Touk Miller

[gloryboy]

I'm currently considering Touk Touk Miller in my side.  Have him at F2 at the moment, but he reminds me of Aaron Hall of last 2016.  Is anyone else feeling the same?  Touk Touk is well priced if he can continue his form from second half of 2016 and has a good JLT, but this was exactly what Aaron Hall did in late 2015 and NAB 2016.

thoughts?

[GoLions]

12th biggest lock of the millennium.

[jfitty]

I think he's definitely poised for a breakout season this year.

In the leadership group, and he was racking up some serious possessions and Supercoach points in the back half of last year.

The only thing will be whether he plays pure midfield, or spends some time up forward. Might be one to keep an eye on and bring in down the track.. But could be a handy POD from round 1.

[gloryboy]

12th biggest lock of the millennium.

haha only the 12th?  Just a bit nervous about all the midfielders being added to the side that weren't playing much in 2016.

ie Ablett, Barlow, Jarrad Lyons, Swallow, Rischitelli, Hallahan, Hanley, Aaron Hall, Lonergan

Plus throw in all the rookies too Ainsworth, Bowes, Fiorini, etc

And Ryan Davis...

They've only lost Prestia and O'Meara, who hardly played in 2016

A big 50/50 for me at the moment.

[GoLions]

12th biggest lock of the millennium.

haha only the 12th?  Just a bit nervous about all the midfielders being added to the side that weren't playing much in 2016.

ie Ablett, Barlow, Jarrad Lyons, Swallow, Rischitelli, Hallahan, Hanley, Aaron Hall, Lonergan

Plus throw in all the rookies too Ainsworth, Bowes, Fiorini, etc

And Ryan Davis...

They've only lost Prestia and O'Meara, who hardly played in 2016

A big 50/50 for me at the moment.

He'll play midfield ahead of Hallahan, Hall, Lonergan, Davis, Fiorini + all the new 2017 rookies. Riska will miss half the year with injury. If they're smart, they'll play Hanley off half back. That leaves Ablett (injury prone), Swallow (injury prone), Barlow (may spend a bit of time forward), Lyons (may spend some time forward).

[gloryboy]

This may have swayed me back the other way
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2017-01-24/michael-barlows-sudden-impact-as-he-joins-suns-leadership-group

Barlow has made a big impression since joining the Suns as a delisted free agent in November, while 20-year-old Miller has been earmarked as a potential leader since the day he was drafted.


Eade said Miller's elevation was an endorsement of the leadership capabilities shown over two years by the former Vic Metro captain.

"He has grown and developed as a person, player and leader and we believe Touk will benefit enormously from being part of the leadership group in 2017."

[crowls]

I'm currently considering Touk Touk Miller in my side.  Have him at F2 at the moment, but he reminds me of Aaron Hall of last 2016.  Is anyone else feeling the same?  Touk Touk is well priced if he can continue his form from second half of 2016 and has a good JLT, but this was exactly what Aaron Hall did in late 2015 and NAB 2016.

thoughts?

Big fan of Touk.   your comparison with Hall is justified.    Depending how the JLT goes he is a probable for my starting team.   I see him and Roughy fighting for a berth.

[LordSneeze]

Its a no for me at this stage. Awkwardly priced in the fwds and you woud need him to breakout to into a 100 PPG player be worthwhile.

If he comes out with an 80 average, or low and behold stays around a 70 your in a world of pain and well behind the pack.

Just pay the extra for the locked in premium and upgrade to miller after the early bye if he is playing mids and looks to be that breakout star.

[GoLions]

Its a no for me at this stage. Awkwardly priced in the fwds and you woud need him to breakout to into a 100 PPG player be worthwhile.

If he comes out with an 80 average, or low and behold stays around a 70 your in a world of pain and well behind the pack.

Just pay the extra for the locked in premium and upgrade to miller after the early bye if he is playing mids and looks to be that breakout star.

Why does he need to average 100? Apart from Dahl, there isn't another forward eligible player this year that I'd back in to average 100+ and remain fit (Lids and Nroo can probably do it but both big chances of missing games imo). 90+ from Touk makes it worthwhile, and I reckon he can do that comfortably.

[LordSneeze]

Its a no for me at this stage. Awkwardly priced in the fwds and you woud need him to breakout to into a 100 PPG player be worthwhile.

If he comes out with an 80 average, or low and behold stays around a 70 your in a world of pain and well behind the pack.

Just pay the extra for the locked in premium and upgrade to miller after the early bye if he is playing mids and looks to be that breakout star.

Why does he need to average 100? Apart from Dahl, there isn't another forward eligible player this year that I'd back in to average 100+ and remain fit (Lids and Nroo can probably do it but both big chances of missing games imo). 90+ from Touk makes it worthwhile, and I reckon he can do that comfortably.

Its all personal opinion really.

If you believe that he will be averaging 100+ you gain an advantage on points and save cash, yet if he doesn't reach that level he is still likely to be provide a servicable output by giving you some leeway.
At his price you have no room for error. If the upper benjamins is what a normal premium averages then all your saving is the cash yet your running the risk of the player not performing and being out on points and trades.

So IMO id say Miller has chances to go the below (You may have a different opinion here)
>100 = 5%
90-100 = 25%
80-90 = 50%
<80 = 20%

So from that id say you'd be running a
5% of saving $70k, gaining 5-10 PPG and a few extra wins until people upgrade to him in R10
25% chance of him becomng a premium for a gain of $70k (Cash saved over selecting a Gunston for example)
50% chance of you saving about $50k, but losing 2-3 PPG for the full season due to having to hold him as he floats in that awkward area.
20% chance of him not being worthy and you losing out on Cash, Points, trades and potentially wins.

So for me that is 70% not worth the pick, 25%with a small gain in cash and 5% where it would be really worth it.

[RaisyDaisy]

Love the Touk, but he did well with no Ablett, Swallow, Hanley and Barlow

They'll cut his lunch so I can't see him pushing 90 yet

[sammy123]

Love the Touk, but he did well with no Ablett, Swallow, Hanley and Barlow

They'll cut his lunch so I can't see him pushing 90 yet

was just thinking this then saw this comment

[Keeper27]

Love the Touk, but he did well with no Ablett, Swallow, Hanley and Barlow

They'll cut his lunch so I can't see him pushing 90 yet

[uncleswagy]

i think the ceiling is he'd push low 90s, but with what we have at forward options this year might not be too bad (still not great) if hes a consistent scorer

[Southstorm]

Even if he averages 90, he won't be a keeper and he'll make $80k.

Realistically can't see any reason why anybody would consider him. It's not his year.