Trade OUT: Otten vs. Hampton

Started by BomberSam, May 10, 2017, 10:06:50 AM

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BomberSam

I will trade one this week, and one next week. Both have a 91 BE, Otten is 376.4k and averaging 82.86, and Hampton is 305.5k and averaging 63. I would probably expect both to score around the 60 mark this weekend. Who should be traded first?

Holz

Quote from: BomberSam on May 10, 2017, 10:06:50 AM
I will trade one this week, and one next week. Both have a 91 BE, Otten is 376.4k and averaging 82.86, and Hampton is 305.5k and averaging 63. I would probably expect both to score around the 60 mark this weekend. Who should be traded first?

well if you expect both to score 60 then trade out the guy who is priced more.

i expect otten to beat hampton so im trading hampton.


BomberSam

How much less than Otten would Hampton have to score to lose the same amount of cash?

dylanclements

Quote from: Holz on May 10, 2017, 10:12:15 AM
Quote from: BomberSam on May 10, 2017, 10:06:50 AM
would probably expect both to score around the 60 mark this weekend
i expect otten to beat hampton so im trading hampton.

Otten is every chance of getting 90 - Hampton is much less likely. Trade Hampton. With the way things are going I'm going to try to hold Marchbank and Otten for as long as possible, if they can stay above 70

LordSneeze

Quote from: dylanclements on May 10, 2017, 10:22:44 AM
Quote from: Holz on May 10, 2017, 10:12:15 AM
Quote from: BomberSam on May 10, 2017, 10:06:50 AM
would probably expect both to score around the 60 mark this weekend
i expect otten to beat hampton so im trading hampton.

Otten is every chance of getting 90 - Hampton is much less likely. Trade Hampton. With the way things are going I'm going to try to hold Marchbank and Otten for as long as possible, if they can stay above 70
This is my thinking too. I was hoping I could go Hampton to Mutimer via Hibberd to Def (Better for Bye structure), but that is unlikely so might just be an upgrade instead

RaisyDaisy

Hampton easy

I'm spewing because I want to trade Hampton, but looks like I need to trade Otten as I need the extra funds for my upgrades


Ringo

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on May 10, 2017, 10:36:20 AM
Hampton easy

I'm spewing because I want to trade Hampton, but looks like I need to trade Otten as I need the extra funds for my upgrades
Similar RD that extra 70k is a nice carrot though, I have hit reverse trades for Otten and Hampton about half a dozen times already.  :D

RaisyDaisy

Quote from: Ringo on May 10, 2017, 11:46:49 AM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on May 10, 2017, 10:36:20 AM
Hampton easy

I'm spewing because I want to trade Hampton, but looks like I need to trade Otten as I need the extra funds for my upgrades
Similar RD that extra 70k is a nice carrot though, I have hit reverse trades for Otten and Hampton about half a dozen times already.  :D

I'm flowering 2.7k short of what I want to do when trading Hampton so I need to trade Otten for that. 2.7k!

Hazza09

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on May 10, 2017, 01:19:25 PM
Quote from: Ringo on May 10, 2017, 11:46:49 AM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on May 10, 2017, 10:36:20 AM
Hampton easy

I'm spewing because I want to trade Hampton, but looks like I need to trade Otten as I need the extra funds for my upgrades
Similar RD that extra 70k is a nice carrot though, I have hit reverse trades for Otten and Hampton about half a dozen times already.  :D

I'm flowering 2.7k short of what I want to do when trading Hampton so I need to trade Otten for that. 2.7k!

I am in the exact same boat.

I can go Hampton & Butler - Yeo & McNeice or Hampton & Treloar - Dusty & Yeo, but with Otten i can go Otten & Trelaor - Rocky & Yeo or many other options…Pendles or Selwood.

Im trying to avoid a downgrade this week, but if Treloar is out then ill have no choice but to chop Otten and play Hampton/Stewart/Newman as my D6

Marstar

Quote from: RaisyDaisy on May 10, 2017, 01:19:25 PM
Quote from: Ringo on May 10, 2017, 11:46:49 AM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on May 10, 2017, 10:36:20 AM
Hampton easy

I'm spewing because I want to trade Hampton, but looks like I need to trade Otten as I need the extra funds for my upgrades
Similar RD that extra 70k is a nice carrot though, I have hit reverse trades for Otten and Hampton about half a dozen times already.  :D

I'm flowering 2.7k short of what I want to do when trading Hampton so I need to trade Otten for that. 2.7k!

I'm in the same boat (6.2k short): Hampton -> Pendles and Witts -> Yeo after some DPP shenanigans  :'( :'( :'(

djbics

Quote from: Holz on May 10, 2017, 10:12:15 AM
Quote from: BomberSam on May 10, 2017, 10:06:50 AM
I will trade one this week, and one next week. Both have a 91 BE, Otten is 376.4k and averaging 82.86, and Hampton is 305.5k and averaging 63. I would probably expect both to score around the 60 mark this weekend. Who should be traded first?

well if you expect both to score 60 then trade out the guy who is priced more.

i expect otten to beat hampton so im trading hampton.

I voted Otten only due to your conditions (one this week, one next, expecting them both to score approximately 60). 

As Holz said, the guy priced more (otten) is more valuable to your trades in this outcome, though tbh I agree with the others here that Otten should score more than Hampton so in that case I'd trade Hampton.

This is doubly the case if you were to hold 1 past next week, as Otten is more likely to pull a score that might scrounge a bit more cash, his BE is only so high as his past 3 games have been 101, 61, 69 and that 101 is about to drop from his 3-game rolling average meaning his next BE will be much more achievable

whynot102

Similar dilemma trade Hampton can upgrade SPP to Adams/Hanners trade Otten trade SPP to Bont/Neale stuck which way to go however don't rate Hampton at all imo lucky to be in the side at all

Dudge

It does seem we're all the same boat, that few extra grand makes so much difference

Bully

I'm trading Otten, need the cash.

Gigantor

Quote from: djbics on May 10, 2017, 07:07:57 PM
Quote from: Holz on May 10, 2017, 10:12:15 AM
Quote from: BomberSam on May 10, 2017, 10:06:50 AM
I will trade one this week, and one next week. Both have a 91 BE, Otten is 376.4k and averaging 82.86, and Hampton is 305.5k and averaging 63. I would probably expect both to score around the 60 mark this weekend. Who should be traded first?

well if you expect both to score 60 then trade out the guy who is priced more.

i expect otten to beat hampton so im trading hampton.

I voted Otten only due to your conditions (one this week, one next, expecting them both to score approximately 60). 

As Holz said, the guy priced more (otten) is more valuable to your trades in this outcome, though tbh I agree with the others here that Otten should score more than Hampton so in that case I'd trade Hampton.

This is doubly the case if you were to hold 1 past next week, as Otten is more likely to pull a score that might scrounge a bit more cash, his BE is only so high as his past 3 games have been 101, 61, 69 and that 101 is about to drop from his 3-game rolling average meaning his next BE will be much more achievable

That hundred is already gone, his rolling average is 61,69 + this weeks score. His break even is high because he has scored less then what is his priced at the last two weeks.
If he scores 70 he will drop about 8k and his knew BE will be around 75