Jarrod Witts

[Jimmykidd]

I think it's slightly different as you only have two ruck spots and six forward spots so you have more scope to average things out.

Correct. The thing you need to do is compare the points lost from the top ruck to Witts compared to the top forward to Taranto. You need Witts to outscore Taranto by 10-20 points for it to be considered even.

That's completely false. I have Higgins, Ryder & Witts. A lot of others have Goldy, WHE & Taranto. So it's 90 + 90 + 75 versus 110 + 75 + 75. I'd also like to think I have saved a trade. Then there's the forward loophole option I will have for 6 rounds.

You have Ryder and Nank? Surely just need 1?

[Bully]

That's completely false. I have Higgins, Ryder & Witts. A lot of others have Goldy, WHE & Taranto. So it's 90 + 90 + 75 versus 110 + 75 + 75. I'd also like to think I have saved a trade. Then there's the forward loophole option I will have for 6 rounds.

The top ruck averages close to 120 points per season, the top forward averages close to 100 points per season. The second best ruck scores around 108, the next best 5 forwards are all under 100 using last year as the measuring stick. So you need to compare your bottom ruck to the 2nd best ruck while you can compare your bottom forward to F2-10 from other sides. The fact is you if you think Taranto will average 70, it means he is 20 points away from the F2-F10. Witts needs to average 20 points less then the next best ruck to make it comparable. So you need Witts to average 88 to make up the lost points at the R2 position.

First thing is Goldy will not average 120 this year, I would put my house on it. Second thing is this year will be generally weak in the forward line, perhaps Dahlhaus & Macrae average 100+ but the rest are likely to average 90-95. Third thing is I want the top scoring ruck by round 6, Gawn is my prediction but we'll have to wait and see. It could even be Martin or Hickey or Grundy. You are also backing Taranto to play enough consecutive games to make the dough. Deledio is 4 weeks away so the pressure is on. The same goes for WHE who scored 75+ on one occasion last year. In all your theorising you forget that Witts is actually a rookie who will be upgraded in due course.

I think it's slightly different as you only have two ruck spots and six forward spots so you have more scope to average things out.

Correct. The thing you need to do is compare the points lost from the top ruck to Witts compared to the top forward to Taranto. You need Witts to outscore Taranto by 10-20 points for it to be considered even.

That's completely false. I have Higgins, Ryder & Witts. A lot of others have Goldy, WHE & Taranto. So it's 90 + 90 + 75 versus 110 + 75 + 75. I'd also like to think I have saved a trade. Then there's the forward loophole option I will have for 6 rounds.

You have Ryder and Nank? Surely just need 1?

Both work well as insurance and for loopholing. For example, Butler has the E this week, if an 80 comes through I swing Ryder to R2 and Witts to the bench. This is workable for 6 rounds with Butler & Eddy alternating. I'm also picking Ryder as I believe he can be a keeper. At some stage Nank will go to F7 and will be loopholed with Ryder.

[Jimmykidd]

That's completely false. I have Higgins, Ryder & Witts. A lot of others have Goldy, WHE & Taranto. So it's 90 + 90 + 75 versus 110 + 75 + 75. I'd also like to think I have saved a trade. Then there's the forward loophole option I will have for 6 rounds.

The top ruck averages close to 120 points per season, the top forward averages close to 100 points per season. The second best ruck scores around 108, the next best 5 forwards are all under 100 using last year as the measuring stick. So you need to compare your bottom ruck to the 2nd best ruck while you can compare your bottom forward to F2-10 from other sides. The fact is you if you think Taranto will average 70, it means he is 20 points away from the F2-F10. Witts needs to average 20 points less then the next best ruck to make it comparable. So you need Witts to average 88 to make up the lost points at the R2 position.

First thing is Goldy will not average 120 this year, I would put my house on it. Second thing is this year will be generally weak in the forward line, perhaps Dahlhaus & Macrae average 100+ but the rest are likely to average 90-95. Third thing is I want the top scoring ruck by round 6, Gawn is my prediction but we'll have to wait and see. It could even be Martin or Hickey or Grundy. You are also backing Taranto to play enough consecutive games to make the dough. Deledio is 4 weeks away so the pressure is on. The same goes for WHE who scored 75+ on one occasion last year. In all your theorising you forget that Witts is actually a rookie who will be upgraded in due course.

I think it's slightly different as you only have two ruck spots and six forward spots so you have more scope to average things out.

Correct. The thing you need to do is compare the points lost from the top ruck to Witts compared to the top forward to Taranto. You need Witts to outscore Taranto by 10-20 points for it to be considered even.

That's completely false. I have Higgins, Ryder & Witts. A lot of others have Goldy, WHE & Taranto. So it's 90 + 90 + 75 versus 110 + 75 + 75. I'd also like to think I have saved a trade. Then there's the forward loophole option I will have for 6 rounds.

You have Ryder and Nank? Surely just need 1?

Both work well as insurance and for loopholing. For example, Butler has the E this week, if an 80 comes through I swing Ryder to R2 and Witts to the bench. This is workable for 6 rounds with Butler & Eddy alternating. I'm also picking Ryder as I believe he can be a keeper. At some stage Nank will go to F7 and will be loopholed with Ryder.

That's some plan! Sounds too fiddly for me haha. All the best to ya

[tkringle]

First thing is Goldy will not average 120 this year, I would put my house on it. Second thing is this year will be generally weak in the forward line, perhaps Dahlhaus & Macrae average 100+ but the rest are likely to average 90-95. Third thing is I want the top scoring ruck by round 6, Gawn is my prediction but we'll have to wait and see. It could even be Martin or Hickey or Grundy. You are also backing Taranto to play enough consecutive games to make the dough. Deledio is 4 weeks away so the pressure is on. The same goes for WHE who scored 75+ on one occasion last year. In all your theorising you forget that Witts is actually a rookie who will be upgraded in due course.

What moves get you to upgrading to the best ruck at round 6 though?

if tooserious calculator is accurate then Witts averaging 75 gets him to about  ~295K by the end of round 5. You still need to make up ~250K (assuming Gawn drops to $550K). What gets you there?

[Gavdroid]

First thing is Goldy will not average 120 this year, I would put my house on it. Second thing is this year will be generally weak in the forward line, perhaps Dahlhaus & Macrae average 100+ but the rest are likely to average 90-95. Third thing is I want the top scoring ruck by round 6, Gawn is my prediction but we'll have to wait and see. It could even be Martin or Hickey or Grundy. You are also backing Taranto to play enough consecutive games to make the dough. Deledio is 4 weeks away so the pressure is on. The same goes for WHE who scored 75+ on one occasion last year. In all your theorising you forget that Witts is actually a rookie who will be upgraded in due course.

What moves get you to upgrading to the best ruck at round 6 though?

if tooserious calculator is accurate then Witts averaging 75 gets him to about  ~295K by the end of round 5. You still need to make up ~250K (assuming Gawn drops to $550K). What gets you there?

I'd just be guessing as I'm no expert, but this may be where the mid-pricers come in. A player starting at 250-300k (looking at a Swallow/Thurlow type) with a couple of weeks of price rises may be enough to generate the cash with a downgrade to a cheaper rookie

[Bully]

First thing is Goldy will not average 120 this year, I would put my house on it. Second thing is this year will be generally weak in the forward line, perhaps Dahlhaus & Macrae average 100+ but the rest are likely to average 90-95. Third thing is I want the top scoring ruck by round 6, Gawn is my prediction but we'll have to wait and see. It could even be Martin or Hickey or Grundy. You are also backing Taranto to play enough consecutive games to make the dough. Deledio is 4 weeks away so the pressure is on. The same goes for WHE who scored 75+ on one occasion last year. In all your theorising you forget that Witts is actually a rookie who will be upgraded in due course.

What moves get you to upgrading to the best ruck at round 6 though?

if tooserious calculator is accurate then Witts averaging 75 gets him to about  ~295K by the end of round 5. You still need to make up ~250K (assuming Gawn drops to $550K). What gets you there?

Will have to wait and see but there should be viable options to make 250k. Swallow to Myers is one example. I'm also tipping Witts to be over 300k by that stage, 75 is a conservative estimate.

[Gavdroid]

First thing is Goldy will not average 120 this year, I would put my house on it. Second thing is this year will be generally weak in the forward line, perhaps Dahlhaus & Macrae average 100+ but the rest are likely to average 90-95. Third thing is I want the top scoring ruck by round 6, Gawn is my prediction but we'll have to wait and see. It could even be Martin or Hickey or Grundy. You are also backing Taranto to play enough consecutive games to make the dough. Deledio is 4 weeks away so the pressure is on. The same goes for WHE who scored 75+ on one occasion last year. In all your theorising you forget that Witts is actually a rookie who will be upgraded in due course.

What moves get you to upgrading to the best ruck at round 6 though?

if tooserious calculator is accurate then Witts averaging 75 gets him to about  ~295K by the end of round 5. You still need to make up ~250K (assuming Gawn drops to $550K). What gets you there?

Will have to wait and see but there should be viable options to make 250k. Swallow to Myers is one example. I'm also tipping Witts to be over 300k by that stage, 75 is a conservative estimate.

Also you dont have to get all the money for the trade in 1 week. Could easily have 50k odd in the bank before making the upgrade

[Mat0369]

First thing is Goldy will not average 120 this year, I would put my house on it. Second thing is this year will be generally weak in the forward line, perhaps Dahlhaus & Macrae average 100+ but the rest are likely to average 90-95. Third thing is I want the top scoring ruck by round 6, Gawn is my prediction but we'll have to wait and see. It could even be Martin or Hickey or Grundy. You are also backing Taranto to play enough consecutive games to make the dough. Deledio is 4 weeks away so the pressure is on. The same goes for WHE who scored 75+ on one occasion last year. In all your theorising you forget that Witts is actually a rookie who will be upgraded in due course.

I'm not saying Goldy will average 120, I'm saying the top ruck at the end of the year could very well average 120 based on recent history. The second best guy is likely to average 105+. If you think that you can start with a top 2 guy then you will be good for 105 in one of your ruck spots minimum for the season. If you are going to start a rookie in that spot you want them to score 20 points less at the minimum or you will be falling behind.

[Bully]

First thing is Goldy will not average 120 this year, I would put my house on it. Second thing is this year will be generally weak in the forward line, perhaps Dahlhaus & Macrae average 100+ but the rest are likely to average 90-95. Third thing is I want the top scoring ruck by round 6, Gawn is my prediction but we'll have to wait and see. It could even be Martin or Hickey or Grundy. You are also backing Taranto to play enough consecutive games to make the dough. Deledio is 4 weeks away so the pressure is on. The same goes for WHE who scored 75+ on one occasion last year. In all your theorising you forget that Witts is actually a rookie who will be upgraded in due course.

I'm not saying Goldy will average 120, I'm saying the top ruck at the end of the year could very well average 120 based on recent history. The second best guy is likely to average 105+. If you think that you can start with a top 2 guy then you will be good for 105 in one of your ruck spots minimum for the season. If you are going to start a rookie in that spot you want them to score 20 points less at the minimum or you will be falling behind.

Sorry doesn't compute. Let's say Sandi averages 110 & Goldy averages 105. By round 6 I bring in Gawn (or whoever) and you are stuck with a guy averaging 105. In that scenario it's you who is losing points on a weekly basis. Bear in mind that we are the first week into the culling season.

[tkringle]

First thing is Goldy will not average 120 this year, I would put my house on it. Second thing is this year will be generally weak in the forward line, perhaps Dahlhaus & Macrae average 100+ but the rest are likely to average 90-95. Third thing is I want the top scoring ruck by round 6, Gawn is my prediction but we'll have to wait and see. It could even be Martin or Hickey or Grundy. You are also backing Taranto to play enough consecutive games to make the dough. Deledio is 4 weeks away so the pressure is on. The same goes for WHE who scored 75+ on one occasion last year. In all your theorising you forget that Witts is actually a rookie who will be upgraded in due course.

What moves get you to upgrading to the best ruck at round 6 though?

if tooserious calculator is accurate then Witts averaging 75 gets him to about  ~295K by the end of round 5. You still need to make up ~250K (assuming Gawn drops to $550K). What gets you there?

Will have to wait and see but there should be viable options to make 250k. Swallow to Myers is one example. I'm also tipping Witts to be over 300k by that stage, 75 is a conservative estimate.

Letting a midpricer go is the only option I can see to get there that early. Swallow averaging 90 would have only made you ~80k at that stage.. cash cows also would not have moo'd yet..

I like the Witts idea, but it might be taking you longer than round 6 to get an upgraded ruck unless I'm missing something

[Bully]

First thing is Goldy will not average 120 this year, I would put my house on it. Second thing is this year will be generally weak in the forward line, perhaps Dahlhaus & Macrae average 100+ but the rest are likely to average 90-95. Third thing is I want the top scoring ruck by round 6, Gawn is my prediction but we'll have to wait and see. It could even be Martin or Hickey or Grundy. You are also backing Taranto to play enough consecutive games to make the dough. Deledio is 4 weeks away so the pressure is on. The same goes for WHE who scored 75+ on one occasion last year. In all your theorising you forget that Witts is actually a rookie who will be upgraded in due course.

What moves get you to upgrading to the best ruck at round 6 though?

if tooserious calculator is accurate then Witts averaging 75 gets him to about  ~295K by the end of round 5. You still need to make up ~250K (assuming Gawn drops to $550K). What gets you there?

Will have to wait and see but there should be viable options to make 250k. Swallow to Myers is one example. I'm also tipping Witts to be over 300k by that stage, 75 is a conservative estimate.

Letting a midpricer go is the only option I can see to get there that early. Swallow averaging 90 would have only made you ~80k at that stage.. cash cows also would not have moo'd yet..

I like the Witts idea, but it might be taking you longer than round 6 to get an upgraded ruck unless I'm missing something

If its round 7 then no big deal, but it will be done before the round 9 bye. As Gavdroid mentioned, it may entail a double downgrade. Will have to assess all options at the time.

[Mat0369]

Sorry doesn't compute. Let's say Sandi averages 110 & Goldy averages 105. By round 6 I bring in Gawn (or whoever) and you are stuck with a guy averaging 105. In that scenario it's you who is losing points on a weekly basis. Bear in mind that we are the first week into the culling season.

Lets say Goldy averages 110 and Sandi 105 and they are the top 2. I don't have to make a single trade at that point while you're stuck trying to scramble to bring him in.  What about Goldy at 110 and Sandi at 100 and Sandi is 100k difference from number 1? It's a simple downgrade and in comes the top ruck.

History says Goldstein will be in the top few rucks and will score enough to outscore pretty much everyone else. You're clutching at straws if you think otherwise. He is the safest bet of any ruck to be top 2 in the league.

[Bully]

Sorry doesn't compute. Let's say Sandi averages 110 & Goldy averages 105. By round 6 I bring in Gawn (or whoever) and you are stuck with a guy averaging 105. In that scenario it's you who is losing points on a weekly basis. Bear in mind that we are the first week into the culling season.

Lets say Goldy averages 110 and Sandi 105 and they are the top 2. I don't have to make a single trade at that point while you're stuck trying to scramble to bring him in.  What about Goldy at 110 and Sandi at 100 and Sandi is 100k difference from number 1? It's a simple downgrade and in comes the top ruck.

History says Goldstein will be in the top few rucks and will score enough to outscore pretty much everyone else. You're clutching at straws if you think otherwise. He is the safest bet of any ruck to be top 2 in the league.

The bottom line is I don't believe Goldy will be the top scoring ruck. You seem to think he will suddenly reverse his historical scoring in losses and with Daw, I beg to differ. My aim is to get the guy who is scoring 115+, that is why I'm holding off making a selection. There's no clutching at straws whatsoever. I may even bring in Goldy if he proves me wrong, that is the flexibility I'm giving myself.

[Gavdroid]

Sorry doesn't compute. Let's say Sandi averages 110 & Goldy averages 105. By round 6 I bring in Gawn (or whoever) and you are stuck with a guy averaging 105. In that scenario it's you who is losing points on a weekly basis. Bear in mind that we are the first week into the culling season.

Lets say Goldy averages 110 and Sandi 105 and they are the top 2. I don't have to make a single trade at that point while you're stuck trying to scramble to bring him in.  What about Goldy at 110 and Sandi at 100 and Sandi is 100k difference from number 1? It's a simple downgrade and in comes the top ruck.

History says Goldstein will be in the top few rucks and will score enough to outscore pretty much everyone else. You're clutching at straws if you think otherwise. He is the safest bet of any ruck to be top 2 in the league.

Will be really interesting to see how your teams go this year Bully and Mat!

[MontyJnr]

Sorry doesn't compute. Let's say Sandi averages 110 & Goldy averages 105. By round 6 I bring in Gawn (or whoever) and you are stuck with a guy averaging 105. In that scenario it's you who is losing points on a weekly basis. Bear in mind that we are the first week into the culling season.

Lets say Goldy averages 110 and Sandi 105 and they are the top 2. I don't have to make a single trade at that point while you're stuck trying to scramble to bring him in.  What about Goldy at 110 and Sandi at 100 and Sandi is 100k difference from number 1? It's a simple downgrade and in comes the top ruck.

History says Goldstein will be in the top few rucks and will score enough to outscore pretty much everyone else. You're clutching at straws if you think otherwise. He is the safest bet of any ruck to be top 2 in the league.

The bottom line is I don't believe Goldy will be the top scoring ruck. You seem to think he will suddenly reverse his historical scoring in losses and with Daw, I beg to differ. My aim is to get the guy who is scoring 115+, that is why I'm holding off making a selection. There's no clutching at straws whatsoever. I may even bring in Goldy if he proves me wrong, that is the flexibility I'm giving myself.

You preach about the 'flexibility' you're giving yourself in the ruck, but you've given yourself barely any wiggle room up forward with a Higgins, Ryder, Roughy & Nank "set and forget" combo.

What if one (or more) of Nroo, Greene, Buddy, Wingard etc. burst out of the blocks with a 110 average? All the forward premiums have cons like the rucks, so why isn't that a "wait and see" line as well?

The Zach Merrett of 2017 could also be completely unknown to everyone right now. Do you give yourself an opportunity to bring that guy in and correct all these midpricers if their scoring is a 15-25 points off the Top 6 standard?