Josh kelly

[mcpies]

ATM he is my side , I thought he would be a good breakout chance but not seeing much talk on him . . Am I that wrong ??

[Grufflez]

He is only going to keep getting better but is there enough pie for him a have a huge piece?
With Beams and even Murphy 50k cheaper and both proven 105+ players it's a risk with no real big payoff.

[Colley Dogs]

He's a lock in my team at M7.

18 / 18 / 24 games. Same draft class as Bonts. I believe he's about to breakout, and be given more responsibility in the Giants' midfield. His numbers over the past three seasons are pointing in that direction (forget the last two JLT games).

The most predictable thing that's going to happen is Beams will break down at some point. Murphy won't average 105 this season (and I'm a Blues fan). I'd rather pay the extra 40K for someone who can legitimately score in 2017 what Bonts and Cripps did last year.

I have him at M7 with Wigg, Brodie, Barrett, and Powell-Pepper sharing M8 duties.

For me the decision isn't Beams, but whether to downgrade Kelly to 0'Meara and upgrade one of the Rookies to Swallow at M8.

Why I prefer Kelly is that he's durable and should play the whole season, and I'm banking on him breaking out sufficiently to be a keeper at M8.

I don't trust the durability of O'Meara and Swallow, but even if they both played the first 15 games I see them as stepping stones into ultra-premiums. I don't believe either will average 105+ to make them a keeper. Therefore, I'll need less trades to complete my midfield with Kelly + Rookie than O'Meara + Swallow.

That's my two cents.

[crowls]

He's a lock in my team at M7.

18 / 18 / 24 games. Same draft class as Bonts. I believe he's about to breakout, and be given more responsibility in the Giants' midfield. His numbers over the past three seasons are pointing in that direction (forget the last two JLT games).

The most predictable thing that's going to happen is Beams will break down at some point. Murphy won't average 105 this season (and I'm a Blues fan). I'd rather pay the extra 40K for someone who can legitimately score in 2017 what Bonts and Cripps did last year.

I have him at M7 with Wigg, Brodie, Barrett, and Powell-Pepper sharing M8 duties.

For me the decision isn't Beams, but whether to downgrade Kelly to 0'Meara and upgrade one of the Rookies to Swallow at M8.

Why I prefer Kelly is that he's durable and should play the whole season, and I'm banking on him breaking out sufficiently to be a keeper at M8.

I don't trust the durability of O'Meara and Swallow, but even if they both played the first 15 games I see them as stepping stones into ultra-premiums. I don't believe either will average 105+ to make them a keeper. Therefore, I'll need less trades to complete my midfield with Kelly + Rookie than O'Meara + Swallow.

That's my two cents.

Understand your reasoning though I believe Beams will average over 110 and more than kelly.   The benefit in kelly is potential saved trade.   Risk is doesnt break out.   

[jfitty]

He's a lock in my team at M7.

18 / 18 / 24 games. Same draft class as Bonts. I believe he's about to breakout, and be given more responsibility in the Giants' midfield. His numbers over the past three seasons are pointing in that direction (forget the last two JLT games).

The most predictable thing that's going to happen is Beams will break down at some point. Murphy won't average 105 this season (and I'm a Blues fan). I'd rather pay the extra 40K for someone who can legitimately score in 2017 what Bonts and Cripps did last year.

I have him at M7 with Wigg, Brodie, Barrett, and Powell-Pepper sharing M8 duties.

For me the decision isn't Beams, but whether to downgrade Kelly to 0'Meara and upgrade one of the Rookies to Swallow at M8.

Why I prefer Kelly is that he's durable and should play the whole season, and I'm banking on him breaking out sufficiently to be a keeper at M8.

I don't trust the durability of O'Meara and Swallow, but even if they both played the first 15 games I see them as stepping stones into ultra-premiums. I don't believe either will average 105+ to make them a keeper. Therefore, I'll need less trades to complete my midfield with Kelly + Rookie than O'Meara + Swallow.

That's my two cents.

That's a big call I reckon!

I love Josh Kelly, but I can't see him breaking out enough this season to be an M8 keeper. Even if he manages to average 95-100 that's still not quite enough for mine. Plus at 470k he's not all that cheap either, the trade you save moving Swallow/O'Meara on might have to be used to upgrade Kelly anyway.

I admire your cojones, but don't think this is the year to start with Kelly.

[uncleswagy]

If Kelly played for almost any other team id lock him in and throw away the keys, that gws midfield is so tight though, cant see any of the players consistently churn out big scores to average 110+ week in week out with the amount of great players they have running through the guts

[frenzy]

Young, fit, durable, firing, good pre-season form, best 22 in a star studded lineup, not injury prone.

So it all comes down to what you think he'll average and is that good enough for your team.

I think he goes 90 - 100 and thats enough for me.

There's cheaper, higher scoring guns out there, but they gotta stay on the park to pay off.

[uncleswagy]

Young, fit, durable, firing, good pre-season form, best 22 in a star studded lineup, not injury prone.

So it all comes down to what you think he'll average and is that good enough for your team.

I think he goes 90 - 100 and thats enough for me.

There's cheaper, higher scoring guns out there, but they gotta stay on the park to pay off.

90-100 is good enough for a forward or a defender, mid field though, not even close. you want them getting you 110+ ideally when your teams fully upgraded and no less than 105.

If you pick him and he scores that range hes not making you enough money as a stepping stone and not enough points to be a genuine premo

[crowls]

Young, fit, durable, firing, good pre-season form, best 22 in a star studded lineup, not injury prone.

So it all comes down to what you think he'll average and is that good enough for your team.

I think he goes 90 - 100 and thats enough for me.

There's cheaper, higher scoring guns out there, but they gotta stay on the park to pay off.

90-100 is good enough for a forward or a defender, mid field though, not even close. you want them getting you 110+ ideally when your teams fully upgraded and no less than 105.

If you pick him and he scores that range hes not making you enough money as a stepping stone and not enough points to be a genuine premo

this

[StuL]

Find myself agreeing with the no arguments more than yes.

[frenzy]

Young, fit, durable, firing, good pre-season form, best 22 in a star studded lineup, not injury prone.

So it all comes down to what you think he'll average and is that good enough for your team.

I think he goes 90 - 100 and thats enough for me.

There's cheaper, higher scoring guns out there, but they gotta stay on the park to pay off.

90-100 is good enough for a forward or a defender, mid field though, not even close. you want them getting you 110+ ideally when your teams fully upgraded and no less than 105.

If you pick him and he scores that range hes not making you enough money as a stepping stone and not enough points to be a genuine premo

Firstly, let me say that I totally agree with what you have said and it's a common theme for all not quite premos.

But we SCer's have been blessed in recent years with expansion clubs and a plethora of rookies to start the season. I don't see enough rookies available for round 1 to be going all genuine guns and rookies on field. ( I could be wrong ) This years crop does not excite me very much at all, especially in the MIDS.

So I would rather start the season with 2 of these Kelly, Darcy Parish, Dom Tyson types, at the expense of 1 genuine premo and 1 rookie with dodgey JS. If it turns pear shaped, I can downgrade to a rookie getting games, go sideways to another not quite premo and even upgrade them just like a correctional trade. Lot easier to upgrade from $450-500K, than some rookie who gets dropped after a game or two.

Am not saying your wrong and I'm right. Let's just call it plan B.

[mcpies]

Does the injury to coniglio make Kelly a little more tempting .??

[fasttrack13]

Does the injury to coniglio make Kelly a little more tempting .??

Lock... will go atleast 95+ over the opening rounds, coniglio inside/outside spot will go to kelly now who has proven he can win contested ball. Plus he's similar to the bont in the way he doesn't need much of it to score well scored 89 points from 16 touches in NAB 3. I personally think he is and will be there No.1 midfielder with coniglio out now.

Few NAB stats i like:
Averaging 40% of his touches in contested situations - Up 6% on last year
Averaged 4.3 Clearances - Up 1.7 per game from last year

This proves to me that he will spend more time in at the stoppages this year and has just been helped further by coniglio being injured. Given those numbers, should see a significant rise in his numbers...

[Grufflez]

Does the injury to coniglio make Kelly a little more tempting .??

Lock... will go atleast 95+ over the opening rounds, coniglio inside/outside spot will go to kelly now who has proven he can win contested ball. Plus he's similar to the bont in the way he doesn't need much of it to score well scored 89 points from 16 touches in NAB 3. I personally think he is and will be there No.1 midfielder with coniglio out now.

Few NAB stats i like:
Averaging 40% of his touches in contested situations - Up 6% on last year
Averaged 4.3 Clearances - Up 1.7 per game from last year

This proves to me that he will spend more time in at the stoppages this year and has just been helped further by coniglio being injured. Given those numbers, should see a significant rise in his numbers...

Were these stats taken with GWS's best 18 on ground every match?
If key midfield players missed any of those games that stats are skewed and of course Kelly's clearances would lift and in turn contested.

[fasttrack13]

Does the injury to coniglio make Kelly a little more tempting .??

Lock... will go atleast 95+ over the opening rounds, coniglio inside/outside spot will go to kelly now who has proven he can win contested ball. Plus he's similar to the bont in the way he doesn't need much of it to score well scored 89 points from 16 touches in NAB 3. I personally think he is and will be there No.1 midfielder with coniglio out now.

Few NAB stats i like:
Averaging 40% of his touches in contested situations - Up 6% on last year
Averaged 4.3 Clearances - Up 1.7 per game from last year

This proves to me that he will spend more time in at the stoppages this year and has just been helped further by coniglio being injured. Given those numbers, should see a significant rise in his numbers...

Were these stats taken with GWS's best 18 on ground every match?
If key midfield players missed any of those games that stats are skewed and of course Kelly's clearances would lift and in turn contested.

Game where kelly got 16 touches for 89 points - he had 41% TOG... each key midfielder had over 80%TOG except shiel
In the last game 24 touches for 101 - each of the key GWS midfielders played over 73% game time

I get what your saying... but i don't think it applies at all considering he is in the best 3 of their midfielders (Ward, Shiel, Kelly) and will more than likely start on ball which will add another string to his game increasing pretty much every stat like we are seeing. And as i previously said, is helped by coniglio's injury