LaHug's Captains 2017 - Round 13 - Bye Round 3

LaHug · June 14, 2017, 07:53:46 PM

This is the seventh year in a row I've brought you LaHug's Captains!

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LaHug · June 14, 2017, 07:55:01 PM

I'm back after a week off to guide you through what will be a difficult bye for many. For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week.

We have a partial lockout this week for the Eagles vs. Cats game which means we can use the CAPTAINS LOOPHOLE!

How it works:

1.   Select a player from the Eagles or Cats as your VICE CAPTAIN.
2.   For now, set your captain to someone worthy of captaincy in another game in case you forget to change it.
3.   IF your VC scores higher than my recommended cutoff (in brackets next to predictions), set someone with a BYE as your captain.

Note: Because we're practically certain to have bye players on the field and no emergencies, it's even easier this week and risk-free!

The facts & thoughts:

Dangerfield
Last 3: 131, 125, 156 (137 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 113, 91, 142 (115 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 118, 130, 142 (130 avg)

Easily the best VC option. On fire leading into his bye and has 5 tons (all 110+) in his last 6 at Subiaco. It's like a second Kardinia for Danger. Prediction - 135

J. Selwood
Last 3: 117, 122, 116 (118 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 102, 103, 61 (89 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 99, 128, 61 (96 avg)

If you don't want to go Danger, Joel's a pretty good option too. Also in a rich vein of form but doesn't quite have the history in Perth or against the Eagles that his partner in crime has. Prediction - 115

Duncan
Last 3: 97, 109, 169 (125 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 106, 97, 98 (100 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 128, 110, 122 (120 avg)

Duncan wasn't as good as the other two in the past two weeks but boasts a nice record at Subi. Could be worth a punt if you want a POD as your loophole. Prediction - 115

D. Martin
Last 3: 164, 133, 122 (140 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 114, 123, 69 (102 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 133, 90, 125 (116 avg)

Holy crap that's some incredible form. Dusty is on fire at the moment and looks like he wants that Brownlow. He's scored well at the MCG this year and has a nice little bit of form against the Swans. You'd hate to be a dummy like me without him in your team. Prediction - 130 (Cutoff - 120)

Cotchin
Last 3: 148, 101, 106 (118 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 94, 81, 91 (89 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 101, 94, 90 (95 avg)

Cotch has been quietely killing it himself this year but probably isn't an option for captain just yet. Not that great against the Swans. Prediction - 105 (Cutoff - 105)

J.P. Kennedy
Last 3: 112, 112, 105 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 131, 114, 107 (117 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 96, 139, 90 (108 avg)

JPK has turned a corner with the rest of the Swans and was a huge bargain last week if you got him. He hasn't quite shown the ceiling this year and, even though chasing last year's 131 seems tempting, I doubt the Swans win by 100+ this time around. Should still be good. Prediction - 115 (Cutoff - 110)

Hannebery
Last 3: 105, 108, 159 (124 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 100, 120, 96 (105 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 103, 49, 78 (77 avg)

Hannebery had a quieter two weeks after going huge and rocketing back up in value. Against the Tigers, he's good but not great so expect another solid score. Prediction - 105 (Cutoff - 105)

Ebert
Last 3: 115, 142, 90 (116 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 96, 106, 99 (100 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 142, 113, 149 (135 avg)

Ebert is incredible at home this year. Don't look too much into the Brisbane scores as Brad is having his best year by far. I think he's an incredible option this week (very few will have him) based on his history at Adelaide Oval. Prediction - 125 (Cutoff - 115)

Rockliff
Last 3: 95, 130, 167 (131 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 100, 76, 33 (70 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 127, 33, 140 (100 avg)

Port are Rocky's worst team to play and he didn't look quite right last week. Be very cautious. Prediction - 110 (Cutoff - 110)

Zorko
Last 3: 131, 124, 119 (125 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 76, 85, 110 (90 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 82, 110, 121 (104 avg)

Zorko is killing it right now and seems to have benefitted from the return of Beams. However, like Rocky, he hates playing the Power and only has two tons from seven tries, including a poor 76 this year. Prediction - 115 (Cutoff - 110)

Beams
Last 3: 145, 116, 144 (135 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 68, 106, 123 (99 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 106, 107, 0 (107 avg)

Holy crap Beams is back. Congratulations if you held him and shame on you if wasted your trades turning him into Rocky only to trade Rocky out too (like a certain Captains Expert did). Better yet, Port is one of his best teams to play over his career. I'm expecting very big things. Prediction - 130 (Cutoff - 120)

Ablett
Last 3: 153, 117, 108 (126 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 118, 124, 114 (119 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 117, 120, 118 (118 avg)

Ablett has answered the question I had back in Round 10: Is Hall worth getting over GAJ because of value? Obviously, I chose the wrong answer and I'm going to be even more upset this week because GAJ loves playing the Blues. He averages over 100 against them for his career meaning he's very low risk if your loophole fails. Prediction - 130 (Cutoff - 120)

Docherty
Last 3: 149, 130, 119 (133 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 132, 94, 76 (101 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 94 (94 avg)

Well done if you made Docherty your captain last week. He's now boasting a rolling average better than most of our premium midfielders and he doesn't look like slowing down. That 132 was just 8 weeks ago, coming from 24 kicks and 13 marks. I kid you not when I say that I'm very, very sure he'll replicate that effort. Frankly, I don't think the Suns care if he picks up +6s all day. Prediction - 130 (Cutoff - 120)

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, because of stats and/or gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

S. Selwood
Last 3: 125, 119, 119 (121 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: N/A
Last 3 at Subi: 63, 24, 86 (58 avg)

There's a lot of gut feel in this one. Scooter in his first game against his old side while boasting incredible form. It's very, very tempting. Better though, he's back at Subiaco where he actually scored quite highly in his former premo days. Between 2012 and 2014, he had six scores of 125+ out of 27 games there which, frankly, isn't too bad for a VC loophole option. Very much one to consider if you need a leg up. Prediction - 125

The verdict:
1.   Dangerfield (135) - Easily your best VC option

2.   Beams (130)
3.   D. Martin (130)
4.   Ablett (130)
5.   Docherty (130)

Mat0369 · June 15, 2017, 02:11:34 AM

I'll take Duncan into Doc this week

LaHug · June 15, 2017, 04:50:20 AM

Quote from: Mat0369 on June 15, 2017, 02:11:34 AM
I'll take Duncan into Doc this week

I'm strongly considering PODs to get a leg up too... but I'm also very concerned that Danger will just go 150+ and I'll look like an idiot.

Thunderbolts · June 15, 2017, 09:12:41 AM

has to be Danger as my VC with Ablett or Doc as Capt....

jvalles69 · June 15, 2017, 04:05:08 PM

YOLO Scooter VC into Rocky

Mat0369 · June 15, 2017, 04:17:16 PM

Quote from: LaHug on June 15, 2017, 04:50:20 AM
Quote from: Mat0369 on June 15, 2017, 02:11:34 AM
I'll take Duncan into Doc this week

I think if you have Yeo I'd look at him. His record in Perth is VC worthy. I'm going Danger in SC but I don't have him in AF/DT so Duncan gets the nod. His running power is made for the ground.

I'm strongly considering PODs to get a leg up too... but I'm also very concerned that Danger will just go 150+ and I'll look like an idiot.

PowerBug · June 15, 2017, 06:45:42 PM

With JJK out Yeo to play deep fwd again like last week?

pommyadam · June 15, 2017, 06:51:20 PM

Quote from: PowerBug on June 15, 2017, 06:45:42 PM
With JJK out Yeo to play deep fwd again like last week?

Yeo started deep fwd, but then (when that inevitably didn't work) got moved to CHB with Gov forward

LaHug · June 16, 2017, 10:11:31 AM

If you have Beams, Dusty, Ablett, or Docherty, I'd take them over any VC.

I'd take Ebert over anyone but Danger and Mitchell.

I'd take Zorko, Rocky, or JPK over any VC under 110.

Of course, it's your own team, but that's what I'm looking at. I have Docherty so he'll get the C.

WhatMate · June 16, 2017, 10:12:47 AM

Quote from: LaHug on June 16, 2017, 10:11:31 AM
If you have Beams, Dusty, Ablett, or Docherty, I'd take them over any VC.

I'd take Ebert over anyone but Danger and Mitchell.

I'd take Zorko, Rocky, or JPK over any VC under 110.

Of course, it's your own team, but that's what I'm looking at. I have Docherty so he'll get the C.

Let's go Bald Jesus ;D

jvalles69 · June 16, 2017, 06:19:42 PM

Switched to the Doch as captain. +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6 ;D

Mat0369 · June 16, 2017, 06:26:38 PM

Doc is love, Doc is life.

Dave085 · June 17, 2017, 09:46:24 PM

Quote from: jvalles69 on June 16, 2017, 06:19:42 PM
Switched to the Doch as captain. +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6 ;D

Ended up going with Doc over Dangers VC score. About the only thing that has worked out for me so far. 97 at half time...

jvalles69 · June 18, 2017, 01:24:45 PM

Quote from: Dave085 on June 17, 2017, 09:46:24 PM
Quote from: jvalles69 on June 16, 2017, 06:19:42 PM
Switched to the Doch as captain. +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6, +6 ;D

Ended up going with Doc over Dangers VC score. About the only thing that has worked out for me so far. 97 at half time...

I call him The Gobble-Doch, cos he's greedy for dat leather! ;D