LaHug's Captains 2017 - Round 9

[LaHug]

This is the seventh year in a row I've brought you LaHug's Captains!

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[LaHug]

Rocky out injured leaves us with just two uber-reliable guys. In case you don't have them, or you want a POD, read on for the best advice in town. For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week.

The facts & thoughts:

Dangerfield
Last 3: 88, 119, 76 (94 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 135, 143, 110 (129 avg)
Last 3 at Kardinia: 110, 135, 118 (121 avg)

Two weeks ago, Danger looked like he might be back. Then he forgot how to tackle. With how angry Chris Scott must have been, I expect all the Cats to lift their tackling numbers this week. Danger is great against the Dogs so, with his ball-winning back and his tackling likely to follow, he should be good. Prediction - 125

Steven
Last 3: 100, 113, 133 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 73, 120, 104 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 100, 113, 87 (100 avg)

Jack Steven certainly looks to be back in form and I know many coaches are planning on getting him after his bye. If you already have him, he should be good again this week. Prediction - 110

J.P. Kennedy
Last 3: 122, 58, 96 (92 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 118, 134, 16 (89 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 122, 86, 118 (109 avg)

Are the Swans back or are North just not that great? JPK was great last week, has been surprisingly good at Etihad, and faces the Saints who he's smashed the last two times. One to consider. Prediction - 115

Hannebery
Last 3: 117, 115, 103 (112 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 128, 133, 75 (112 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 117, 79, 128 (108 avg)

Hannebery was the only Swan I considered last week and he certainly looked good despite some attention from the opposition. Against the Saints, I expect him to go one better. His form is there and history says yes. Prediction - 120

Parker
Last 3: 121, 90, 95 (102 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 144, 112, 97 (118 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 121, 91, 144 (119 avg)

Another Swan to bounce back last week, Parker's known for his high ceiling and big scores. He had one last time they played the Saints and could be big again. I'm staying cautious though. Prediction - 110

Franklin
Last 3: 99, 133, 69 (100 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 139, 40, 157 (112 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 99, 127, 139 (122 avg)

Feeling brave? Buddy's scored 139, 40, and 157 in his last three against the Saints. That's quite the rollercoaster. He did get red-vested in that 40 game but was looking poor regardless. Quite the gamble but the reward could be massive. Prediction - 115

Kelly
Last 3: 162, 111, 91 (121 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 63, 60, 0 (41 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 162, 105, 66 (111 avg)

Are we overreacting or is Kelly a legit option right now? He's scored well in his two games in Western Sydney this year, with last week's 162 the highlight. He's had a poor history against the Tigers but he's young and very much breaking out. Maybe still a bit risky this early on but I'm feeling a BOG performance. Prediction - 110

D. Martin
Last 3: 90, 99, 107 (99 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 132, 74, 111 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 111, 132, 86 (110 avg)

Dusty is down on form and I'm not sure when he's coming back. He should be good this week based on history but I'm not backing him again until he delivers. Prediction - 105

S. Martin
Last 3: 134, 104, 86 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 151, 136, 123 (137 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 86, 114, 121 (107 avg)

Here's a juicy one for you. Stef Martin just loves playing the Crows. Absolutely smashes them despite Jacobs being a great player in his own right. I can't see any reason why he wouldn't again. Prediction - 130

Sloane
Last 3: 63, 65, 155 (94 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 117, 117, 68 (101 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 68, 160, 100 (109 avg)

Rory Sloane can't shake a tag. Good news for anyone that brought him in is that Robinson's still injured for the Lions. Based on his history against the Lions and how he was going before this tagging stuff started, I expect a big week from Sloane. However, there's still a risk that Brisbane utilise someone else in the tagging role. Prediction - 130

Pendlebury
Last 3: 88, 109, 141 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 107, 152, 89 (116 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 109, 141, 70 (107 avg)

History says he should be good against the Hawks but Pendles is still down on form. Keep an eye out for baby news in case he's a risk of being out again but maybe don't give him the C just yet. Prediction - 110

Treloar
Last 3: 82, 82, 144 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 126, 108, 120 (118 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 82, 82, 144 (103 avg)

Now this would take some guts. Treloar is typically good against the Hawks but two 82s in a row before an ankle injury makes me doubt him. If the week off did him wonders, you're looking at a great score this week. I'm not that brave. Prediction - 105

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 132, 136, 125 (131 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 132, 138, 95 (122 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 136, 122, 125 (128 avg)

Tom Mitchell, one of two reliables left. A low score of 115 this year and seven scores above 120 is all you need to know. Safe and two 130+ scores in a row. Did I mention he's also great against the Pies? Prediction - 135

Merrett
Last 3: 150, 124, 108 (127 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 123, 137, 42 (101 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 108, 148, 127 (128 avg)

And here's the other one. Merrett's floor might be a bit lower, with a 97 in Round 3 his only non-ton, but he's cracked the 130 mark four times this year, including a 150 last week. He's good against the Eagles and is your other great choice this week. Prediction - 135

Gaff
Last 3: 146, 82, 109 (112 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 131, 102, 74 (102 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 144, 79, 114 (112 avg)

Am I backing in Gaff after one good score? You bet your arse I'm not. 31 uncontested possessions is laughable and shouldn't happen against any opponent with dignity. Still, Gaff should have some more confidence now and could be looking at a decent one. Prediction - 105

Neale
Last 3: 96, 138, 114 (116 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 130, 105, 84 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 138, 114, 86 (113 avg)

Lachie Neale was shaping up to be another reliable but only managed a 96 last week. He's still got a rolling average of 116 and is good against the Blues. At home, he's far from a bad choice. Prediction - 120

Docherty
Last 3: 127, 101, 159 (129 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 62, 98, 75 (78 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 62, 98, 100 (87 avg)

Sorry Doch owners but it's finally time for a poor week. Docherty is bad against the Dockers and is bad in Perth. Prediction - 85

Murphy
Last 3: 122, 103, 100 (108 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 108, 106, 87 (100 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 108, 106, 93 (102 avg)

A bit of controvery didn't stop Murphy from getting another good score last week, back in the 120+ range. He has a decent history against the Dockers so that, coupled with an awesome year, should make for a good score. Prediction - 110

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, because of stats and/or gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Goldstein
Last 3: 97, 98, 93 (96 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 149, 155, 99 (134 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 73, 155, 133 (120 avg)

Goldy isn't getting tons so it's unlikely he's in your team. If he is, you might want to double his score this week. Rucks against Melbourne without Gawn or Spencer: Jacobs - 132, McEvoy - 124, Bellchambers - 91, Nankervis - 131, Smith - 106. That's right, the lowest score against ruckless Melbourne is a 91 from Bellchambers. Goldstein is a lot better than Bellchambers. Three "premium" rucks scoring 130+ combined with Goldstein's crazy record against the Dees makes him a huge chance to go bonkers. Gutsy prediction - 160

The verdict:
1.   T. Mitchell (135)

2.   Merrett (135)
3.   S. Martin (130)
4.   Sloane (130)
5.   Dangerfield (125)

[GoLions]

Rico, what are we gonna do hahaha

What about the other guy in that pic of TMitch...? ;)

[Mat0369]

Just a couple of notes. Pendles missus had the baby so he should play. Nick Robertson went to Smith last week when they played the Hawks and kept him to a sub 70 score. I'd say he goes to Sloane this weekend.

[LaHug]

Just a couple of notes. Pendles missus had the baby so he should play. Nick Robertson went to Smith last week when they played the Hawks and kept him to a sub 70 score. I'd say he goes to Sloane this weekend.

Thanks man. Busy week so missed the details. Cbf changing it but good to note!

[Ricochet]

Rico, what are we gonna do hahaha

What about the other guy in that pic of TMitch...? ;)

Haha came here to ask you the same question

:'(

[LaHug]

I think what kills me most is that a Rocky injury is exactly why I didn't start him. Then, when Beams went down, I finally gave in and got him. Maybe he doesn't always get injured, just always gets injured if I have him??

[Ricochet]

I think what kills me most is that a Rocky injury is exactly why I didn't start him. Then, when Beams went down, I finally gave in and got him. Maybe he doesn't always get injured, just always gets injured if I have him??

Haha atleast it was after a massive score and not at the start of a game

[Thunderbolts]

Another great write up!!

Merrett for me with Mitchell as VC...

[WhatMate]

Taking a punt and going Adams, will probs person out and go back to titch though. Going on form, ceiling and the fact that Hawks are giving up a lot of points and more importantly big scores

[Jukes]

First week in AF (both normal and draft comp) I can't just stick the C on Rocky :'(

Titch and his replacement Zachy are strong alternatives I guess!

[Bill Manspeaker]

gotta go with the ultra consistent Tommy Mitchell

[Mat0369]

Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell!

[LaHug]

Two things of interest.

1. More people selected Merrett than Mitchell in the poll. Does that mean they all missed out on that score?

2. Calvin's Captains had Mitchell as option number 4... seriously?
2a. Then again, I had Sloane as number 1 last week so I'm wrong sometimes too.

[Mat0369]

I'm hoping everyone had a bit of panic and thought Greenwood would go to him. I looked at the last couple against Collingwood and thought I'd go the high floor option again (like Rocky last week over Sloane). Even if Merrett scores 180 I still win.