Breakout/POD Thread

[fasttrack13]

Thoughts on Thurlow? I think he's only 260-80k

Thurlow should fill the void left by Enright at the cats. I think that's how they are grooming him. He may never reach the heights of Enright. But hopefully he can step up and get a regular game this year. If he does that, he should average at least 75-80 I think. Which after a year out will be massive and a huge increase on his price at the moment. But the cats may ease him back into the season. JLT series to watch and see I guess. Thoughts?

Def agree that he will be groomed to be the next Enright, but I'm worried Tuohy coming in might impact that now

I'm not starting any mid price options myself, but for those that are I think Thurlow is a decent option due to his price. As long as he doesn't get injured again he will make 100k+

definitely monitor pre season considering he did his ACL, cats may wanna ease him back into it either through VFL or limited game time. I'd go as far as saying he could average 80-90 in the run home, worth the 50k over McGrath if you ask me.

[fasttrack13]

J.Lloyd $460,200
For me i feel he's going to be granted a bit more midfield time from absence of Titch rather than Heeney. Heeney is a gun yes, but he's so important to their forward line as that third option because, no offence to sauce rohan, he's not quite up to it... Whereas swans have much more to bring in down back as Lloyd moves into the middle...

[PiPies]

Mitchell gone only leaves so many minutes, at this stage it looks like 4 players are in contention for some mid minutes - Heeney, Mills, Lloyd and Foote.  Pre season games will give us a better idea but that could all change come the real stuff depending on how the structures work forward and back.

[Holz]

my best advice for the year is this.

Most POD/Breakouts will fail.

my biggest POD is having no POD players dragging my team down and that will give me an advantage

[Big Mac]

my best advice for the year is this.

Most POD/Breakouts will fail.

my biggest POD is having no POD players dragging my team down and that will give me an advantage

Agreed.

[PiPies]

Most PODS usually fail, with the forwards looking a bit ordinary this year I might have a crack at one. Too many good 95+ options in defense to mess around there.

[RaisyDaisy]

Only POD's I'm starting are proven guns

[DunnyBrush]

my best advice for the year is this.

Most POD/Breakouts will fail.

my biggest POD is having no POD players dragging my team down and that will give me an advantage

This is the recipe for consistently finishing in the top 500-1k not to win it.

The winner usually always has a player or two that not many others started and by the time you bring them in round 6+ they have the lead they needed.

Agree POD'S are a disaster and never work out-contradiction-but the bloke who has most of the proven/safe option and just starts that guy who gets of to a flyer is the one who wins it.

I think if you select 1 suspect pod based on lots of research but have an exist clause/plan B where in the early rounds you jump off and have allowed salary calculations for this it can be a risk worth taking and being only 1 player you'll probably still be able to rank highly once the easy correction is made.

All POD failures you see people talking about are when they have started 2-4 risky picks hoping 1 or 2 work out.

Research+ start 1 pod - get out early if it doesn't work = winning formula & terrible mathematics    ;D

EDIT: avoiding injuries can not be underestimated either.

[Gigantor]

my best advice for the year is this.

Most POD/Breakouts will fail.

my biggest POD is having no POD players dragging my team down and that will give me an advantage

This is the recipe for consistently finishing in the top 500-1k not to win it.

The winner usually always has a player or two that not many others started and by the time you bring them in round 6+ they have the lead they needed.

Agree POD'S are a disaster and never work out-contradiction-but the bloke who has most of the proven/safe option and just starts that guy who gets of to a flyer is the one who wins it.

I think if you select 1 suspect pod based on lots of research but have an exist clause/plan B where in the early rounds you jump off and have allowed salary calculations for this it can be a risk worth taking and being only 1 player you'll probably still be able to rank highly once the easy correction is made.

All POD failures you see people talking about are when they have started 2-4 risky picks hoping 1 or 2 work out.

Research+ start 1 pod - get out early if it doesn't work = winning formula & terrible mathematics    ;D

EDIT: avoiding injuries can not be underestimated either.

Other than the comment about the injuries I disagree with this mate. Take a look at this article about last years winner. Absolutely nothing special about his initial team, he didn't even start Libba!

http://www.jockreynolds.com.au/2016/09/08/the-giant-killer-analysing-the-winning-supercoach-team-of-2016/

If i remember correctly the 2015 winner had something similar, no outstanding PODs and a few dud picks, Malceski was one.

Pretty much smart aggressive trading and injury luck is the key

[DunnyBrush]

my best advice for the year is this.

Most POD/Breakouts will fail.

my biggest POD is having no POD players dragging my team down and that will give me an advantage

This is the recipe for consistently finishing in the top 500-1k not to win it.

The winner usually always has a player or two that not many others started and by the time you bring them in round 6+ they have the lead they needed.

Agree POD'S are a disaster and never work out-contradiction-but the bloke who has most of the proven/safe option and just starts that guy who gets of to a flyer is the one who wins it.

I think if you select 1 suspect pod based on lots of research but have an exist clause/plan B where in the early rounds you jump off and have allowed salary calculations for this it can be a risk worth taking and being only 1 player you'll probably still be able to rank highly once the easy correction is made.

All POD failures you see people talking about are when they have started 2-4 risky picks hoping 1 or 2 work out.

Research+ start 1 pod - get out early if it doesn't work = winning formula & terrible mathematics    ;D

EDIT: avoiding injuries can not be underestimated either.

Other than the comment about the injuries I disagree with this mate. Take a look at this article about last years winner. Absolutely nothing special about his initial team, he didn't even start Libba!

http://www.jockreynolds.com.au/2016/09/08/the-giant-killer-analysing-the-winning-supercoach-team-of-2016/

If i remember correctly the 2015 winner had something similar, no outstanding PODs and a few dud picks, Malceski was one.

Pretty much smart aggressive trading and injury luck is the key

Your point seems to have merit based on last years winner, a guy a few years back got a jump with Cloak, that backs up what i said,
so i guess i'll have to eat humble pie and admit that my comments are only somewhat correct in certain years.

Now how the flower did that shower team win last year? pisser.
He only had like 7 premo keepers from his original starting squad, only conclusion is everyone else started the same duds/injuries.
Definitely won thru trading.

[Ringo]

my best advice for the year is this.

Most POD/Breakouts will fail.

my biggest POD is having no POD players dragging my team down and that will give me an advantage

This is the recipe for consistently finishing in the top 500-1k not to win it.

The winner usually always has a player or two that not many others started and by the time you bring them in round 6+ they have the lead they needed.

Agree POD'S are a disaster and never work out-contradiction-but the bloke who has most of the proven/safe option and just starts that guy who gets of to a flyer is the one who wins it.

I think if you select 1 suspect pod based on lots of research but have an exist clause/plan B where in the early rounds you jump off and have allowed salary calculations for this it can be a risk worth taking and being only 1 player you'll probably still be able to rank highly once the easy correction is made.

All POD failures you see people talking about are when they have started 2-4 risky picks hoping 1 or 2 work out.

Research+ start 1 pod - get out early if it doesn't work = winning formula & terrible mathematics    ;D

EDIT: avoiding injuries can not be underestimated either.

Other than the comment about the injuries I disagree with this mate. Take a look at this article about last years winner. Absolutely nothing special about his initial team, he didn't even start Libba!

http://www.jockreynolds.com.au/2016/09/08/the-giant-killer-analysing-the-winning-supercoach-team-of-2016/

If i remember correctly the 2015 winner had something similar, no outstanding PODs and a few dud picks, Malceski was one.

Pretty much smart aggressive trading and injury luck is the key

Your point seems to have merit based on last years winner, a guy a few years back got a jump with Cloak, that backs up what i said,
so i guess i'll have to eat humble pie and admit that my comments are only somewhat correct in certain years.

Now how the flower did that shower team win last year? pisser.
He only had like 7 premo keepers from his original starting squad, only conclusion is everyone else started the same duds/injuries.
Definitely won thru trading.

Interesting article - Following through he did not hit the lead until Rd 18. Agressive trading was the key and not waiting for rookies to hit full value as he had a virtual premium team at end of byes and had the luxury of not trading from Rds 18 - 22.  Using Mid pricers to make money was also part of strategy.

[shaker]

I reckon it's about 75% skill and 25% luck to have a chance at winning it , if you do not have any luck dodging injuries , suspensions , and resting's it is virtually impossible and POD's almost always fail if they are mid pricers but a POD gun mid may give you an edge early on and of course the byes you must do some planning with them not doing so and going blind can cost many points

[fasttrack13]

I reckon it's about 75% skill and 25% luck to have a chance at winning it , if you do not have any luck dodging injuries , suspensions , and resting's it is virtually impossible and POD's almost always fail if they are mid pricers but a POD gun mid may give you an edge early on and of course the byes you must do some planning with them not doing so and going blind can cost many points

Also gotta look at opening opportunities for breakout/pods...
Gold Coast, Sydney, North, Hawthorn Midfield
Brisbane, Geelong  Half Back

They're the real openings I see...

Fiorini, Miller, Heeney, Lloyd, Hrovat, Clarke, Cutler, Thurlow, Lovell
Guy i really like the look of is burton for hawthorn, dissapointed he wasn't at his fanplanner price of 160k. Elite kick and can run and carry, seemingly a bit like Jeremy Howe, he leaps for the footy nicely! 264k

Also think priddis and shuey become more relevant than usual this year if smitch is a pure mid

[shaker]

I reckon it's about 75% skill and 25% luck to have a chance at winning it , if you do not have any luck dodging injuries , suspensions , and resting's it is virtually impossible and POD's almost always fail if they are mid pricers but a POD gun mid may give you an edge early on and of course the byes you must do some planning with them not doing so and going blind can cost many points

Also gotta look at opening opportunities for breakout/pods...
Gold Coast, Sydney, North, Hawthorn Midfield
Brisbane, Geelong  Half Back

They're the real openings I see...

Fiorini, Miller, Heeney, Lloyd, Hrovat, Clarke, Cutler, Thurlow, Lovell
Guy i really like the look of is burton for hawthorn, dissapointed he wasn't at his fanplanner price of 160k. Elite kick and can run and carry, seemingly a bit like Jeremy Howe, he leaps for the footy nicely! 264k

Also think priddis and shuey become more relevant than usual this year if smitch is a pure mid

Problem I see with players around the $250k mark is most of the time they score like rookies but cost 100k + more sure there might be one or two that work out but if rookies are available I'll go rookies and if these 250k players light it up in the first 2 rounds I'll get them in with a couple of corrective trades

[Holz]

my best advice for the year is this.

Most POD/Breakouts will fail.

my biggest POD is having no POD players dragging my team down and that will give me an advantage

This is the recipe for consistently finishing in the top 500-1k not to win it.

umm that strategy had me sitting ranked 2nd with 1 round to go. The reason i actually didnt win the comp was i went unique and traded in yarran for a 50 then a 3 (injury) if i stuck without going POD i likely would have won by like 300+ points.

the POD winning comp thing is a total lie. Look at all the top ranked teams they very rarely have any crazy unique in there.

in fact i reckon of the last 5 winners at most 1 had a very unique team i would guess none had.

if you can pick the 5 out of 100 break out players who suceed then you will win SC by 1000+ points.

Good luck though you might as well buy a lotto ticket while your at it, probably a better chance of winning that then SC.