LaHug's Captains 2017 - Round 3

[LaHug]

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[LaHug]

Danger was good, Sloane bounced back, and Merrett backed up a big opening round. Round 3 is up next! For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. Requests probably won't happen this year but feel free to point out anyone obvious I've missed.

The facts & thoughts:

Treloar
Last 2: 127, 125 (126 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 117, 109, 87 (104 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 117, 87, 97 (100 avg)

Treloar has started the season with two very good scores and has cemented himself as a reliable option each week. Nothing huge standing out this week but I expect he'll continue his good form. Prediction - 115

Pendlebury
Last 2: 110, 135 (123 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 84, 113, 152 (116 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 84, 113 (99 avg)

Pendles has had a strong start but his form against the Swans has been much less exciting than it once was. The change came when games shifted to the SCG and on that alone I'd look at other options this week. Prediction - 105

D. Martin
Last 2: 86, 139 (113 avg)
Last 3 against West Coast: 68, 150, 101 (106 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 86, 139, 86 (104 avg)

Unfortunately, I've felt the need to mention Dusty this week to tell you to stay away. He's not consistent against the Eagles but, more worrying, he might play a bit more forward this week with Griffiths injured. His 86 last week was due to a lot of time forward so this is concerning. Prediction - 100

Gaff
Last 2: 115, 144 (130 avg)
Last 3 against Richmond: 108, 110, 83 (100 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 117, 100, 111 (109 avg)

Gaff has had a great start to the season and is also pretty good against the Tigers. Watch him continue to excel in a great Eagles midfield. Prediction - 110

Dangerfield
Last 2: 139, 118 (129 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 110, 71, 101 (94 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 139, 105, 95 (113 avg)

Don't shoot the messenger but Danger is not the best option this week. His first two rounds have shown that he's always worth a look, but he misses my top 5 this week because he's just not that impressive against the Dees. Geelong won by over 100 in their last matchup and Danger only had 110. Prediction - 115

Selwood
Last 2: 119, 99 (109 avg)
Last 3 against Melbourne: 126, 75, 121 (107 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 119, 79, 113 (104 avg)

Selwood has been a bit better against the Dees than his partner in crime but his form doesn't scream captain this week. Prediction - 110

Gray
Last 2: 138, 21 (80 avg)
Last 3 against Adelaide: 112, 127, 101 (113 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 138, 112, 81 (110 avg)

Bloody tempting option this week. Gray absolutely loves Showdowns and quickly reminded everyone last week that Round 1 was just a blip! Strongly consider if you have him. Prediction - 120

Fyfe
Last 2: 116, 110 (113 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 54, 109, 65 (76 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 110, 59, 122 (97 avg)

Another one here just to tell you to steer clear. Record against the Dogs leaves much to be desired but the biggest concern with Fyfe this week is his team. Ross said they'll blood youth and that could mean another big loss, surely hurting Fyfe's score. Prediction - 100

Rockliff
Last 2: 123, 127 (125 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 127, 90, 76 (98 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 127, 179, 184 (163 avg)

Holy crap. Look at how good Rocky is at Etihad?? His ceiling is huge so you really should consider him if he's in your team. It looks like the Saints will be missing Armitage and Steven, plus Hickey is no match for Martin, so Rocky will likely see plenty of the footy. Prediction - 130

Beams
Last 2: 113, 103 (108 avg)
Last 3 against St Kilda: 152, 126, 119 (132 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 102, 78, 91 (90 avg)

Beams might not quite have the scores this year that Rocky does but his record against the Saints is just screaming for you to look at him. Should go bang against that depleted Saints midfield. Prediction - 130

Murphy
Last 2: 125, 139 (132 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 101, 105, 102 (103 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 125, 139, 85 (116 avg)

Murphy is having an incredible start to the year and is pretty good against the Bombers. We'll see if he can keep it up but it'd still take a bit of guts to back a 130 average being sustainable. Prediction - 120

Merrett
Last 2: 140, 129 (135 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 115, 98, 80 (98 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 129, 115, 152 (132 avg)

Ok, so it looks like Merrett isn't taking any steps backwards with the banned Bombers back. Huge start to the season and there's no reason he won't continue it against a Blues team that leaked points to Melbourne and Richmond. Prediction - 130

Ablett
Last 2: 69, 105 (87 avg)
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 129, 157, 132 (139 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 105, 63, 78 (82 avg)

Those scores against the Hawks are so, so tempting but I'm not touching GAJ with the year he's had so far. Prediction - 105

T. Mitchell
Last 2: 125, 128 (127 avg)
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 132, 163, 131 (142 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 132, 131 (132 avg)

Just when you thought this round couldn't have more scoring potential, you get Tom Mitchell. He's played three games against the Suns for a career average of 142 against them. He's been just as good over there as in Sydney so the ground shouldn't worry him either. To cap it off, he's scored 125+ in both games this year so, if he doesn't reach his lofty history against the Suns, he should still be a solid pick. Prediction - 135

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, because of stats and/or gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Gawn
Last 2: 95, 111 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Geelong: 95, 139, 96 (110 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 111, 102, 88 (100 avg)

The ruckless Cats gave up 48 hitouts to Sandi and 46 to Preuss so let's lock Gawn in for 55 hitouts. That's 55 points off the bat. If he has an identical statline to last week in other stats, he hits 122. But wait, Hogan's out this week and there's this guy with a beard that can get a few goals in his place. I'm predicting at least 3 goals so let's just lock in a 140. Gutsy prediction - 140

The verdict:
1.   T. Mitchell (135)

2.   Rockliff (130)
3.   Beams (130)
4.   Merrett (130)
5.   Gray (120)

[Thunderbolts]

Another great article this week La Hug!! Tmitch for me

[LaHug]

Another great article this week La Hug!! Tmitch for me

Thanks mate. My only concern is that Danger reads these posts and will try extra hard just to prove me wrong :P

I'm going Titch C, Beams VC, and still regretting not starting Rocky :(

[GoLions]

Another great article this week La Hug!! Tmitch for me

Thanks mate. My only concern is that Danger reads these posts and will try extra hard just to prove me wrong :P

I'm going Titch C, Beams VC, and still regretting not starting Rocky :(

How could you not start the goat when we have unlimited trades?!

[GoLions]

Rocky C with Tmitch VC for me this week :)

[Ricochet]

Rocky C with Tmitch VC for me this week :)

Rocky for me too

[Chelskiman]

Titch as C this week I think.  Might throw the VC on Murphy though.

[WhatMate]

Got a feeling Titch is going to have a big one this week