LaHug's Captains 2017 - Round 8

[LaHug]

This is the seventh year in a row I've brought you LaHug's Captains!

If you love my work and want to give something back, please consider donating to my charity of choice, Cancer Council Victoria.

I raise money each year to honour my father and two grandfathers, all losing their battles with cancer.

Please donate generously: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

2017 FF Total: $55.65
Thanks to:
tor01doc
WhatMate

[LaHug]

The collapse of Sloane means nobody is safe. Let me try to lead you through these dangerous waters... For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week.

The facts & thoughts:

Bontempelli
Last 3: 113, 102, 105 (107 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 93, 125, 91 (103 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 103, 93, 92 (96 avg)

The Bont wasn't as big against the Tigers as we thought he would be but he's still knocking out consistent tons. Against the Eagles, I don't expect anything too big but he should be good again. Prediction - 105

T. Mitchell
Last 3: 136, 125, 122 (128 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 106, 93 (100 avg)
Last 3 at Launceston: 125 (125 avg)

We're seven rounds in and Tom Mitchell's season-low is 115. The other six games have been 122+ and he's averaging 125 on the year. He's super consistent and the safest option, as well as one of the best. Prediction - 125

Rockliff
Last 3: 167, 100, 124 (130 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 159, 96, 63 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Launceston: 159, 96, 63 (106 avg)

I'm pretty happy I got this guy in last week. Rocky continues to pump out massive scores every time we're worried he's going a bit quiet. He smashed the Hawks for 159 in Tassie last year but he's been poor in other previous match-ups. High risk but high reward and I'm backing Rocky this week based on his current form. Note that another tackle-happy mid in Viney scored 145 against this Hawks outfit last week. Prediction - 130

Zorko
Last 3: 97, 76, 157 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 106, 89, 93 (96 avg)
Last 3 at Launceston: 89, 93, 57 (80 avg)

I'm less happy I got this guy in a fortnight ago... And now, after two weeks under 100 despite the numbers saying he'll go well, the numbers say he'll be bad. Sorry all but it's not looking good. Prediction - 80

Docherty
Last 3: 101, 159, 108 (123 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 120, 114, 66 (100 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 132, 114, 85 (110 avg)

Docherty's in some fine form but I'm most excited about his two scores last year against the Saints. I don't think he'll go huge this week but I'm more than happy expecting another good score from a defender. Prediction - 120

Simpson
Last 3: 101, 161, 102 (121 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 135, 117, 67 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 97, 117, 99 (104 avg)

Simpson's probably been slightly less good than Doch this year but is also killing it and was also great against the Saints both times last year. Anyone with both Blues backmen will be having a good weekend. Prediction - 120

Treloar
Last 3: 82, 82, 144 (103 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 96 (96 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 96, 123, 109 (109 avg)

What's going on with Treloar at the moment? Two 82s in a row make him an automatic pass this week but I thought we should highlight that he didn't manage a ton in his one crack against his old side last year either. Prediction - 90

Adams
Last 3: 117, 148, 88 (118 avg)
Last 3 against GWS: 104, 146 (125 avg)
Last 3 at Showgrounds: 104, 111, 82 (99 avg)

On the contrary, Adams is doing super well right now and has a great record against his old side. Expect another good score from yet another great DT defender. Prediction - 115

Merrett
Last 3: 124, 108, 137 (123 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 89, 127, 106 (107 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 137, 97, 129 (121 avg)

How good is this kid? Merrett almost always scores well and I can't see why he won't again this week. Prediction - 120

Dangerfield
Last 3: 119, 76, 117 (104 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 105, 86, 118 (103 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 76, 93, 138 (102 avg)

The 119 is a trap. Danger still doesn't seem quite right after his big knock against the Hawks and I'd be very weary picking him. He doesn't have the record against the Bombers anyway. Prediction - 105

Sloane
Last 3: 65, 155, 132 (117 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 125, 130, 89 (115 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 155, 143, 139 (146 avg)

Sloane only managed a 65 last week... yet he still averages 117 in his last three. Let's not forget his ridiculous five week patch or just how good he's been at home. He's also great against the Dees. Prediction - 140

D. Martin
Last 3: 99, 107, 125 (110 avg)
Last 3 against Fremantle: 107, 100, 142 (116 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 125, 156, 86 (122 avg)

Dusty should ton here based on his history and it could be good because he's back at the MCG. I don't trust him enough though. Prediction - 115

Neale
Last 3: 138, 114, 86 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 149, 57, 91 (99 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 119, 87, 57 (88 avg)

If super recent form is anything to go by, Neale will be massive this week. He can score at the G, he killed the Tigers last year, and he's coming off a big 138. The risk is when you look a little further back and see those lower scores. I'm backing Neale to be good this week but it's very risky. Prediction - 120

Ablett
Last 3: 120, 162, 118 (133 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 82, 118, 106 (102 avg)
Last 3 at China: N/A

You'd be crazy to back anyone in the China game but I can't look past GAJ this week. 133 over his three and a pretty good record against Port. But seriously, don't risk it. Prediction - 110

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, because of stats and/or gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Yeo
Last 3: 124, 152, 73 (116 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 77, 76, 31 (61 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 152, 116, 103 (124 avg)

With a previous best average of 79, Yeo's 110 average so far this year is definitely a breakout year. That means it's probably fair to look past his shoddy history against the Bulldogs (he only had 11 tons in 5 years before this one) and focus on the now. With scores of 152, 124, and 120 next to his name, the scoring potential's there. Why I'm really liking Yeo this week is he's scored three for three tons at home this year going at 124. Yum! Gutsy prediction - 130

The verdict:
1.   Sloane (140)

2.   Rockliff (130)
3.   T. Mitchell (125)
4.   Merrett (120)
5.   Docherty (120)

[Ricochet]

Have had the C on Rocky all year and will keep it there this week

[GoLions]

Have had the C on Rocky all year and will keep it there this week

[Mat0369]

I have the top 5 in RDT  :P I also have Simmo and Neale.

Just a couple to add on and I'll do the research for this tomorrow. From memory one of Rocky's poor scores in Tassie was tagging Sam Mitchell. He also ended up with a nice 1 week suspension for that game.

Heath Shaw is another. First decent score in a couple of weeks with Haynes out of the side. Playing his old team, just have a feeling he will go pretty well.

[LaHug]

I have the top 5 in RDT  :P I also have Simmo and Neale.

I think that may just explain why you're number one overall. That's amazing! I have 4 in RDT and 3 in AF but neither of Simmo or Neale. Wish I'd done the Fyfe to Neale sideways I'd contemplated 4 weeks ago but carnage prevents all luxury trades. (At least carnage let me keep Viney in RDT again last week - first time that's paid off.)

[Ringo]

I have the top 5 in RDT  :P I also have Simmo and Neale.

Just a couple to add on and I'll do the research for this tomorrow. From memory one of Rocky's poor scores in Tassie was tagging Sam Mitchell. He also ended up with a nice 1 week suspension for that game.

Heath Shaw is another. First decent score in a couple of weeks with Haynes out of the side. Playing his old team, just have a feeling he will go pretty well.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-03-25/rockliff-accepts-one-week-ban

Confirmation Rocky cops a one week ban for hit while tagging Sam Mitchell.

[LaHug]

I have the top 5 in RDT  :P I also have Simmo and Neale.

Just a couple to add on and I'll do the research for this tomorrow. From memory one of Rocky's poor scores in Tassie was tagging Sam Mitchell. He also ended up with a nice 1 week suspension for that game.

Heath Shaw is another. First decent score in a couple of weeks with Haynes out of the side. Playing his old team, just have a feeling he will go pretty well.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2014-03-25/rockliff-accepts-one-week-ban

Confirmation Rocky cops a one week ban for hit while tagging Sam Mitchell.

This is definitely interesting. Thanks guys. Maybe he should jump over Sloane into that number 1 spot...

[WhatMate]

In a way im hoping Sloane doesn't rack up 140 this week so I can bring him in at a cheaper price next week  :P

Rocky captain again for me also!!

[LaHug]

In a way im hoping Sloane doesn't rack up 140 this week so I can bring him in at a cheaper price next week  :P

Exact same reason I'll happily be wrong.

[Mat0369]

I think that may just explain why you're number one overall. That's amazing! I have 4 in RDT and 3 in AF but neither of Simmo or Neale. Wish I'd done the Fyfe to Neale sideways I'd contemplated 4 weeks ago but carnage prevents all luxury trades. (At least carnage let me keep Viney in RDT again last week - first time that's paid off.)

I brought Sloane in last week for so have only copped his poor score so far. I'd expect him to bounce back hard.

The Saints spanked us twice last year and I'll be thrilled if it's under 40 points. They played a loose down back which completely destroyed us. If they create Roberton as a loose he could be in for a huge day. Hopefully that means we play Doc loose down the other end and he gets a heap of the pill as well.

[Capper]

Currently have it on Titch but not 100% as Robinson tagged JPK to 58 DT points even though the Swans won well.

Other option is Buddy who has scored 204 against North

[Rusty00]

Currently have it on Titch but not 100% as Robinson tagged JPK to 58 DT points even though the Swans won well.

Other option is Buddy who has scored 204 against North

Robbo out injured so don't need to worry about that aspect ;)

[Capper]

Currently have it on Titch but not 100% as Robinson tagged JPK to 58 DT points even though the Swans won well.

Other option is Buddy who has scored 204 against North

Robbo out injured so don't need to worry about that aspect ;)

kids, avert your eyes. This will be a massacre

[Mat0369]

I'm still tossing up between Rocky and Sloane.