LaHug's Captains 2017 - Round 14

[LaHug]

This is the seventh year in a row I've brought you LaHug's Captains!

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[LaHug]

The byes are over and Thursday night games continue. Loopholes are still around so you've got two chances for a captain again. For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week.

We have a partial lockout this week for the Adelaide vs. Hawthorn game which means we can use the CAPTAINS LOOPHOLE!

How it works:

1.   Select a player from the Crows or Hawks as your VICE CAPTAIN.
2.   For now, set your captain to someone worthy of captaincy in another game in case you forget to change it.
3.   IF your VC scores really well, sub a non-playing player onto the field and set them as captain.
4.   Make sure you have an emergency in the position of your non-playing captain!

Note: This has risks if there are any late withdrawals as you won't have cover. I will not accept any responsibility for any such misfortune. Your team, your decision!

The facts & thoughts:

Sloane
Last 3: 62, 92, 157 (104 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 152, 96, 70 (106 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 62, 157, 63 (94 avg)

Two things. Firstly, Hawthorn aren't tagging (see Ablett's 153). Secondly, we can loophole Sloane so the risk is gone. Prediction - 125

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 141, 118, 108 (122 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 125, 90, 60 (92 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 118, 60, 41 (73 avg)

Tommy will probably be the more popular VC option and fair enough too. He's been great this year and is coming off a 141 before the bye. Definitely worth considering. Prediction - 125

J.P. Kennedy
Last 3: 102, 112, 112 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 115, 94, 88 (99 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 112, 112, 58 (94 avg)

To still crack the ton after starting poorly makes you a pretty reliable C choice. JPK is just pumping out consistent tons right now. However, the lack of high scoring means there are better options. Prediction - 110

Merrett
Last 3: 151, 106, 101 (119 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 117, 73, 82 (91 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 117, 82 (100 avg)

Zach is one of the super premiums in DT so you can give him a look based on that alone. He scored 117 in his breakout year last season and should back that up against the Swans this time. Prediction - 120

Treloar
Last 3: 116, 117, 109 (114 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 100, 93, 101 (98 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 116, 109, 126 (117 avg)

Tough one this week. Good form but average against the Power. There are better choices. Prediction - 110

Pendlebury
Last 3: 126, 112, 125 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 133, 112, 95 (113 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 126, 125, 144 (132 avg)

Pendles used to be good at DT and great at SC. Now it seems the roles have reversed and we're loving it in Fantasy Land. He's in great form, is great against the Power, and is very great at the MCG. Prediction - 125

Sidebottom
Last 3: 133, 127, 139 (133 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 89, 107, 142 (113 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 133, 139, 109 (127 avg)

Sidey's form is even better than Pendles's. If you have him, he's a really good option. Prediction - 130

Wines
Last 3: 119, 107, 110 (112 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 85, 136, 78 (100 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 85, 84, 78 (82 avg)

Good form but has had too many down games this year and sucks at the 'G. Prediction - 110

Rockliff
Last 3: 74, 95, 130 (100 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 128, 75, 95 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 95, 100, 157 (117 avg)

Rocky was very clearly hurt and/or sick last week, starting forward and spending a lot of time on the pine. Until he shows he's fit, I'm staying away. Prediction - 100

Zorko
Last 3: 157, 131, 124 (137 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 131, 84, 71 (95 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 131, 119, 76 (109 avg)

Holy moly is Zorko good or what?! 137 average in his last three, 131 against the Giants last year, and great at home. Prediction - 135

Beams
Last 3: 60, 145, 116 (107 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 123, 130, 113 (122 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 145, 144, 68 (119 avg)

Beams was hugely disappointing last week but is expected to be good again based on numbers. At home against a team he loves play, expect an instant reply. Prediction - 125

Dangerfield
Last 3: 116, 131, 125 (124 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 118, 130, 147 (132 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 131, 125, 156 (137 avg)

The fact that 116 last week was disappointing says it all. He's back at Kardinia this week and will likely go huge. The very high floor for him right now makes him doubley appealing. Prediction - 135

Selwood
Last 3: 48, 117, 122 (96 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 99, 128, 107 (111 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 117, 122, 116 (118 avg)

Selwood was comfortably tagged out of the game last week but I don't think Blakely's tag is quite as effective. At home, Joel will bounce back but there are better options. Prediction - 115

D. Martin
Last 3: 100, 164, 133 (132 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 139, 75, 65 (93 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 100, 133, 90 (108 avg)

Dusty used to be horrible against the Blues but we scored 139 against them in Round 1 and we forgot all about that history. He's in great form and should be good again. Don't worry about the Curnow tag as I'd think Cotchin or Houli would be tagged ahead of him. Prediction - 130

Cotchin
Last 3: 113, 148, 101 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 98, 76, 92 (89 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 113, 101, 94 (103 avg)

There's a big risk of a tag this week like the one thrown at GAJ last week. Cotch is in very good form but his history against the Blues is poor. Prediction - 105

Docherty
Last 3: 143, 149, 130 (141 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 90, 99, 107 (99 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 101, 159, 96 (119 avg)

There' a reason Doch made my Top 5 last week and he certainly delivered. He only managed 90 against the Tigers in Round 1 which is his worst score for the year. He followed that up with his third worst and second worst scores. What I'm saying is that you can ignore that score because he's averaged 125 since Round 4 and is on fire. Prediction - 135

Murphy
Last 3: 104, 104, 90 (99 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 139, 126, 92 (119 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 103, 100, 145 (116 avg)

Great against the Tigers but his current form isn't good enough with many better options. Prediction - 115

Gibbs
Last 3: 194, 108, 145 (149 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 105, 127, 85 (106 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 98, 102, 136 (112 avg)

The writing was on the wall and I missed it. Gibbs was averaging 111 on the year before last week and bumped that up to 118. He had a three round average of 139. But he didn't have a good recent record against the Suns. He has a better record against the Tigers and his form is hotter than ever. Do we go there? Prediction - 125

Ablett
Last 3: 91, 153, 117 (120 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 78, 70, 127 (92 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 162, 118, 127 (136 avg)

GAJ was tagged and tagged well last week. The numbers look poor at first but let's dive a bit deeper. 78 after not training all week and ending his season early the next week, 70 the week after hurting his shoulder and missing the next 12 weeks, 127, 71 with a Clinton Jones tag, 135, 61 with no explanation for poor score, 143, 118, etc. Basically, I'm telling you that the poor numbers you see are actually easily explained. It's whether or not you fear a tag this week that should make the real difference. Also note he's scored 162, 118, 127, 119 in his last four at Etihad, dating to 2014. Prediction - 120

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, because of stats and/or gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Franklin
Last 3: 61, 101, 99 (87 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 110, 59, 115 (95 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 101, 99, 133 (111 avg)

Numbers look far from outstanding but wait. Buddy has a ton against the Bombers in 5 of his last 6, and 7 of his last 10. Three of those scores are 130+. He likes playing the Bombers and he'll want to bounce back from last week. Gusty prediction - 135

The verdict:
1.   Docherty (135)

2.   Dangerfield (135)
3.   Zorko (135)
4.   Sidebottom (130)
5.   D. Martin (130)
6.   T. Mitchell (125) - VC option

[WhatMate]

Got a feeling Mitchell is going to go big  ;D

[Mat0369]

Murphy should be a safe bet to go 120+. If Mitchell fails I might go with him.

It will be interesting to see if we target someone from the Tiges. We have been pretty effective at it and it won't just be Curnow they have to deal with if he tags, the whole team has been excellent in doing it. Dusty destroyed us last time so he makes the most sense. We might go for Cotchin because he is a bit of a soft target, maybe we go Houli since he has been winning a bit of the ball and is such a good user.

[LaHug]

Murphy should be a safe bet to go 120+. If Mitchell fails I might go with him.

It will be interesting to see if we target someone from the Tiges. We have been pretty effective at it and it won't just be Curnow they have to deal with if he tags, the whole team has been excellent in doing it. Dusty destroyed us last time so he makes the most sense. We might go for Cotchin because he is a bit of a soft target, maybe we go Houli since he has been winning a bit of the ball and is such a good user.

Dusty's not super taggable because he's an elite full forward and will happily drag any tagger into uncomfortable positions. It's why teams never tag him. Cotchin usually gets a tag because he's our best ball using midfielder and he's proven to be very taggable.

[Thunderbolts]

VC will go on Tich and if that fails (which it shouldn't) I'll got Doch or Danger for C

[jvalles69]

I had Doch last week, but can't do it this week, he's got to come back down to earth at some point. Mitchell VC into Danger.

[Mat0369]

Are we taking Mitchell or taking the punt on Merrett/Doc?

[LaHug]

Are we taking Mitchell or taking the punt on Merrett/Doc?

Personally, I had the line at about 120 for Doch/Danger/Zorko and 115 for the rest. So I'm tossing up between those three in DT and Doch/Danger in AF. I'm finding it really hard to split them though.

[Gigantor]

Fantasy Freako‏ @FantasyFreako  13m13 minutes ago
More
Dangerfield has scored +117 #AFLFantasy points in 6 of his past 7 games at Simonds Stadium. All points to Danger as captain.

[LaHug]

Fantasy Freako‏ @FantasyFreako  13m13 minutes ago
More
Dangerfield has scored +117 #AFLFantasy points in 6 of his past 7 games at Simonds Stadium. All points to Danger as captain.

Sam Docherty has scored above 117 in his last 5 games, 6 of his last 7, 7 of his last 9. People are pointing to his relatively poor history against the Tigers but he had a worse or similar history against Gold Coast (132 and 143 this year), Freo (119 this year), North (130), and GWS (149) so I think his current form far outweighs that. A floor of 90 means you're losing 27 points at most to make 23 points based on rolling average. I'm happy to take that gamble.

Both are excellent choices, as is Zorko. I don't know who to pick tbh.

[Mat0369]

With Fyfe out I'm also tempted by Neale. I'm still leaning towards Merrett and his ceiling, but Doc's form has been ridiculous. Do they have Lloyd/Lambert try and do a defensive job on him though?

[LaHug]

With Fyfe out I'm also tempted by Neale. I'm still leaning towards Merrett and his ceiling, but Doc's form has been ridiculous. Do they have Lloyd/Lambert try and do a defensive job on him though?

Looking through my Richmond glasses, we never seem to tag and, if we do, we don't do a good job of it. Reckon Doc's fine.

[Mat0369]

Maybe I should just live and die by the Doc.

Or just bank Mitchell's 117.

[LaHug]

For what it's worth, I'm going Doc. I either make some ground on everyone that's going Danger or Mitchell, or I wasn't going to win anyway :)