Is Taranto worth it?

[Mat0369]

He averaged 148 in the TAC cup last year, that's pretty ridiculous. He has the possibility to be the highest scoring rookie we have had in years.

[Bully]

He averaged 148 in the TAC cup last year, that's pretty ridiculous. He has the possibility to be the highest scoring rookie we have had in years.

I think you have to look at his role and being a permanent forward it will be incredibly tough. If Greene can only average 90 despite being an All-Australian, Taranto will need to produce one of the great debut season's in AFL history. I think 70-75 will be his range, and then there's the issue of being dropped for Deledio. GWS also like to rotate their youngsters so be prepared for that eventuality.     

[Grufflez]

I worry about his long term viability as these 200k+ guys usually need to have a spot nailed down and they still take ages to reach a good profit of 150k.

[piesfan1989]

He might not get to a profit of 150k...it might only be 80 or so if deledio comes back but what you'll get in the mean-time is a fwd rookie that isn't on your field scoring occasional 40's

[Mat0369]

I think you have to look at his role and being a permanent forward it will be incredibly tough. If Greene can only average 90 despite being an All-Australian, Taranto will need to produce one of the great debut season's in AFL history. I think 70-75 will be his range, and then there's the issue of being dropped for Deledio. GWS also like to rotate their youngsters so be prepared for that eventuality.   

He will rotate through the middle more then Greene has and will. I'm thinking if he is averaging 148 in under 18's, half it and that's probably his ceiling. That's not that far off Heppell from your list.

[Grufflez]

He might not get to a profit of 150k...it might only be 80 or so if deledio comes back but what you'll get in the mean-time is a fwd rookie that isn't on your field scoring occasional 40's

Well, restructure so you don't have to play a 40 rookie onfield anyway would be my answer.

Between the huge amount a F/M eligible rookies and a F/M floating donut it should be easy enough to keep 40- scores of the field early.

[Gigantor]

At their 2016 bye

Mills(211k) +130k 70 ave missed one game
Oliver(207k) +101k 64 ave missed three games
Parish(203k) +121k 70 ave missed one game
Weitering(220k) +104k 72 ave missed two games (injury affected 23 in there)

These are the guys you need to look at when considering Taranto.
Weitering would have paid off if not for injury, Parish had the most ridiculous job security ever for a rookie, Olivers JS was above average too so you would have to compare Taranto to Mills.
Mills was one of the most impressive first year players we've seen for a while yet only netted you 130k if you held him until the byes

[piesfan1989]

He might not get to a profit of 150k...it might only be 80 or so if deledio comes back but what you'll get in the mean-time is a fwd rookie that isn't on your field scoring occasional 40's

Well, restructure so you don't have to play a 40 rookie onfield anyway would be my answer.

Between the huge amount a F/M eligible rookies and a F/M floating donut it should be easy enough to keep 40- scores of the field early.

Restructure to fit who in, exactly? Pickett, parfitt, eddy, houston, turner and florent will ALL post stinker 40 point games at one point so you're playing with fire by starting any one of them (turner and florent to a slightly lesser extent). The only other fwd rookie that I see as having a shred of consistency is WHE.

You're not picking taranto for his cash making ability, you're picking him because every other rookie is a shocking option. You have to pay for consistent scoring this year

[RaisyDaisy]

At their 2016 bye

Mills(211k) +130k 70 ave missed one game
Oliver(207k) +101k 64 ave missed three games
Parish(203k) +121k 70 ave missed one game
Weitering(220k) +104k 72 ave missed two games (injury affected 23 in there)

These are the guys you need to look at when considering Taranto.
Weitering would have paid off if not for injury, Parish had the most ridiculous job security ever for a rookie, Olivers JS was above average too so you would have to compare Taranto to Mills.
Mills was one of the most impressive first year players we've seen for a while yet only netted you 130k if you held him until the byes

This is the bottom line

You'll get a 65-70 average, and those guys above walked into best 22 spots. Taranto isn't

I really like Taranto, but rookies are simply a return on investment, so I think I need to take away the personal side and just look at it that way, which means I pass on him

[RaisyDaisy]

He might not get to a profit of 150k...it might only be 80 or so if deledio comes back but what you'll get in the mean-time is a fwd rookie that isn't on your field scoring occasional 40's

Well, restructure so you don't have to play a 40 rookie onfield anyway would be my answer.

Between the huge amount a F/M eligible rookies and a F/M floating donut it should be easy enough to keep 40- scores of the field early.

Restructure to fit who in, exactly? Pickett, parfitt, eddy, houston, turner and florent will ALL post stinker 40 point games at one point so you're playing with fire by starting any one of them (turner and florent to a slightly lesser extent). The only other fwd rookie that I see as having a shred of consistency is WHE.

You're not picking taranto for his cash making ability, you're picking him because every other rookie is a shocking option. You have to pay for consistent scoring this year

The thing you're forgetting is that the 10-20 points you lose by fielding say a Pickett over Taranto is that the 80k you've saved is getting you those lost 10-20 points somewhere else

[Grufflez]

He might not get to a profit of 150k...it might only be 80 or so if deledio comes back but what you'll get in the mean-time is a fwd rookie that isn't on your field scoring occasional 40's

Well, restructure so you don't have to play a 40 rookie onfield anyway would be my answer.

Between the huge amount a F/M eligible rookies and a F/M floating donut it should be easy enough to keep 40- scores of the field early.

Restructure to fit who in, exactly? Pickett, parfitt, eddy, houston, turner and florent will ALL post stinker 40 point games at one point so you're playing with fire by starting any one of them (turner and florent to a slightly lesser extent). The only other fwd rookie that I see as having a shred of consistency is WHE.

You're not picking taranto for his cash making ability, you're picking him because every other rookie is a shocking option. You have to pay for consistent scoring this year

Shocking is a strong word, some rookies will preform better than expected others poorer happens every year.
As for consistent scoring, for how long? till R5 or 6? that doesn't fill me with inspiration.

[Huttabito]

At their 2016 bye

Mills(211k) +130k 70 ave missed one game
Oliver(207k) +101k 64 ave missed three games
Parish(203k) +121k 70 ave missed one game
Weitering(220k) +104k 72 ave missed two games (injury affected 23 in there)

These are the guys you need to look at when considering Taranto.
Weitering would have paid off if not for injury, Parish had the most ridiculous job security ever for a rookie, Olivers JS was above average too so you would have to compare Taranto to Mills.
Mills was one of the most impressive first year players we've seen for a while yet only netted you 130k if you held him until the byes

Thanks for this Gigantor, just what I was needing to hear.

Rather use the money elsewhere.

[Grufflez]

At their 2016 bye

Mills(211k) +130k 70 ave missed one game
Oliver(207k) +101k 64 ave missed three games
Parish(203k) +121k 70 ave missed one game
Weitering(220k) +104k 72 ave missed two games (injury affected 23 in there)

These are the guys you need to look at when considering Taranto.
Weitering would have paid off if not for injury, Parish had the most ridiculous job security ever for a rookie, Olivers JS was above average too so you would have to compare Taranto to Mills.
Mills was one of the most impressive first year players we've seen for a while yet only netted you 130k if you held him until the byes

If you can't learn anything from this then it might be time for a ''special helmet''

Not saying that a 200k rookie isn't viable depending on money left over and especially structure dependent for  example..
I currently have Marchbank as the backline rookies fill me with the most uncertainty at the moment.
His JS is way better than Tarranto's but i am not expecting all that much from his scoring after JLT games minus Doch & Simpson.
Trying to find a way to get him out of my team also but at least Carlton's Draw could help.

[Gavdroid]

The way I look at these 200k+ rookies is not only should they score higher than a fringe cheaper rookie, if you do need to do a correctional trade, its easier to go down from 200k to 123k/117k than the other way around.

If you start him and he fails or gets dropped before 3 weeks, trade down, bank some cash, use it elswhere.
If you dont start him and he kills it good luck trying to get him in.

[My Chumps]

basically it comes to how you spend the 80K and what extra points you gain- Taranto I think will average 85/90 meaning a possible $250k rise but all be it slow. However if you use that on a rookie who still may go 70/80 price rise is more and quicker.
I am still tossing up which of WHE and Taranto to start.

I'd say very unlikely he averages that. I posted this list on the rookie thread but it's worth noting that no other first year player in history has registered that average over the course of a season. O'meara averaged 90 but spent a year playing NEAFL whilst GC prepared for their AFL debut.

Andrew Gaff - 61
Jordan Lewis - 62
Bryce Gibbs - 63
Angus Brayshaw - 65
Trent Cotchin - 66
Harley Bennell - 68
Marc Murphy - 70
Isaac Heeney - 70
Clayton Oliver - 70
Jack Viney - 71
Nat Fyfe - 72
Brett Deledio - 74
Ollie Wines - 75
Callum Mills - 77
Dustin Martin - 77
Joel Selwood - 77
Marcus Bontempelli - 78
David Swallow - 79
Dyson Heppell - 83
Jaeger O'Meara - 90 *was held back a year due to GC inception

Bit of a tough ask but finding averages from these blokes from rounds 1-10 would be a far more effective way to assess rookies worth. All rookies hit the wall eventually that drags down their season average, it's about what they can do in those early rounds for cash generation and place-holding.

Also no sub rule takes away some of the potential shockers from rooks that effect their average - probably not too many on your list that it applies to, but I remember Gaff getting vested a couple of times in his debut season, dragging down his average.