Which Forward?

[Jelemas]

I can afford any forward for Parfitt this week.

Poll should be a good scope who we think is the best forward options going forward this year out of:
Yeo, Kennedy, Higgins, Lynch, Roo and Heeney?

Left out Dahl, Macrae, Greene and Nank as most have them, plan to get them eventually or suspension rules them out currently. 

[GCSkiwi]

Haha I think your poll adequately reflects how uncertain forwards are at present...

Yeo, JJK or NRoo are probably the best options, and I would go with JJK for these reasons:

Yeo has a reputation for being a burn man, but his numbers so far are tempting, his history however shows his highest SC average in 5 previous seasons is 81, so 112 is maybe not what to expect from him. Unproven, so he's a risk.

NRoo is a KPP so will have up and down games, and might be rested - getting on in years. However his scoring isn't really in question, though it has trailed off a little in recent years. Again, unlikely to maintain his current average, and his BE is a little high (130) so you're probably paying too much for him right now.

JJK is another KPP so will also be up and down, but has a couple of years of decent history, priced about what you should expect him to average (~95), and will be on the way up with a BE of ~80. So he's the best combo of durability, history and price IMO.

[batt]

I am in a similar predicament with a similar preference for a R12 player and I think I'm leaning towards Higgins.

Burn man blah blah blah.  He's got a more stable role than someone like Yeo (who himself has burned in the past).  He's only $450k with a BE of 60-something and is averaging 100.

I know when he moved to North he claimed his body was in much better shape because of the approach they take - there's still some concern, but all we have to go on is a 21 game season and a hyperextended knee (which you can't really blame on the player's body).

Plus Norf's draw gets a little softer after Adelaide at Etihad this week.  The Eagles have a tough month and likely one of JJK and Yeo will dip in price and be ripe for picking if need be after their bye. 

[tor01doc]

I am in a similar predicament with a similar preference for a R12 player and I think I'm leaning towards Higgins.

Burn man blah blah blah.  He's got a more stable role than someone like Yeo (who himself has burned in the past).  He's only $450k with a BE of 60-something and is averaging 100.

I know when he moved to North he claimed his body was in much better shape because of the approach they take - there's still some concern, but all we have to go on is a 21 game season and a hyperextended knee (which you can't really blame on the player's body).

Plus Norf's draw gets a little softer after Adelaide at Etihad this week.  The Eagles have a tough month and likely one of JJK and Yeo will dip in price and be ripe for picking if need be after their bye.

Higgins missy-ing games affects his average

Sub a rookie's 50 in for the game he missed and 'his' average is only 90.8 and you potentially lose bench cover

Around the bye weeks, missing games for the odd niggle is a real problem

Last 4 years

Higgins 17 16 18 19
JJK       22 22 20 21 games

This year already 6 to 5 JJK vs Missy

[batt]

Higgins missy-ing games affects his average

Sub a rookie's 50 in for the game he missed and 'his' average is only 90.8 and you potentially lose bench cover

Around the bye weeks, missing games for the odd niggle is a real problem

Last 4 years

Higgins 17 16 18 19
JJK       22 22 20 21 games

This year already 6 to 5 JJK vs Missy

1. Those Higgins numbers are from 2009-2012 :o.  It's 21, 8, 5 at North.  Like I said, a hyperextended knee could happen to anyone so I'm not too fussed about last season.

2. We're going into the bye period so there's more flexibility to handle a late out w/ the extra trade.  After the byes you can almost guarantee a cover option is going to be scoring more than 50 for you.

3. If you applied the same missing games logic to every player in the AFL, everyone's SC teams would just consist of guys that play every game.

Ultimately, it just comes down to the body.  I can handle that risk. 

ily doc

[tor01doc]

Bending statistics to within a poofteenth of breaking them is how we make a living.  :-[

Good points but Missy will Missy more games - it is SC law

[Jelemas]

Yeah I think that all 6 players have some very serious pro's and con's.
Currently I have Yeo penciled in.
Nroo and Lynch's prices just don't seem like they are the right time and cash looks very important this year.
Higgins probably most tempts me at his price but his injuries probably scare me more than Yeos scoring.
Heeney I want to wait another week on (Higgins could be in the same boat).
And then I also strongly considered Kennedy but I think Yeo has more upside so its a classic risk vs reward situation.
JJK more consistent and should go around 95ave but Yeo could go 105+ but has a worse track record.