Bully's Boys 2017

[Bully]

And here's Goldy's 2016 scores stacked up against this year's fixture.

vs West Coast (110)
vs Geelong (83)
vs GWS (99)
vs Bulldogs (49 & 127)
vs Freo (121) ** against Sandi (44 & 116)
vs GC (125) ** against Witts (134)
vs Adelaide (126, 99, 124)
vs Sydney (82 & 112)

Solid numbers but not scarily good that he becomes financially unobtainable. My instincts tell me he'll hit 520k at some point prior to the bye.

That's all good but that is the past he might go worse or he might go better no one knows how he will go or if his price will rise or fall that it is all just hearsay  ;)

His price will fall, I'm confident of that.

1) He's coming off a knee injury which looks to be degenerative
2) His average dropped to 98.9 with Daw in the team (can expect Preuss to have similar impact)
3) His average drops in losses - 2015 (141 in wins, 108 in losses), 2016 (119 in wins, 99 in losses)
4) North have been gutted in the midfield losing Wells, Dal Santo & Harvey.
5) The draw looks as tough as it could be with six 2016 finalists in the firs 8 rounds and Sandi thrown in the mix. Can see a 0-5 start to the year.
6) As Uncleswagy pointed out, most players above 550k drop in price

I take your point that the past is the past but unless you have a crystal ball then history is all we have to make informed decisions. I don't think Goldy is a bad pick but there's no way he produces anything resembling 2015. My guess is 105 for the year.

[uncleswagy]

And here's Goldy's 2016 scores stacked up against this year's fixture.

vs West Coast (110)
vs Geelong (83)
vs GWS (99)
vs Bulldogs (49 & 127)
vs Freo (121) ** against Sandi (44 & 116)
vs GC (125) ** against Witts (134)
vs Adelaide (126, 99, 124)
vs Sydney (82 & 112)

Solid numbers but not scarily good that he becomes financially unobtainable. My instincts tell me he'll hit 520k at some point prior to the bye.

That's all good but that is the past he might go worse or he might go better no one knows how he will go or if his price will rise or fall that it is all just hearsay  ;)

His price will fall, I'm confident of that.

1) He's coming off a knee injury which looks to be degenerative
2) His average dropped to 98.9 with Daw in the team (can expect Preuss to have similar impact)
3) His average drops in losses - 2015 (141 in wins, 108 in losses), 2016 (119 in wins, 99 in losses)
4) North have been gutted in the midfield losing Wells, Dal Santo & Harvey.
5) The draw looks as tough as it could be with six 2016 finalists in the firs 8 rounds and Sandi thrown in the mix. Can see a 0-5 start to the year.
6) As Uncleswagy pointed out, most players above 550k drop in price

I take your point that the past is the past but unless you have a crystal ball then history is all we have to make informed decisions. I don't think Goldy is a bad pick but there's no way he produces anything resembling 2015. My guess is 105 for the year.

All fair points except number 4  something ive said before in other threads and thats harvey has not been a midfielder for at least 3 years and even before that he wasnt in the guts much, and nicky dal played more outside than inside. you can also argue wells wont hurt too much considering he barley played the three years before last (hence his rookie price last year) and that didnt stop goldy from going big

Also as much as i love Pruess for us, I'm not sure he'll even play. remember all those talks about Currie a couple years back and he rarely saw time in the ones

[Bully]

And here's Goldy's 2016 scores stacked up against this year's fixture.

vs West Coast (110)
vs Geelong (83)
vs GWS (99)
vs Bulldogs (49 & 127)
vs Freo (121) ** against Sandi (44 & 116)
vs GC (125) ** against Witts (134)
vs Adelaide (126, 99, 124)
vs Sydney (82 & 112)

Solid numbers but not scarily good that he becomes financially unobtainable. My instincts tell me he'll hit 520k at some point prior to the bye.

That's all good but that is the past he might go worse or he might go better no one knows how he will go or if his price will rise or fall that it is all just hearsay  ;)

His price will fall, I'm confident of that.

1) He's coming off a knee injury which looks to be degenerative
2) His average dropped to 98.9 with Daw in the team (can expect Preuss to have similar impact)
3) His average drops in losses - 2015 (141 in wins, 108 in losses), 2016 (119 in wins, 99 in losses)
4) North have been gutted in the midfield losing Wells, Dal Santo & Harvey.
5) The draw looks as tough as it could be with six 2016 finalists in the firs 8 rounds and Sandi thrown in the mix. Can see a 0-5 start to the year.
6) As Uncleswagy pointed out, most players above 550k drop in price

I take your point that the past is the past but unless you have a crystal ball then history is all we have to make informed decisions. I don't think Goldy is a bad pick but there's no way he produces anything resembling 2015. My guess is 105 for the year.

All fair points except number 4  something ive said before in other threads and thats harvey has not been a midfielder for at least 3 years and even before that he wasnt in the guts much, and nicky dal played more outside than inside. you can also argue wells wont hurt too much considering he barley played the three years before last (hence his rookie price last year) and that didnt stop goldy from going big

Also as much as i love Pruess for us, I'm not sure he'll even play. remember all those talks about Currie a couple years back and he rarely saw time in the ones

Even having Daw in there isn't the perfect scenario for Goldy's output. With the club in rebuild mode I'm predicting things to lighten off for Goldy, wouldn't be surprised if there's a fair bit of experimentation from here.   

[Bully]

Here's the final cut pending rookie selections, the big move is the inclusion of Selwood, Higgins & Ryder for Murphy, Buddy & Greene. I'm hoping such a move has brought in an extra keeper, Higgins has been the best scoring forward in the preseason (TOG) so god willing, I hope he can play out the season and return to a 95 average. Ryder comes in as an extra layer of insurance for Witts but realistically, I would have picked him anyway once his role was established. Such a set up enables me to cull Witts when the time is right and wait for a good buying opportunity with Gawn or Goldy. The other benefit with two ruck forwards is the forward loophole opens up, this will be very handy once Nankervis is pushed to F7. I've also brought in Selwood as I was planning to bring him in for Murphy down the track. Super happy with this team and reckon that Witts has strengthened the line-up no end. All contingencies are now in place in the event he gets dropped.

[Ringo]

Gutsy setup with Witts at R2 as I think Nichols comes in when fit. You have explained reasoning though and sound Plan B.

Just need to watch Rd 9 though with rookies to ensure they have been upgraded - No cover in forward line if not.

Overall sound team with some risks but most mitigated,

[shaker]

Don't understand the reasoning in having both Ryder and Nank in the FWD's both Sandi and Witts can't be moved to the FWD's so you can only move one ruck up to the rucks , would not it be better to just go with one maybe get Taranto or W.H.E and spend the rest to upgrade somewhere else ?

[Bully]

Don't understand the reasoning in having both Ryder and Nank in the FWD's both Sandi and Witts can't be moved to the FWD's so you can only move one ruck up to the rucks , would not it be better to just go with one maybe get Taranto or W.H.E and spend the rest to upgrade somewhere else ?

First point is Witts could be culled at any stage, in which case I will have an immediate replacement & back-up if another ruck isn't ripe for the picking. It's insurance within insurance.

Second point is I want to take advantage of Strnadica as a forward loophole. The plan will be to alternate Ryder & Nank at F7 and attempt to pick off all the 90+ scores.

Third point is Ryder has the potential to to be a top 6 forward this year. The last time he was sole ruck he averaged 105, I don't necessarily expect that type of return but anything north of 95 will be a success.

Fourth point is many people are going with Sandi, Nank & Ryder which is effectively the same set up without having a rookie holding down R2. Witts will be gone by R7 at the latest, hopefully with a 150k profit.

[shaker]

Don't understand the reasoning in having both Ryder and Nank in the FWD's both Sandi and Witts can't be moved to the FWD's so you can only move one ruck up to the rucks , would not it be better to just go with one maybe get Taranto or W.H.E and spend the rest to upgrade somewhere else ?

First point is Witts could be culled at any stage, in which case I will have an immediate replacement & back-up if another ruck isn't ripe for the picking. It's insurance within insurance.

Second point is I want to take advantage of Strnadica as a forward loophole. The plan will be to alternate Ryder & Nank at F7 and attempt to pick off all the 90+ scores.

Third point is Ryder has the potential to to be a top 6 forward this year. The last time he was sole ruck he averaged 105, I don't necessarily expect that type of return but anything north of 95 will be a success.

Fourth point is many people are going with Sandi, Nank & Ryder which is effectively the same set up without having a rookie holding down R2. Witts will be gone by R7 at the latest, hopefully with a 150k profit.

Ha ha sounds a bit complicated to me for everything to fall into place , do you have any cash left ? because you are talking about FWD loopholes and really is Houston going to get a game R1 same with Miles and Parfitt in the mids ?

[Bully]

Don't understand the reasoning in having both Ryder and Nank in the FWD's both Sandi and Witts can't be moved to the FWD's so you can only move one ruck up to the rucks , would not it be better to just go with one maybe get Taranto or W.H.E and spend the rest to upgrade somewhere else ?

First point is Witts could be culled at any stage, in which case I will have an immediate replacement & back-up if another ruck isn't ripe for the picking. It's insurance within insurance.

Second point is I want to take advantage of Strnadica as a forward loophole. The plan will be to alternate Ryder & Nank at F7 and attempt to pick off all the 90+ scores.

Third point is Ryder has the potential to to be a top 6 forward this year. The last time he was sole ruck he averaged 105, I don't necessarily expect that type of return but anything north of 95 will be a success.

Fourth point is many people are going with Sandi, Nank & Ryder which is effectively the same set up without having a rookie holding down R2. Witts will be gone by R7 at the latest, hopefully with a 150k profit.

Ha ha sounds a bit complicated to me for everything to fall into place , do you have any cash left ? because you are talking about FWD loopholes and really is Houston going to get a game R1 same with Miles and Parfitt in the mids ?

Forward loops are very straightforward and very handy towards the end of the season. As far as money goes, I'm fine, I will simply downgrade Selwood to Bont and pick up Barrett or SPP & move Parfitt to the forwards. The rookies are far from finalised.

[Bully]

This is another variation dependent on the rookie situation. Barrett obviously needs to be upgraded first.

[Bully]

With defence rookies looking shaky again think I'm just going to play it safe. Bont to Docherty limits the uncertainty, if Hibberd/EVW don't make the cut then Ben Long comes in. Thought about Watson & Thurlow but that's just one less keeper. Points wise I probably lose with Watson 95 + Thurlow 75 versus Docherty 105 + SPP 60. But a trade is worth more than a few points lost here and there.

[RaisyDaisy]

Ha, and now you have the identical same backline as me

[Bully]

Ha, and now you have the identical same backline as me

I would imagine our teams are fairly similar. Was doing some research on North's likely team and very few had both EVW & Hibberd in the team. Figured it was best to plan around that. Can SPP hold down M8? Certainly hope so, just needs to clean up the clangers. Forwards are rock solid and I think all the rookies are good chances to play. There's also Houston & Butler as back ups.

[Ringo]

Just something to keep an eye on going forward Bully 11 of your current onfield 22 have Rd 13 bye so need to watch with trading.  However in saying that most teams I am seeing will have the same issue with Rd 13 bye me included.
Apart from that Nice Team.

[Bully]

Just something to keep an eye on going forward Bully 11 of your current onfield 22 have Rd 13 bye so need to watch with trading.  However in saying that most teams I am seeing will have the same issue with Rd 13 bye me included.
Apart from that Nice Team.

Note to oneself : hold Hampton & Otten until round 12 (if possible).