LaHug's Captains 2017 - Round 11 - Bye Round 1

[LaHug]

This is the seventh year in a row I've brought you LaHug's Captains!

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[LaHug]

No! Not byes! We hate multi-bye rounds but at least we can get our captains right. For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week.

We have a partial lockout this week for the Port vs. Hawks game which means we can use the CAPTAINS LOOPHOLE!

How it works:

1.   Select a player from the Power or Hawks as your VICE CAPTAIN.
2.   For now, set your captain to someone worthy of captaincy in another game in case you forget to change it.
3.   IF your VC scores really well, set one of your bye players as captain.

Note: Because we're practically certain to have bye players on the field and no emergencies, it's even easier this week and risk-free!

The facts & thoughts:

Ebert
Last 3: 90, 103, 113 (102 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 14, 90, 81 (62 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 113, 149, 104 (122 avg)

Ebert is pretty much just here so you have another option if you're too stubborn to pick Mitchell. Ebert's ceiling is good and he had a 149 in Round 5. That's about it though. Prediction - 105

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 108, 177, 132 (139 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 139, 105, 81 (108 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 60, 41 (51 avg)

A 177 two weeks ago shows that his ceiling is ridiculous. Prior to last week, Tom's lowest score was a 115. Everything else was over 120, all but one was 125+ and he had four straight over 130. Anyway, I'm wasting my time here because you'd be stupid not to give him the VC. Prediction - 130

Dangerfield
Last 3: 125, 156, 88 (123 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 118, 129 (124 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 125, 156, 110 (130 avg)

If you took Dangerfield's 125 last week instead of chasing Mitchell or Merrett, you made the right choice. Danger's back at the Cattery this week and he's just ridiculous there. Been great in his two games against his old team too. Lock. Prediction - 130

Selwood
Last 3: 122, 116, 70 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 106, 82, 140 (109 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 122, 116, 126 (121 avg)

Selwood's also good at the Cattery but he's just a bit behind Danger when it comes to crazy scores. Still, Joel at home is always a safe choice. Prediction - 120

Duncan
Last 3: 109, 169, 91 (123 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 84, 66, 85 (78 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 109, 169, 74 (117 avg)

Maybe not quite as good as his star team mates at home, Duncan's still carrying an average of 139 at Kardinia this year thanks to his 169 two weeks ago. If he can tackle like that again, he'll be huge, but his record against the Crows worries me. Prediction - 105

Sloane
Last 3: 157, 111, 63 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 76, 155, 100 (110 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 76, 100, 109 (95 avg)

Sloane will cop the Scooter tag this week but that tag is more similar to Blakely's tag than the other ones Sloane has faced this year. Scott will go to him at stoppages but will very much win his own ball if it's there and will be more likely to tackle Sloane (preventing some but not all disposals) than to stop him getting the ball entirely. This means Sloane will remain back in top form for now. Maybe not quite a 157 though... Prediction - 130

Ablett
Last 3: 108, 120, 162 (130 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 120, 118, 89 (109 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 120, 118, 138 (125 avg)

GAJ is a fantasy star again this year. He loves the Eagles, loves playing Metricon, and is usually big after a week off (so how about two weeks??). My concern is his shoulder but all the numbers are too good to ignore. Prediction - 120

Hall
Last 3: 117, 134, 156 (136 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 98, 111, 24 (78 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 156, 102, 122 (127 avg)

Hall is in ridiculous form right now to the extent that his 117 was actually disappointing (particularly with a 50-odd first quarter). He's not that amazing against the Eagles but he does love a game at home so should be good. Prediction - 115

Gaff
Last 3: 124, 95, 146 (122 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 96, 91, 98 (95 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 96, 98 (97 avg)

When Gaff's allowed to rack it up on the wing, he scores big. Against the Suns, who gave up plenty of points to the Dees last weekend, you'd expect just that. However, his history says otherwise so I'd be cautious. Prediction - 110

Kelly
Last 3: 111, 106, 162 (126 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 85, 79 (82 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 106, 162, 105 (124 avg)

Is Kelly a full-fledged premium yet? Four tons in a row and a 126 rolling average seem to point towards yes. He hasn't been great against the Bombers in the past but he's breaking lots of scoring trends this season and he's been good enough at home to consider. Prediction - 115

Merrett
Last 3: 101, 126, 150 (126 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 105, 87 (96 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 87 (87 avg)

A prime example of why you take your loophole if he does well enough, Merrett only managed a 101 last week. At the same time, 101 is hardly horrible and that's just how good Merrett is. We expect nothing short of the best. He'll be back to that this week. Prediction - 125

D. Martin
Last 3: 133, 122, 90 (115 avg)
Last 3 against North: 67, 62, 111 (80 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 99, 103, 99 (100 avg)

Is Dusty a good fantasy pick or not this year? I seriously can't work it out. He's had six scores over 100 but four scores under. Three scores over 130 but an 86 and a 63 (albeit, he was a bit sore that game). What I do know is that the past two weeks is only the second time he's gone back-to-back tons and the first time they've both been over 110. His form is good, his history against North is poor, and he's shaky at Etihad. To tough to call so I'd look elsewhere unless I need a POD. Prediction - 110

Neale
Last 3: 60, 106, 96 (87 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 87, 120, 23 (77 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 106, 138, 114 (119 avg)

Neale was looking like a safe pick for a while and now has a rolling average of 87. He's nothing flash against the Pies either but I'm back a good score because he's been great at home. Prediction - 110

Pendlebury
Last 3: 125, 144, 88 (119 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 83, 101, 122 (102 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 85, 101, 107 (98 avg)

Oh Pendles, how I wish I had you in my team. Sure, he's been up and down, but so many players have been and Scott's scoring very well when he's on. His history against the Dockers isn't the best but I'm backing form having watched him in awe the past two weeks. Prediction - 120

Treloar
Last 3: 109, 126, 82 (106 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 127, 127, 91 (115 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 119, 127, 63 (103 avg)

Treloar looked like he was set for 120+ easily last week until he disappeared in the fourth. His job was done at that stage so you can hardly blame him but it kills you as a fantasy player. This week, he plays another team he's good against so I expect a good score and I just hope he doesn't clock out early again. Prediction - 120

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, because of stats and/or gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

S. Mitchell
Last 3: 97, 81, 104 (94 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 121, 108, 122 (117 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 122, 90 (106 avg)

Some quick Sam Mitchell facts for you. Averages 113 against the Suns (by far his best) and is 5/6 for tons against them in his career. He's averaging under 100 this year and he scored 122 against the Suns the last time that happened (2014). I'll be honest, you can do better than a guy that hasn't topped 111 all year but this could be the last time you get to give Sam Mitchell the C. Don't miss this opportunity. Gutsy prediction - 125

The verdict:
1.   Dangerfield (130)

2.   T. Mitchell (130) - Easily your best VC option!
3.   Sloane (130)
4.   Merrett (125)
5.   Selwood (120)

[LaHug]

No comments this week...

[GoLions]

No comments this week...

That's because you didn't even have Rocky in your top 5 for 3 weeks running smh

TMitch into Zerrett or Danger for me though

[Ricochet]

That's because you didn't even have Rocky in your top 5 for 3 weeks running smh

[timmy16744]

Thoughts on grundy with sandi out?

[GoLions]

Thoughts on grundy with sandi out?

I heard Sandi was playing?

[timmy16744]

I heard Sandi was playing?

Just read it was only 1 week, Thought it was 2 for some reason - my bad.

[LaHug]

I also heard that Mason Cox is a chance for a recall which kills Grundy. Will have to wait for teams though.

[DBRiMatt]

I also heard that Mason Cox is a chance for a recall which kills Grundy. Will have to wait for teams though.

Thats not the sort of thing Buckley should do given a "major external review" is on the cards...

[WhatMate]

So we taking Mitchell's score or trusting one of the others?

[DBRiMatt]

So we taking Mitchell's score or trusting one of the others?

I'm leaning towards Dangerfield - he shouldn't do much worse then Mitchells score, but certainly has the potential for more

[kilbluff1985]

i'm going Danger

[Ricochet]

Ebert  <3

[LaHug]

Well done if you took Ebert!

For VC summary:
Definitely take Ebert's score
Definitely take Dixon's score
Probably should take Mitchell or Burton but check your league games or even sneaky check what those you're chasing in overall are doing.