LAHUG'S CAPTAINS 2017 - ROUND 1 - WELCOME BACK FOOTY!

[LaHug]

This is the seventh year in a row I've brought you LaHug's Captains!

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[LaHug]

It feels like it's been forever since we saw Sons of The West hold up that cup! Footy's back and I'm so so keen. For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. Requests probably won't happen this year but feel free to point out anyone obvious I've missed.

We have a partial lockout this week for the Richmond vs. Carlton game which means we can use the CAPTAINS LOOPHOLE!

How it works:

1.   Select a player from the Tigers or Blues as your VICE CAPTAIN.
2.   For now, set your captain to someone worthy of captaincy in another game in case you forget to change it.
3.   IF your VC scores really well, sub a non-playing player onto the field and set them as captain. It's round 1 so this should only be the case if you have a non-playing ruck rookie.
4.   Make sure you have an emergency in the position of your non-playing captain!

Note: This has risks if there are any late withdrawals as you won't have cover. I will not accept any responsibility for any such misfortune. Your team, your decision!

The facts & thoughts:

Murphy
2016 average: 80, Round 1 2016: 126
Last 3 against Richmond: 126, 92, 67 (95 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 85, 101, 126 (104 avg)

One of three guys I'm looking at solely to discuss VC options. He scored a 126 in Round 1 last year which would be worth locking in as a VC if he can do it again. I don't see any big reason to say he would though. Prediction - 105

Docherty
2016 average: 101, Round 1 2016: 99
Last 3 against Richmond: 99, 107, 52 (86 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 102, 108, 120 (110 avg)

He's only here because he's playing Thursday night and in a lot of teams. He has two scores in his career (both last year) that you'd be hoping he could replicate, 140 against Port and 134 against GWS. The safer bet would be just a ton. Prediction - 100

D. Martin
2016 average: 107, Round 1 2016: 75
Last 3 against Carlton: 75, 65, 53 (64 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 86, 132, 110 (109 avg)

Dusty's easily the best fantasy scorer playing on Thursday night but he's simply horrendous against the Blues. Only listed here because at least he's a loophole option. Assuming you don't have any of the above in your team, you can still loophole someone like Nankervis. You never know... Prediction - 80

Treloar
2016 average: 112, Round 1 2016: 117
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 119, 87, 98 (101 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 126, 115, 113 (118 avg)

Treloar was the best Magpie in Fantasy last year and will be again. He has plenty of tons to his name and is consistent enough to be a safe captain choice most weeks. Racked up 31 possies for 119 in this matchup last year. Prediction - 120

Viney
2016 average: 101, Round 1 2016: 115
Last 3 against St Kilda: 123, 118, 92 (111 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 123, 118, 122 (121 avg)

I doubt he'll be in many teams but Viney has a real case for Round 1 Captaincy. Despite Melbourne's inability to beat the Saints, Viney put up two good scores against them last year and has shown he's more than capable of putting up points at Etihad. Prediction - 120

Hannebery
2016 average: 108, Round 1 2016: 76
Last 3 against Port: 129, 146, 87 (121 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 114, 100, 129 (114 avg)

Hannebery has smashed the Power in their last two outings. They don't tag him and he takes advantage, racking up 36 and 34 disposals in their last two outings. Good enough at home to make him a real option for Round 1. Prediction - 125

J.P. Kennedy
2016 average: 108, Round 1 2016: 63
Last 3 against Port: 105, 151, 120 (125 avg)
Last 3 at SCG: 144, 131, 105 (127 avg)

JPK wasn't as good as Dan against the Power last year but has four straight tons against them, including a big 151 in 2015. He scores very well at the SCG and has to be a legitimate option if he's in your team. Prediction - 125

T. Mitchell
2016 average: 106, Round 1 2016: 132
Last 3 against Essendon: 130, 98 (114 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 141, 91, 87 (106 avg)

Any score against last year's Bombers needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt. That said, if you believe Titchell will improve now that he's been given the reigns of the Hawthorn midfield, you have to be tempted by that 130. Too much risk for me. Prediction - 110

Rockliff
2016 average: 117, Round 1 2016: 109
Last 3 against Gold Coast*: 101, 123, 190 (138 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon*: 101, 157, 93 (117 avg)

Remember that 190 against the Suns?? Rocky loves playing his cross-town rivals with four straight tons (if you exclude his injury-affected 0) and an average of 143 since 2014. The more recent scores have been the lower ones but with so many injuries and concussions, it's hard to analyse each score. Similarly, his history with Beams is so injury plagued that we can't say if he'll score better or worse with both of them healthy. I'm being conservative, despite me wanting to lean towards the high side. Prediction - 120
*excluding injury-affected 0

Fyfe
2016 average: 99, Round 1 2016: 54
Last 3 against Geelong: 116, 111, 109 (112 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 59, 122, 121 (101 avg)

Fyfe played five games last year. The first was that lovely game where his whole team sucked. The last was when he got injured. In between, he averaged 127 across three games. I think you'd be a very brave person to pick Fyfe as your C in Round 1 but I can't see why he won't score well. Prediction - 120

Dangerfield
2016 average: 118, Round 1 2016: 137
Last 3 against Fremantle: 130, 147, 66 (114 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 130, 142, 66 (113 avg)

There's a very good reason to spend all that cash on Dangerfield and that reason is that he's by far the best captain choice. He avergaged 6.5+ more than anyone not named Zach Merrett last year and had six scores 130+. Scores well against Freo and in Perth. A lock for me. Prediction - 130

Selwood
2016 average: 103, Round 1 2016: 85
Last 3 against Fremantle: 128, 107, 130 (122 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 128, 61, 138 (109 avg)

Often overshadowed by his dominant teammate, Selwood can score highly in his own right. Since Crowley left the Dockers, Selwood's scored 138, 130, 107, 128. He's very good against them and I expect him to be very good again. Prediction - 125

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, because of stats and/or gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Macrae
2016 average: 99, Round 1 2016: 107
Last 3 against Collingwood: 139, 116, 117 (124 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 107, 126, 139 (124 avg)

Forward status puts him in a lot of teams but he can still be your POD if you give him the C. Captaining someone that averaged 99 last year might seem crazy but Macrae has a great record against the Pies with three straight tons and that big 139 last year. You could do a lot worse. Gutsy prediction - 130

The verdict:
1.   Dangerfield (130)

2.   Selwood (125)
3.   J.P. Kennedy (125)
4.   Hannebery (125)
5.   Rockliff (120)

[Thunderbolts]

Welcome Back La Hug!!!

Love your articles and for me round 1 looks like it will be the Danger Man himself as capitano :)  8)

[jvalles69]

Whoo hoo!

Be interested to see what Roo is capable of against his fave team the Dees!  8)

[Senior]

Great write up to start the season!

Could you do Neale please?

[LaHug]

Requests probably won't happen this year but feel free to point out anyone obvious I've missed.

In 9 out of 10 cases, a player isn't mentioned because I looked at his numbers and there was no reason to pick him as captain. Roo and Neale are examples of this. I simply don't have time anymore with work and personal life to do requests. Sorry!

[pommyadam]

Fyfe and Dangerfield going head to head?
my body is ready

but which one to go as captain?

[kilbluff1985]

thoughts on Gawn pls

[Football Factory]

thoughts on Gawn pls

Awesome Beard

[LaHug]

thoughts on Gawn pls

Awesome Beard

I have to agree

[Grazz]

Onya Huggy, it's a thread I don't miss weekly through the season. Always ducking in to see what the clever folk here are thinking and wether i'm an idiot or not. Glad it's going round again.  ;)

[WhatMate]

thoughts on Gawn pls

Awesome Beard

I have to agree

From somewhere else:
'Will Max Gawn be solo? This will change many teams once this comes out, but making him captain might come with a few risks. He played five teams twice last year and the Saints were one of them… and they were his worst team to play with scores of 102 and 88, with both scores coming out of Etihad.'

[jvalles69]

Requests probably won't happen this year but feel free to point out anyone obvious I've missed.

In 9 out of 10 cases, a player isn't mentioned because I looked at his numbers and there was no reason to pick him as captain. Roo and Neale are examples of this. I simply don't have time anymore with work and personal life to do requests. Sorry!

All good man!  Although I'm pretty sure Roo has an epic record if I'm not mistaken.

[LaHug]

Requests probably won't happen this year but feel free to point out anyone obvious I've missed.

In 9 out of 10 cases, a player isn't mentioned because I looked at his numbers and there was no reason to pick him as captain. Roo and Neale are examples of this. I simply don't have time anymore with work and personal life to do requests. Sorry!

All good man!  Although I'm pretty sure Roo has an epic record if I'm not mistaken.

Pretty good: 99, 126, 112, 124, 125, 114 so probably worth a look. Other factors came into play though: age, couple of years of slow Round 1s, lower floor as a forward than our top 5. Probably could've been worth a mention though.

[jvalles69]

Requests probably won't happen this year but feel free to point out anyone obvious I've missed.

In 9 out of 10 cases, a player isn't mentioned because I looked at his numbers and there was no reason to pick him as captain. Roo and Neale are examples of this. I simply don't have time anymore with work and personal life to do requests. Sorry!

All good man!  Although I'm pretty sure Roo has an epic record if I'm not mistaken.

Pretty good: 99, 126, 112, 124, 125, 114 so probably worth a look. Other factors came into play though: age, couple of years of slow Round 1s, lower floor as a forward than our top 5. Probably could've been worth a mention though.

Problem is he's so damn expensive and he starts years off at a flying rate!  :(