would have still trumped the Cobras by 2 SC points last week. The premiership fancies will pretty much go into every one of their matches as favourites; maybe except if they faced Dublin or Seoul as the away team, but they won't have to worry about that as they are sitting pretty 2 games and percentage clear on top of the ladder. With 4 games to go, they only really need to win two more games to win the minor premiership; but be warned, the minor premiers have a 0-5 record when it comes to premierships. Will they be the first to buck the trend? Time will tell. In the mean time, the Tigers to win this one.

I said last week that more than OliveField had to stand up to beat the in-form Beijing last week... I was both kinda right and wrong in that sense, because although Kelly, Haynes, Whitfield, Swallow and Lynch came to the party, it's not often you get 162 with just 6 centurions, but Captain Danger proved you could; and just as well too, because Beijing scored 160 themselves. I've admired Seoul's list from afar since 2014 so I'm gonna go ahead and take credit for their current 2nd placing; anyone that jumps on now is just band-wagoners. The Sands in the meantime - having only been in the top 4 just 2 weeks ago - find themselves just a game clear from those challenging from outside the 8! Captain Beams going down has just had a profound effect on this team, who really needed that win against Christchurch in Round 12. If it was a normal week for Cairo, they actually might have beaten New Delhi last week, and they could have been a chance against Seoul now. But, every team has their injuries... it's just not often their star player. Take Danger out of Seoul, and... well I guess you'd still have Oliver, so yeah, Seoul for me in this one. Dangerous times for Cairo.

The Royals were unlucky last week that they couldn't get a ruck on the field, because they might have otherwise snapped their then  6 game losing streak against Tokyo. But, I suppose that doesn't really excuse the fact that they didn't have ONE player crack the ton last week; a glaring criticism for both Hannebery and Shuey in particular. All the Royals need to focus on is trying to crack the 130+ barrier, something they haven't done since Round 6 of this year. Their opponents Beijing were reknowned back in 2015 for being scarily consistent in the 130-135 range, before slowly increasing that consistency year-by-year. It's the perfect model for London to follow going into the future, but I hope their not discouraged by Beijing's results of this year, because... well, just look at last week, where a score of 160 wasn't enough to get a win. That game seemed to perfectly sum up the Thunder, whose form and apparent turn of luck was seeing them an outside chance to make the finals. They obviously recognised this when they came up against Seoul and lifted for the occasion, because their next 3 matches are all very winnable in London, PNL and Tokyo before coming up against Dublin in the final round. If they won against Seoul, then those 3 matches... they could have gone into Round 17 needed to beat Dublin to make the finals! But alas, it is now officially a stretch to far, where Beijing have now consolidated their title as the 'hard luck story of 2017'. If there ever was a match for London to win this year, this is the one, but Beijing should surely get some respectability on their win/loss record this week.

You know, I am seeing this script starting to surface, and I don't like it ONE BIT! I lost hope of this season when I went down to both Beijing & Cairo in the same week (that Round 11 where Round 9 was finished). I was thinking, you know what? flower this game, flower you Fyfe, Steven and Libba and flower basically everything else. But, after Gawn came back, I had a good game against London to level my ledger at 6-6. Hope remained, but I knew it was unlikely so going into the Dublin match, I was expected a loss and for the season to resume grinding away. But flower me, MICHAEL WALTERS! That was an incredible performance from him to get me a win against Dublin at their home ground, but you know what that has done? Not only has that got me back in the 8, but I actually have some legitimate hope at making finals again! I mean, I'm coming up against 2 of the 3 lowest scoring teams in the comp in the next fortnight! Hope! Hope! But you know what happened next? I saw my opponent was Tokyo this weak. I flashbacked to Parker scoring 160 as captain last year in Round 1 to beat me, only for Tokyo to do fark all for the rest of the year. Then, I remembered ALL of the shower I've flung at Tokyo this year. The Karma gods are coming. This above script is inevitably cruel. The Samurai have also just come off their first win since Round 3 against the Royals and will be looking to back it up against me this week. Luke Parker is also coming back into form, and I just know that JJ and Dahl are due for a blinder... I'm terrified. Please let me win.

Not a week goes by where the Spetsnaz don't fail to surprise me. I keep expected them to hit the wall soon, because how are they scoring so many 130+ scores with so many injuries on their list? The Spetsnaz have been a little unlucky actually, with their last 3 scores of 139, 136 and 137 failing to get them a win. Mathematically, finals are still a remote possibility for this team, it's just they can't afford to lose anymore games this year. Despite Jesse being a good chance to return this week, I'm not sure coming up against Dublin will do there finals hopes any good. The Destroyers have lost their past two games, both of which their opponent has registered 150+. To be honest, in a 5 game stretch where you've averaged 154 ppg, you'd be pretty unluckily to register two losses, and to make matters worse, those losses has seen Dublin fall out of the top 4, despite only marginally being behind New Delhi in the points ladder. The minor premiership seems very unlikely for Dublin, but as I mentioned before, minor premiers are 0-5 for the real premiership, and they'd be looking to replicate 2014 and win it from a place within the top 4. And they're a big chance to do just that. Dublin in this one.

Awww come off it PNL! The Reindeers fourth consecutive win keeps their finals hopes alive after once being 3-6 with a formline that'd make Buenos Aires blush. It's likely that, if the PNL were to make the finals, there percentage won't make 9 wins enough so in these last 4 matches, they'll need to win 3 of them to give them a good shot. And boy, it won't be easy. But if the Reindeers keep up their form of the past 2 matches that has seen them post 140+ scores, they could be in line for one of the most unlikely finals appearances I have ever seen. The Wolves finally had a change in fortune last week, with a low scoring win over top 4 team New York. Despite their 129 being their lowest score since Round 8, the Wolves were able to turn this into a winning score after losing with a 154 just the week before. Finals are still a possibility for this team, but it's likely they'll need to win their remaining 4 matches, or win easily in 3 of them. Christchurch are the highest ranking team (at 10th) of these opponents, so the hope is genuine! Against the Reindeers though, they need to channel their form from Rounds 9-12 to confidently take them down and with Pendles coming off a poor one, I reckon he'll rebound the Wolves to a victory here.

The Saints truly are in a fine bit of form at the moment, where I prompted to continually mention that they are timing their run well in their pursuit of finals. After scoring just one 130+ score in the first 5 rounds, they have only gone below that once since with their biggest score of 148 coming just last week against the Suns. Christchurch sit 10th likely needing at least 3 more wins to give themselves a strong chance at making finals, and they'll go into every one of their matches as favourites or at 50/50 odds. They are just yet another team that has their destiny in their own hands. The Revolution in all sorts at the moment. They backed up their 118 against Cape Town with a 112 against Toronto, and have put their fortunate top 4 placing in real jeopardy. If they lose this match, they could see themselves fall as far as 7th and maybe even have their finals credentials come into question. Jelwood is desperately needed back and Tippett almost equally so, as despite popular opinion might suggest, having an OOP ruck is actually a disadvantage. With the Saints in form, and the Revolution having players drop everywhere, the tip is clear in this one.

In the last 5 weeks, the Suns have averaged 128.4 ppg, to rightfully earn themselves a 1-4 record (courtesy of Kade Simpson). What's going on at the Suns? They are out of the eight! I'd wager, this is the first time they are out of the 8 after... I dunno, Round 4 in any season. Uncharted territory attracts uncharted form, I suppose. Taking a closer look at the Suns, the reasons become obvious, with Rockliff averaging 70 in his last 3, Cotchin 90 in his last 3, Goddard 92 in his last 3,  Riewoldt 73 in his last 3... these traditional superpowers have been letting this traditional superpower club down, and although they certainly can, I'm not sure they'll make finals. Fortunately for the Suns, they'll get a win this week. At the risk of kicking a club whilst they're down, nothing is going well at Buenos Aires and last week was almost rock bottom; scoring their lowest score of the year of 100. The concerning part is is that you can't really see who might stand up and arrest this form... I guess that'll be whatever Pick 1 turns into next year. Over to you, VinZander. Having that currency is actually so much fun.

Nearly went the Christchurch game for the ramifications, but these two clubs promise to put on a show in my MATCH OF THE ROUND! Despite a brief scare that they might not get enough wins, the Islanders, like the Jaguars, seemed to be an expected fixture of the finals and really that has come off the back of two great scores of 150 and 146 in the last two weeks. The Islanders have been know for finding ways to lose, but they are arguably correctly positioned on the ladder as 4th, given they also sit 4th on the points ladder. The Islanders fantastic percentage means they'll probably only need 1 more win to make finals, but 2 more would guarantee it. Their next 3 opponents aren't slouches before they face the struggling Royals, so this game is still important for them to win. The Jaguars sit one place below the Islanders on the points ladder yet 6th on the real one, but their percentage isn't as strong as the Islanders and might need the two more wins to consolidate their place in the finals. They also aren't a guarantee in 3 of their remaining 4 matches, so really, a loss here to either club puts a bit of pressure on the loser. The Jags haven't cracked 140 in a while though, so I think I might back in the Islanders at home in this one.

[Holz]

Alex Rance, Tom McDonald, Oscar McDonald, Jacob Weitering
Rory Sloane, Dustin Martin (CC), Adam Treloar (CC), Brad Crouch
Todd Goldstein
Tom Hawkins, Jack Reiwoldt, Justin Westhoff, Jack Gunston
Stephen Hill, Lachie Plowman

James Parsons, Braydon Preuss, Dan Nielson


Greenwood gone :(

[Nige]

We're so cooked.

[Holz]

To be honest, in a 5 game stretch where you've averaged 154 ppg, you'd be pretty unluckily to register two losses


Wow didnt think i was travelling that good. Not bad with Jones out and Hill out or shocking. 3-2 is tough though.

what have NDT average in the last 5 and what their record purp?

[meow meow]

Griff would have been back this week if he didn't reinjure himself during his rehab. Who knows how far off Wells is. Sandi gone for the season and Waite will miss this week at the absolute least.

#excuses

[RaisyDaisy]

Griff would have been back this week if he didn't reinjure himself during his rehab. Who knows how far off Wells is. Sandi gone for the season and Waite will miss this week at the absolute least.

#excuses

Pretty sure Waite has bee ruled out for 4 weeks

[Holz]

Griff would have been back this week if he didn't reinjure himself during his rehab. Who knows how far off Wells is. Sandi gone for the season and Waite will miss this week at the absolute least.

#excuses

injury prone players are injured :O

poor list management i say.

meanwhile Nathan Jones is missing from my squad after missing 1 game in the previous 7 years.

#realexcuses

[DazBurg]

Purps tips against us again

Cue Reindeer fury ;)

[Nige]

With 4 rounds left, we at Cairo bring you a 4-part series involving none other than Karen. Consider it like one of those choose your own adventure type things but where the weekly results determine what happens next.

Part 1: Karen does some Seoul searching

Taylor Adams (cc), Jeremy McGovern, Dylan Roberton, Eric Mackenzie
Jack Newnes (cc), Rhys Mathieson, Dom Sheed, David Cuningham
Shane Mumford
Koby Stevens, Rory Lobb, Ben Brown, Wylie Buzza
Andrew McGrath, Hugh McCluggage

Jack Lonie, Jason Castagna, Mark Hutchings

Rest: Travis Colyer

[Ricochet]

Griff would have been back this week if he didn't reinjure himself during his rehab. Who knows how far off Wells is. Sandi gone for the season and Waite will miss this week at the absolute least.

#excuses

injury prone players are injured :O

poor list management i say.

meanwhile Nathan Jones is missing from my squad after missing 1 game in the previous 7 years.

#realexcuses

Had to trade Buddy and Roughead because of the cap

#realexcuses

[upthemaidens]

        Pacific Islanders  - Attacking -

D: Rory Laird, Michael Hurley, Matt Suckling
M: Tom Mitchell(C), Marcus Bontempelli(VC), Andrew Gaff, Jarryd Lyons
R: Jarrod Witts
F: Devon Smith(rested), Steven Motlop, Rhys Stanley, Mitch McGovern, Alex Fasolo
Int: Andrew Swallow, Sam Gibson

E: Cameron Guthrie, Jordan Murdoch, Adam Tomlinson

Resting: Lee Spurr

[GoLions]

Kate Upton Cobras

Attacking

DEF: Jasper Pittard, Luke McDonald, Callum Mills
MID: Josh P Kennedy (C), Lachie Hunter, Dion Prestia, Mark Blicavs
RUCK: Toby Nankervis (VC)
FWD: Peter Wright, Tom Papley, Blake Acres, Timothy Broomhead, Ben Ainsworth
UTIL: Kieran Jack, Touk Miller

EMG: Jake Carlisle, Taylor Garner, Mitch Honeychurch

[Holz]

Griff would have been back this week if he didn't reinjure himself during his rehab. Who knows how far off Wells is. Sandi gone for the season and Waite will miss this week at the absolute least.

#excuses

injury prone players are injured :O

poor list management i say.

meanwhile Nathan Jones is missing from my squad after missing 1 game in the previous 7 years.

#realexcuses

Had to trade Buddy and Roughead because of the cap

#realexcuses

its actually true

but I turned Buddy + Roughy + 17 into

Westhoff Greenwood Crouch

Buddy 93 v Westhoff 88
Roughy 80 v Greenwood 88
Venables 0 v Brad Crouch 90

i reckon i came out ok, despite the major reason for the trade being cap reasons.

[Purple 77]

To be honest, in a 5 game stretch where you've averaged 154 ppg, you'd be pretty unluckily to register two losses


Wow didnt think i was travelling that good. Not bad with Jones out and Hill out or shocking. 3-2 is tough though.

what have NDT average in the last 5 and what their record purp?

In this time, New Delhi have averaged 146.4 to net a 5-0 record

[Holz]

To be honest, in a 5 game stretch where you've averaged 154 ppg, you'd be pretty unluckily to register two losses


Wow didnt think i was travelling that good. Not bad with Jones out and Hill out or shocking. 3-2 is tough though.

what have NDT average in the last 5 and what their record purp?

In this time, New Delhi have averaged 146.4 to net a 5-0 record

Geez 8 points inferrior and 2 wins more.

Looking like real pretenders.

Minor premiership winners about to go 0-6