Brownlow 2017

[LordSneeze]

also LordSneeze ur votes for Billings are much lower than others i seen interesting

Saints is tough as there is normally a few standout players and votes could go either way. In a lot of cases I took the mids over the fwd mid.

I have him polling for 3 in R8 & 2 in R15
Brownlow Predictor has him as 2 in R7, 3 in R8, 3 in R14 & 1 in R20

In R7 I had Steven with 3, Scully with 2 & Acres with 1.
Steven to me was the 3 in that game. The 2 & 1 could go to any of 5-10 players went Scully was the standout GWS player and Acres as he was active thoughout

In R8 he was clear BOG

In R14 I had Steven as 3 again being more active around the middle of the ground. Dunstan as 2, Dunstan might not vote and could easily be be Billings, Stevens, Sinclair. Same with the 1 vote. I had Harbrow stealing the 1 vote.

R15 I had Walters taking the 3 with Billings 2 & Ross 1

R20  I had Acres with the 3, Gaff with 2 and Steele with 1. A lot might have given Billings 1 for his last minute Goal, but I didn't.

Id be very surprised if he got more than 8

[LordSneeze]

Sloane is guaranteed 11 votes minimum imo after rnd 5 possibly 12

Danger will have 9 b4 rnd 5 this game decides it

a matter of if Duncan gets the 2 or Danger

I had Danger on 9 after R4, but I could argue that he wont get the 3 in R1 or R3 and could as easily be on 6 or 7 instead of 9.

[elephants]

Sloane is guaranteed 11 votes minimum imo after rnd 5 possibly 12

Danger will have 9 b4 rnd 5 this game decides it

a matter of if Duncan gets the 2 or Danger

I'm certainly no expert, but one less possession and one extra goal surely gets Danger the two. He's Danger after all, the umps will be looking to pay him absolutely anything due to his GOAT status :p

[kilbluff1985]

yeah or could not get and in rnd 5 could easily go Jelly, Duncan/Tuohy

[RaisyDaisy]

also LordSneeze ur votes for Billings are much lower than others i seen interesting

I'm tipping he won't even get 10 votes

Where has all this love for Billings come from?

predictions the other guys have done on here

You need to remember that most of the counts done here are based off stats, fantasy scoring etc and not from actually watching the game, and looking at from an umpires perspective

That's why I only use predictors such as AFL.com, HS and a few other sites because they are votes done after the game by someone who watched it, and not based around stats

I like Jack Steven for Saints most votes at $5. Didn't have an amazing year, but just needs 3 or 4 BOG's and a couple of 1's to win it, which I think is possible. Ross and Billings don't have the history too, which is another reason I think Steven is work taking a shot on at that juicy price

[GoLions]

also LordSneeze ur votes for Billings are much lower than others i seen interesting

I'm tipping he won't even get 10 votes

Where has all this love for Billings come from?

predictions the other guys have done on here

You need to remember that most of the counts done here are based off stats, fantasy scoring etc and not from actually watching the game, and looking at from an umpires perspective

That's why I only use predictors such as AFL.com, HS and a few other sites because they are votes done after the game by someone who watched it, and not based around stats

I like Jack Steven for Saints most votes at $5. Didn't have an amazing year, but just needs 3 or 4 BOG's and a couple of 1's to win it, which I think is possible. Ross and Billings don't have the history too, which is another reason I think Steven is work taking a shot on at that juicy price

Tbf I'd say i watched 6 games a round, and usually asked others about the other 3 who (hopefully) watched it themselves. Break between finishing uni and starting work has been great :P

But obviously it's always hard to know how the umps are going to vote. I'd sometimes adjust my original top 3 as I'd think the umps may go for a proven vote-getter (hence my lack of votes for Oliver), or not give votes to a ruck (Ryder and Kreuz not polling great for me). But it was fun to do throughout the year, can't wait to see how close i end up being :)

[RaisyDaisy]

Rucks and newcomers are a nightmare for everyone!

Who knows what goes on in the umps mind lol

Kelly and Oliver "should"poll really well, but I wouldn't be surprised if they don''t

Will be curious to see how it pans out

[LordSneeze]

also LordSneeze ur votes for Billings are much lower than others i seen interesting

I'm tipping he won't even get 10 votes

Where has all this love for Billings come from?

predictions the other guys have done on here

You need to remember that most of the counts done here are based off stats, fantasy scoring etc and not from actually watching the game, and looking at from an umpires perspective

That's why I only use predictors such as AFL.com, HS and a few other sites because they are votes done after the game by someone who watched it, and not based around stats

I like Jack Steven for Saints most votes at $5. Didn't have an amazing year, but just needs 3 or 4 BOG's and a couple of 1's to win it, which I think is possible. Ross and Billings don't have the history too, which is another reason I think Steven is work taking a shot on at that juicy price

Totally agree, there is a big difference when doing it via watching compared to stats and fantasy. Without a shadow of doubt if you have the player in SC or DT you will be more attuned to seeing that players impact over others.

Id say 75% of my votes were done off watching the matches. I normally watch 3 or 4 live over the weekend with another 3 or 4 on fast forward during the week. The others are done off stats, news reports and other peoples input. There are clearly people who I think should poll higher or lower than my votes indicated. Duncan, Ryder, Selwood, Oliver, Gaff.

Always be careful using other peoples votes, personally I trust my own as then I can only blame myself if they are off the mark. 

[jvalles69]

Games I watch that I'm 100% convinced of vote wise I put in bold in my count, it's usually just the 3, but sometimes the 2 as well.  Haven't noticed if there are any markets to bet on each specific game yet though.

[RaisyDaisy]

Games I watch that I'm 100% convinced of vote wise I put in bold in my count, it's usually just the 3, but sometimes the 2 as well.  Haven't noticed if there are any markets to bet on each specific game yet though.

Yep there is on tab

[WhatMate]

Games I watch that I'm 100% convinced of vote wise I put in bold in my count, it's usually just the 3, but sometimes the 2 as well.  Haven't noticed if there are any markets to bet on each specific game yet though.

Yep there is on tab

BYObrownlow on SB too

[jvalles69]

Hmm..I'm seeing more and more polls with Gaff fairly high.  If you guys are right (those that have him high) he could be the next Voss/Black who consistently poll high regardless of how well they play.  Can see he's paying $26 to finish top 10 on bet365.

[RaisyDaisy]

Yeah I'm staying away from WCE all together

JJK, Gaff and even Smitch all a chance to get most votes

I'll be heading down to the TAB on Saturday to splash some cash

Been betting on the Brownlow since Bartel won and have only ever had 1 losing year. Hopefully this year produces a few $ too  ;)

[LordSneeze]

Games I watch that I'm 100% convinced of vote wise I put in bold in my count, it's usually just the 3, but sometimes the 2 as well.  Haven't noticed if there are any markets to bet on each specific game yet though.

Yep there is on tab

BYObrownlow on SB too

On SB there is full markets on every matches 3 vote winner.
I had a look last night and grabbed out 25ish markets that I feel are good value. Ill post them up when I get a chance.

[LordSneeze]

All These are off sportsbet odds,m but I would be comparing vs other sites for the best value before placing anything. Will likely multi some together.

Top 4 players to combine for 125+ votes @ 4.50
Top 5 (Any Order) D Martin, P Dangerfield, T Mitchell, J Kelly, R Sloane @ 4
Drew Petrie to poll a vote @ 2.40
Heath Shaw to poll a vote @ 2.75
Rory Sloane leader after Round 5 @ 2.5
Mitch Duncan to finish Top 20 @ 11
Mitch Duncan Top 10 finish @ 51
Ben Brown to finish Top 20 @ 11
Matt Crouch Most Votes last 8 rounds (Excluding Martin) @ 18
Marc Murphy vs Robbie Gray - Murphy @ 2.4
Ben Brown vs Joe Daniher - Brown @ 2.2
Bryce Gibbs vs Shaun Higgins - Gibbs @ 1.45
Dixon vs Wingard - Dixon @ 2.4
Viney vs Jones - Jones @ 1.87
Tom Mcdonald vs Walker - Tom Mcdonald @ 2.20
J Patton vs N Riewoldt - Riewoldt @ 3.05 (WTF)
Ward vs Neale - Ward @ 1.72
2nd Stringers - Rocky @ 5.5
GWS Rejects - Tyson @5.5
Most Votes Crows - M Crouch @ 5 (Showing him 1 behind Sloane)
Most votes GWS (Excluding Kelly) - Ward @ 1.75
Most Votes Melbourne - Jones @ 8
Most Votes North Melbourne - Brown @ 2.6
Most votes Port - Wines @ 2.1
Most Votes Richmond (Without Martin or Cothcin) - Grigg @ 2.75
Most Votes Saints - Steven @ 8
Most Voted WCE - Gaff @ 2.75
Most votes Sydney - Parker @ 7