Brownlow 2017

[kilbluff1985]

well u get bonus bets online and stuff is all

[elephants]

Will be at the pub tonight watching the game so will do all my brownlow betting there

Can't remember a year where there was so little value. Reckon I'll end up doing a couple of most teams votes bets and multis and that's it

Win, Top 3, Top 5, so many markets with too little value.

why don't u like betting online

Because I bet once a year, on the Brownlow - no point

CBF registering online, plus TAB is all cash, untraceable, no transaction history etc

Don't want them filthy banks knowing where all my hard earned goes :P

[jvalles69]

Checking out the markets on PointsBet which uses spread betting.  Anyone use this?  Looks super risky, but some tasty markets like Murphy over 13 votes.  Basically if you put $10 on the over then you get a multiplier of how many votes over he gets.  So if Murphy polls 17 then you WIN 4 x $10, but if he polls 11 votes then you LOSE 2 x $10.

[jvalles69]

They have multipliers, so for example Murphy x Gibbs the over is 142 votes.  I have Murphy x Gibbs being 21 x 15 = 294.  If I was right  and you put $10 on this market then 294 - 142 = 152.  152 x $10 = $1520 WIN.  :o. But if you lose by a bit you're basically flowered.  AFL predictor has the lowest counts of the 2 at 11 x 9 = 99.  142 - 99 = 43. 43 x $10 = $430 loss.  :o

You need brass balls to play this game!

[jvalles69]

Crown has a market of most 3 vote games without Danger/Dusty.  Bonts worth a $50 free bet @ $4.50.  I have Bont possibly polling 3 in 7 games whilst Kelly/Sloane in 5 games.

[kilbluff1985]

https://www.triplem.com.au/sport/afl/news/champion-data-reveal-their-brownlow-predictions

did u guys see this

Dusty's votes very low they have Ward beating Kelly too

[RaisyDaisy]

CD predictor is always crap. It's just based off their own stats and not what we/umpires see

[jvalles69]

https://www.triplem.com.au/sport/afl/news/champion-data-reveal-their-brownlow-predictions

did u guys see this

Dusty's votes very low they have Ward beating Kelly too

Lol, Oliver 2nd is a joke.

[kilbluff1985]

yeah i don't give it much respect

[Money Shot]

Would you guys say Martin/Mitchell/Kelly trifecta is a reasonably safe bet?

[WhatMate]

Ubet having hourly ultra bets first one is dusty 38+ at $3

[RaisyDaisy]

Would you guys say Martin/Mitchell/Kelly trifecta is a reasonably safe bet?

Kelly is the unknown

Most people/sites have Dusty, Kelly, Titch, Sloane as the Top 4, in various orders behind Dusty, but we just don't know with Kelly yet

Looks safeish, but because we don't know how Kelly will go (I expect Ward will get a lot of votes) I think the safest trifecta would be Dusty/Titch/Sloane, but that's just a safety bet - I don't personally think Sloane comes 3rd, more 4th or 5th for mine

Looking forward to the count tonight

[GoLions]

Would you guys say Martin/Mitchell/Kelly trifecta is a reasonably safe bet?

Kelly is the unknown

Most people/sites have Dusty, Kelly, Titch, Sloane as the Top 4, in various orders behind Dusty, but we just don't know with Kelly yet

Looks safeish, but because we don't know how Kelly will go (I expect Ward will get a lot of votes) I think the safest trifecta would be Dusty/Titch/Sloane, but that's just a safety bet - I don't personally think Sloane comes 3rd, more 4th or 5th for mine

Looking forward to the count tonight

I have Sloane ahead of Titch by a vote, and Kelly ahead of both (but as you said is an unknown). So i don't think any top 3 is a reasonably safe bet haha

[RaisyDaisy]

Yeah, there's nothing really clear cut other than Dusty winning

All of the others aren't paying much to place/Top 5 either

This is the first Brownlow in 10 years that I'm not really getting too involved in, just because I can't see any clear value

I've just put a couple of most team vote multi's on, which are more so for fun viewing more than anything and I did chuck a little bet on Dusty/Kelly quinella just because $4 is attractive enough odds for me, although it won't surprise me at all if Kelly bombs

Either way, for the first time ever I've spent bugger all on bets this year, so if none of them get up it won't bother me because their all optimistic bets chasing value, although I'll be cheering for them to get up of course, so at least it will be fun viewing and a cheap night out  ;D

[kilbluff1985]

btw if anyone knows of a live stream for it let us know pls

i know about https://7live.com.au but dont think they show afl stuff