Marc Murphy

[gloryboy]

With Beams having to "manage" his injury for the rest of his career, I have somewhat cooled off on having him as a lock this year.

I looked sideways to Marc Murphy who is a similar price.  I had initially put a line through him, but I'm warming up to him again.  In 2011 he was the 5th ranked MID with 118 average.  That was the last season he played 22 games.  In pretty good company too:
Scott Pendlebury   129.2
Gary Ablett   127.1
Dane Swan   122.0
Nick Dal Santo   119.4
Marc Murphy   118.0
Chris Judd   115.5
Matthew Boyd   115.5
Matt Priddis   114.1
Tom Rockliff   113.6
Sam Mitchell   113.5

Previous seasons
Year Games Average
2006 13 70.5
2007 22 80.1
2008 22 99.1
2009 22 112.9
2010 21 111.9
2011 22 118.0
2012 16 112.7
2013 21 92.4
2014 20 106.0
2015 19 103.2
2016 10 79.5

The 118 is probably above his standard season, but could he return to 110+ this year to match seasons 2009-2012?  Seems like he is having the best pre-season in years and is over his injuries from last year, and could replicate what Bryce Gibbs did last year (82 from 2015 up to 106 in 2016).

Or is he an awkward price for someone that could fall outside of the top 10/20 mids?

[shaker]

Not for me got him last year and he stunk before being injured gets tagged to much

[Money Shot]

I see him averaging about 100 which isn't enough to match it with The best. If you're going cheap I would prefer beams.

[LordSneeze]

I see him averaging about 100 which isn't enough to match it with The best. If you're going cheap I would prefer beams.

IMO you need to have 1 of 3 things to pick a midpricer
1 - Bona Fide premium that will be top 15 in that position com years end.
2 - Midpricer that has potential to turn into a premium top 15 in that position, and if not they are still going to make you enough cash to offset the loss in points
3 - Midpricer that is picked more as a top end rookie that will generate enough cash to be upgraded.

1- To be a reliable top 15 mid you need to average 107+ - Murphy doesn't meet that for me, i see anywhere between a 90-105 average
2 - Again i don't see him having any potential to become a top 15 premium and with his price of $472k his cash generation is limited unless he is scoring as a premium, where you'd be keeping anyway.
3 - Nowhere near rookie priced

So really picking him is taking a gamble for him to become a 107+ player, if not you are stuck with a player who's losing you points on the super prems and the possible need for a trade

[quinny88]

His really good years between 09-12 were when Judd was dominating and teams tagged him ahead of Murphy.
Has never looked as good since. Think he could average around 105 but not worth it imo

[Grufflez]

His really good years between 09-12 were when Judd was dominating and teams tagged him ahead of Murphy.
Has never looked as good since. Think he could average around 105 but not worth it imo

Spot on about Judd.
105-108 would be a win for 430k tho.

[Mat0369]

The only worry with Murphy is that Bolton had him playing more of an outside role due to his ball use. Carlton lack guys with polished disposal, something Murphy has in spades. This is a key piece of info from an article written about him over the week

'Murphy has missed one training session in three months, a sharp difference to recent pre-seasons, having assumed the captaincy in 2013.'

He is the fittest he has probably been since 2011 and he didn't have a lot of wear and tear on the body last year due to the ankle injury. He has the ability to turn a game on it's head, but with an outside role you probably see a little less consistency in his scoring. At his price I'm locking him in though.

[Bully]

Beams vs Murphy vs Watson. I will be taking one, just haven't decided yet.

[sammy123]

bloke can't handle a tag

[Mat0369]

bloke can't handle a tag

False. Ben Jacobs is probably looked at as the best tagger going around right now, the last time Murphy was tagged by him he had 26 touches, 1 goal and 117 SC points. Plus teams are rarely tagging now anyway so this has no relevance.

[Mat0369]

Beams vs Murphy vs Watson. I will be taking one, just haven't decided yet.

I have Beams and Murphy at the moment. The main worry with Beams is the knee. He racks up the SC points with the way he plays. If I had to pick one it would be him, just because I don't know the nature of what role Murphy will have. His contested possession numbers were down quite a bit to previous years and that is where points tend to come in spades. If he has a good balance and is able to spread from stoppages he is probably a bargain at the price.

I thought Jobe would retire, he looked like he was cooked prior to the suspensions, he is probably the riskiest pick and the priciest. There is less risk for more points with Beams and Murphy.

[Bully]

Beams vs Murphy vs Watson. I will be taking one, just haven't decided yet.

I have Beams and Murphy at the moment. The main worry with Beams is the knee. He racks up the SC points with the way he plays. If I had to pick one it would be him, just because I don't know the nature of what role Murphy will have. His contested possession numbers were down quite a bit to previous years and that is where points tend to come in spades. If he has a good balance and is able to spread from stoppages he is probably a bargain at the price.

I thought Jobe would retire, he looked like he was cooked prior to the suspensions, he is probably the riskiest pick and the priciest. There is less risk for more points with Beams and Murphy.

I will make the final call after seeing them in the preseason but Jobe has had a year to freshen up, he also has so much to prove after being stripped of the Brownlow. I also think Watson is the most likely to play 22 games.

[shaker]

bloke can't handle a tag

False. Ben Jacobs is probably looked at as the best tagger going around right now, the last time Murphy was tagged by him he had 26 touches, 1 goal and 117 SC points. Plus teams are rarely tagging now anyway so this has no relevance.

He was tagged 4 of his last 6 games last year pretty sure before he got injured I know because I had him and it does affect his scoring he is cheap but can't see him scoring enough , like you said he has good skills and teams know that and think the tags will continue

[Mat0369]

He was tagged 4 of his last 6 games last year pretty sure before he got injured I know because I had him and it does affect his scoring he is cheap but can't see him scoring enough , like you said he has good skills and teams know that and think the tags will continue

He was tagged twice last year. Once against the Pies (24 touches and a goal for 90 SC) and once against the Dons by Crowley (26 touches and a goal for 100 SC). His two really poor scores he was injured in both games. The Dogs he had gastro and then had a head knock which opened him up, in the game against the Cats he had 2 touches and a goal before injuring his ankle (and that was early in the game while being tagged by Guthrie).

Again, his issue for his scoring won't be a tag, he has broken it pretty consistently the last few years, the issue will be his contested possession numbers. He is only getting 5-6 a game off 25 odd touches compared to the 11-12 a game he was getting in the past. That actually helps support my point, the fact his disposal numbers are the same but the uncontested numbers are up means he is getting a free run and if he is getting tagged he is just running away from them. But that change in role means he needs a really high disposal efficiency to supplement the contested numbers he was getting in the past.

[shaker]

He was tagged 4 of his last 6 games last year pretty sure before he got injured I know because I had him and it does affect his scoring he is cheap but can't see him scoring enough , like you said he has good skills and teams know that and think the tags will continue

He was tagged twice last year. Once against the Pies (24 touches and a goal for 90 SC) and once against the Dons by Crowley (26 touches and a goal for 100 SC). His two really poor scores he was injured in both games. The Dogs he had gastro and then had a head knock which opened him up, in the game against the Cats he had 2 touches and a goal before injuring his ankle (and that was early in the game while being tagged by Guthrie).

Again, his issue for his scoring won't be a tag, he has broken it pretty consistently the last few years, the issue will be his contested possession numbers. He is only getting 5-6 a game off 25 odd touches compared to the 11-12 a game he was getting in the past. That actually helps support my point, the fact his disposal numbers are the same but the uncontested numbers are up means he is getting a free run and if he is getting tagged he is just running away from them. But that change in role means he needs a really high disposal efficiency to supplement the contested numbers he was getting in the past.

Oh well good luck with him but I will be going nowhere near him