LaHug's Captains 2017 - Round 10 - Indigenous Round

[LaHug]

This is the seventh year in a row I've brought you LaHug's Captains!

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[LaHug]

Tom Mitchell, take a bow! Lucky for you readers, this particular captains expert had him at number one (unlike some others that will remain nameless but didn't even have him in their top 3...). For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week.

We have a partial lockout this week for the Geelong vs. Port game which means we can use the CAPTAINS LOOPHOLE!

How it works:

1.   Select a player from the Cats or Power as your VICE CAPTAIN.
2.   For now, set your captain to someone worthy of captaincy in another game in case you forget to change it.
3.   IF your VC scores really well, sub a non-playing player onto the field and set them as captain.
4.   Make sure you have an emergency in the position of your non-playing captain!

Note: This has risks if there are any late withdrawals as you won't have cover. I will not accept any responsibility for any such misfortune. Your team, your decision!

The facts & thoughts:

Dangerfield
Last 3: 156, 88, 119 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 115, 90, 120 (108 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 156, 110, 135 (134 avg)

Danger is back! Now, usually you'd be a bit cautious chucking the C on him considering he's still apparently sore and he's has some shockers this year, but we don't even have to this week. This is the best loophole opportunity I've seen in ages so take full advantage! Good against Port and insanely good at the Cattery. Prediction - 135

Selwood
Last 3: 116, 70, 93 (93 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 134, 66, 73 (91 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 116, 126, 91 (111 avg)

Selwood's also good at home and was pretty decent last week but has to be loophole only at this point with his current form. Prediction - 110

Duncan
Last 3: 169, 91, 128 (129 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 110, 101, 85 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 169, 74, 99 (114 avg)

Holy crap can Duncan tackle! A game-high 18 tackles might not be sustainable each week but he's had three other scores above 125 this season and makes a very good loophole option. Prediction - 120

Hannebery
Last 3: 159, 117, 115 (130 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 78, 99, 90 (89 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 115, 84, 125 (108 avg)

I've been talking up Hannebery as the best Swan for a while now and he really proved it last week. Don't go chasing points though as his history against the Hawks makes him far riskier than some others. Prediction - 115

J.P. Kennedy
Last 3: 105, 122, 58 (95 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 131, 88, 108 (109 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 58, 75, 91 (75 avg)

JPK is too up and down this year but has a couple of tons on the trot now and killed the Hawks last time. Could do worse. Prediction - 105

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 177, 132, 136 (148 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: N/A
Last 3 at SCG: 90, 138, 139 (122 avg)

How good is Tom Mitchell? Against his old side, I expect him to go bang again. His season low is still that 115 in Round 3 and every other game has been over 120. His last three have been his best three so it looks like he's just getting better. Prediction - 135

Steven
Last 3: 100, 100, 113 (104 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 145, 104, 113 (121 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 100, 100, 113 (104 avg)

Steven hasn't shown enogh this year to be a great option but there are two things that make me keen this week. That 145 in their last matchup, and the points the Dogs gave up to the Cats last week. Prediction - 120

Ablett
Last 3: 108, 120, 162 (130 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 82, 61, 119 (87 avg)
Last 3 at Alice Springs: N/A

GAJ doesn't like playing the Dees of late and you might be a bit wary this week. He's been ridiculous though, not dropping below the ton since Round 2 and his pre-bye 108 actually his lowest in that time. Prediction - 110

D. Martin
Last 3: 122, 90, 99 (104 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 161, 123, 66 (117 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 90, 125, 156 (124 avg)

Oh sweet rollercoaster Dusty. When we're expecting you to go huge, you either deliver or give a 90. That means you really can't give him the C but I see how that recent Essendon form is might tempting. One for the risk takers. Prediction - 120

Merrett
Last 3: 126, 150, 124 (133 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 152, 115, 80 (116 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 150, 137, 97 (128 avg)

Meanwhile, Merrett's a bit safer and has a great record against the Tigers to boot. It's really between him and Tom this week and you can't go wrong with either. Prediction - 135

Sloane
Last 3: 111, 63, 65 (80 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 81, 135, 87 (101 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 81, 107, 87 (92 avg)

Blakely will probably get the job on Sloane this week but he's really more of a run-with player than a hard tag. Murphy was fine last week and Sloane should be fine this week. Prediction - 120

Neale
Last 3: 106, 96, 138 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 105, 115, 70 (97 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 106, 138, 114 (119 avg)

I'm not entirely sure whether Neale is a premium or not this year. That 106 last week included a 14 point 4th quarter and a scoreless final 15 minutes (real time - I know because it cost me my multi...). The potential is clearly still there but I can't quite trust him at the moment. Prediction - 110

Pendlebury
Last 3: 144, 88, 109 (114 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 106, 104, 95 (102 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 144, 109, 141 (131 avg)

Instead of super consistency this year, we're getting a rollercoaster from Pendles. Against the Lions, he's fairly average, but he's been huge at the 'G recently. Your guess is as good as mine for how he'll go. Prediction - 110

Treloar
Last 3: 126, 82, 82 (97 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 131, 120, 115 (122 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 126, 82, 82 (97 avg)

Meanwhile, Treloar bounced back after a week off with a solid 126. He's been amazing against the Lions and is very much a good option this week. Prediction - 125

Zorko
Last 3: 119, 125, 97 (114 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 122, 104, 130 (119 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 91, 124, 130 (115 avg)

On the other team, Zorko has had a good couple of weeks and loves to play the Pies. I suggested he might step up in Rocky's absence and he looks the goods. Prediction - 120

Murphy
Last 3: 107, 122, 103 (111 avg)
Last 3 against North: 91, 80, 88 (86 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 122, 124, 15 (87 avg)

Murphy did pretty well despite a tag last week but his history against North leaves much to be desired. Pass. Prediction - 95

Goldstein
Last 3: 148, 97, 98 (114 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 138, 102, 97 (112 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 97, 93, 112 (101 avg)

I picked it! Goldy was bound to go huge against the Dees with their current ruck problems and his history. Now he faces the Blues who he also has a great history against. Will his momentum from last week carry over? I'm backing yes. Prediction - 120

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, because of stats and/or gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Fyfe
Last 3: 90, 75, 95 (87 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 150, 94, 128 (124 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 90, 95, 64 (83 avg)

Why you shouldn't back Fyfe: six straight scores under 100, two of them under 80, and doesn't look like the Fyfe of old. Why you should: Adelaide are his second best team to play against for his career, a 150 in 2015, envy surrounding Dusty's contract offers. Take a punt. Gutsy prediction - 135

The verdict:
1.   T. Mitchell (135)

2.   Merrett (135)
3.   Dangerfield (135) - Easily your best VC option!
4.   Treloar (125)
5.   Zorko (120)

[LaHug]

For the first time ever, I have my entire Top 5 in one of my teams!

[Mat0369]

I don't  :(

The week I did though I went pretty average  :P

[LaHug]

I don't  :(

The week I did though I went pretty average  :P

Who are you missing?

[Thunderbolts]

Titch for me this week with Danger as the VC loophole...

[Mat0369]

I don't  :(

The week I did though I went pretty average  :P

Who are you missing?

Danger, Treloar and Zorko

[LaHug]

I don't  :(

The week I did though I went pretty average  :P

Who are you missing?

Danger, Treloar and Zorko

But your mids are still incredible so it doesn't really matter :P

[jvalles69]

Tough call to take the Danger score or not with so many mids going large last week?  :-\

[Mat0369]

I'm taking Mitchell. Swans can leak points in the middle and you think he will have a point to prove this week.

[Chelskiman]

I'm going Zerrett.  A lot will have brought in Mitchell this week (those who somehow didn't have him already  ???) chasing his 177, but I think Sydney may look to shut him down. 

[jvalles69]

I'm locking in Danger.

[Bill Manspeaker]

I vc'd Danger as well but flower it, goin with Mitchell. he's in too good a form

[Rusty00]

I'm locking in Danger.

[LaHug]

If you trust my predictions, Mitchell or Merrett would be getting you about 10 points... except you're risking an injury or a tag or just a stinker. I'd rather take the 125. If Mitchell somehow matches last week, you're losing 52 points. If he gets injured in the first 5 minutes, you're losing 125 points. How much are you willing to gamble?